Systems, apparatus and methods for managing demand-response programs and events

ABSTRACT

Apparatus, systems, methods, and related computer program products for managing demand-response programs and events. The systems disclosed include an energy management system in operation with an intelligent, network-connected thermostat located at a structure. The thermostat acquires various information about the residence, such as a thermal retention characteristic of the residence, a capacity of an HVAC associated with the residence to cool or heat the residence, a likelihood of the residence being occupied, a forecasted weather, a real-time weather, and a real-time occupancy. Such information is used to manage the energy consumption of the structure during a demand-response event.

FIELD

This patent specification relates to systems, apparatus, methods, andrelated computer program products for managing demand-response programsand events. More particularly, this patent specification relates totechniques for shifting energy consumption from a window of time duringwhich the cost energy is relatively high to one or more windows of timeduring which the cost of energy is relatively low.

BACKGROUND

Utility companies face ongoing challenges with consistently satisfyingthe demand for electricity. Facilities for generating electricity aretypically well-suited for supplying constant amounts of electricity.However, consumers' demand for electricity is often quite the oppositein that the aggregate electricity demand varies significantly over thecourse of the delay. The daily variance results in one or more ‘peak’demand times or periods in which demand on the utility company isgreatest, and ‘non-peak’ demand times or periods in which demand on theutility company is reduced.

The variance in demand over the course of a day may be impacted by anumber of factors such as weather and living patterns. For example,during the summertime, demand generally tends to increase as the outsidetemperature increases to levels considered uncomfortable as consumersincrease their usage of high consumption appliances such as airconditioning systems. Demand also generally tends to vary based on workhabits, where demand peaks when people leave for work and again whenpeople return from work. During some points in the year, such as duringextremely hot days, demand may reach extreme peaks.

Utility companies have a variety of options for dealing with thevariable demand for energy. They may, for example, increase theirability to satisfy higher peak demands by building additional powerplants. However, the costs of doing so are often prohibitive andbuilding such plants is often inefficient as the added capacity is usedfor only short durations throughout the year. They may buy additionalcapacity from other utility company's or energy providers, but doing sois also costly as such company's may charge a premium and the energytransfer from those other companies is often less efficient. Instead ofincreasing supply, utility companies may also address peak demands byreducing the demand via load shedding.

Load shedding is a technique in which the utility company reduces theamount of energy demanded by its consumers during a period of peakdemand. A variety of load shedding techniques are in use today, most ofwhich are based on the utility company directly controlling the coolingsystems of its consumers. During such peak demand periods the utilitycompany controls the cooling systems to reduce their energy demand. Suchevents, which most often take place on very hot days in the mid-to-lateafternoon and have a duration in the general range of two to six hours,are referenced in the literature by a variety of different names such asload shedding events, load shifting events, and demand response events.The goal of the utility company in carrying out such events is notnecessarily to reduce the total amount of energy consumed over the wholeday, but rather to reduce the peak demand during that particulartwo-to-six hour interval, i.e., during the load shedding interval ordemand-response interval. Typically, the end result is that the energythat would have been consumed during the load shedding interval isinstead consumed in the hours subsequent to the load shedding interval,as the cooling systems of the participating homes work to regain theircooler normal setpoint temperature. Such control, of course, oftencreates an inconvenience to the consumers who sign up to participate insuch a ‘demand response program’ as their cooling system may not cooltheir residence as expected. However, in return for this inconveniencethe consumer is often granted certain benefits, such as more favorablerates for energy consumed outside of the peak demand period.

One common load shedding technique, often referred to as direct loadcontrol, involves the periodic on-and-off cycling of power to thecooling system of each participating customer under the direct controlof the utility during the load shedding period. In such a method, aremotely controllable switch is installed on the cooling system of eachcustomer and is operable to disconnect power to the cooling system underthe direct control of the utility company. The power to the coolingsystem may then be directly controlled by the utility company such thatit is turned off for regular, fixed time intervals during a peak demandperiod. Consumers may express some degree of animosity towards such atechnique, however, as direct load control results in a lack of controlby the consumer of their cooling system, and often results in insidetemperatures that are found to be uncomfortable by the consumer.Deficiencies in the communication link between the utility company andthe switch can worsen the problem, with lost commands from the utilitycompany to the switch to reconnect power to the cooling system resultingin the cooling system undesirably remaining in a disconnected state.Such problems have resulted in some consumers attempting to obviate thecontrol on their cooling system while still attaining the benefits ofparticipating in the demand response program by bypassing the remotelycontrolled switch. As a result, while such “cheaters” may acquire theirdesired individual cooling system control, the effectiveness of theoverall demand response program can be undermined.

Another known load shedding technique involves remote control of thesetpoint temperature of the thermostat of each participating customer bythe utility, wherein the utility sends a common setback value to thethermostats of the participating customers. During the load sheddingperiod, the participating thermostats will control the indoortemperature to a temperature setpoint value that is higher than thenormally scheduled temperature setpoint value by the setback amount.This control by the utility company will typically result in an ambienttemperature that is less comfortable than what the consumers would haveotherwise experienced, but provides the benefit of both energy and costsavings. While providing the potential for increased comfort andacceptance over direct on/off cycling of the power to the cooling systemby the utility, this technique can have disadvantages including lack ofcontrol by the consumer and the utility company's ability to set thesetback value to any value the utility company deems suitable. Moreover,the use of a single setback value for all consumers fails to recognizedifferences in perceptions in comfort, differences in thermalcharacteristics of residences, differences in cooling capacities of thecooling systems, and other differences among the base of participatingcustomers.

U.S. Patent Publication No. 2012/0053745 to Howard Ng discusses a systemand method for establishing load control during a load shedding event.Specifically, Ng discusses a technique that allows a customer or utilityto control a maximum temperature rise under a direct load controlprogram. The customer may set a comfort range on their thermostat thatindicates a range of temperatures from a desired temperature that thecustomer is comfortable with. During a load shedding event, in a hotweather example, a switch on a space conditioning load is activated sothat the space conditioning load undergoes direct load control (i.e.,fixed-width duty cycling). The space conditioning load undergoes directload control until the indoor temperature exceeds the upper value of thecomfort range, at which point control will be transferred from directload control to temperature setback control. One or more issues arise inrelation to each of the above-described load shedding methods that is atleast partially addressed by one or more of the embodiments describedherein. By way of example, although the above described methods ofdirect load control, temperature setback control, and direct loadcontrol followed by temperature setback control will generally result insome amount of reduced energy use during the load shedding event acrossthe base of participating customers, such “one-size-fits-all” approachesto the customer base can result in substantial missed opportunities formore effective load shifting and reduced customer inconvenience. By wayof example and not by way of limitation, such issues and/or missedopportunities can arise with respect to one or more of: predicting withgreater certainty the impact of a particular load shedding strategy forcertain groups or subgroups of participating customers; increasing thetolerability and acceptance of load shedding programs such that morecustomers will be willing to participate; optimizing the load sheddingstrategy for particular groups or subgroups of customers in a mannerthat (i) reduces the amount of customer discomfort per unit of shiftedenergy demand, and/or (ii) increases the amount of shifted energy demandper “unit” of customer discomfort for those groups or subgroups; morereadily identifying the groups or subgroups of customers who would bethe best candidates for participation in any particular load sheddingevent; and more readily assessing the effectiveness of preceding loadshifting event strategies for particular groups or subgroups ofcustomers such that future load shifting events are better optimized.Other issues arise as would be apparent to one skilled in the art uponreading the present disclosure.

BRIEF SUMMARY

Various techniques for managing demand-response programs and events aredisclosed herein. The disclosed techniques include various methods forcarrying out a demand response event via intelligent, network-connecteddevices. In one particular method, an intelligent, network-connectedthermostat performs a number of operations. These operations includecontrolling the operation of a cooling system associated with astructure for a characterization period according to an HVAC schedulefor the thermostat. They also include receiving, for thecharacterization period, information for determining a plurality ofphysical parameters associated with the structure that are at leastpartially determinative of a suitability of the structure forparticipation in a demand response event. The plurality of physicalparameters may include a cooling capacity of the cooling system relativeto a volume of the structure to be cooled by the cooling system, and athermal retention characteristic of the structure. For one embodiment,these physical parameters are determined automatically and according toone or more sensor readings acquired during normal thermostat operation.The method further includes receiving at least one user inputcharacterizing a user amenability to demand response load shifting,receiving a notification of a demand response event interval defined bythe demand response event, receiving a weather forecast indicating apredicted temperature at the location of the structure for the durationof the demand response interval, and determining an occupancyprobability profile for the demand response event interval. The methodalso includes jointly processing information derived from the HVACschedule, the cooling capacity of the cooling system, the thermalretention characteristic, the user amenability to demand response loadshifting, the weather forecast, and the occupancy probability profile to(a) determine whether the structure is qualified to participate in thedemand response event, and (b) determine, if said structure is qualifiedto so participate, a demand response event implementation profileassociated with participation in the demand response event. In the eventthat the structure is determined to be qualified to participate in thedemand response event, the cooling system is controlled according to thedemand response event implementation profile during the demand responseevent interval.

A method for encouraging an energy consumer associated with a structureto participate in a demand response event is also disclosed. The methodincludes accessing a pre-existing HVAC schedule indicating a pluralityof setpoint temperatures, the pre-existing HVAC schedule being operativeto facilitate control of an HVAC system associated with the structure inaccordance with the setpoint temperatures. The method also includes oneor more computer processors determining a demand-response implementationprofile associated with a demand response event period defined by thedemand response event. The demand-response implementation profilecomprises a modified HVAC schedule incorporating one or more changes tothe setpoint temperatures indicated by the pre-existing HVAC scheduleover the demand response event period At least one physical parameterassociated with the structure and that is at least partiallydeterminative of an effectiveness of the structure in supporting a shiftof energy consumption from one time interval to another time interval isdetermined. One or more metrics indicative of an amount of energy likelyto be shifted from the demand response event period to another timeperiod are calculated based on the pre-existing HVAC schedule, thedemand-response implementation profile, and the at least one physicalparameter associated with the structure. The one or more calculatedmetrics are then communicated to the energy consumer.

Disclosed is a method for carrying out demand response for a populationof structures having environmental cooling systems controlled by arespective population of network-connected thermostats. The methodincludes enrolling a plurality of energy consumers to participate in ademand response program, each of the energy consumers being associatedwith one of the population of structures. The method also includesdetermining a demand response event profile defining at least oneattribute of an upcoming demand response event included in the demandresponse program, the at least one attribute including one or more of atime at which the upcoming demand response event is to begin, a demandresponse event period, and a magnitude of the demand response event. Themethod further includes accessing, for each of the plurality of enrolledenergy consumers, at least one qualification factor that is at leastpartially representative of their suitability for participation in theupcoming demand response event. The method further includes identifyinga subset of the plurality of enrolled energy consumers to be offeredparticipation in the upcoming demand response event, the subset beingidentified by processing the qualification factors in conjunction withsaid demand response event profile, and causing an offer to participatein the upcoming demand response event be transmitted to each of theidentified subset of enrolled energy consumers.

In addition to various methods, embodiments are also directed to anintelligent, network-connected thermostat. The thermostat includes auser interface for displaying information to an energy consumerassociated with a structure and receiving user inputs from the energyconsumer, a connector for coupling the thermostat to a cooling systemassociated with the structure, a communications component forcommunicating with a remote server, a memory for storing a demandresponse event implementation profile that defines a plurality ofsetpoint temperatures distributed over a demand response event period ofa demand response event, and a processor coupled to the user interface,the connector, the communications component, and the memory. Theprocessor is operable to perform a number of operations. For example,the processor may control the cooling system to cool the structure inaccordance with the setpoint temperatures defined by the demand responseevent implementation profile over the demand response event period,receive a requested change to one or more of the setpoint temperaturesdefined by the demand response event implementation profile, determinean impact on energy shifting that would result if the requested changeis incorporated into the demand response event implementation profile,and communicate to the energy consumer information indicative of theimpact on energy shifting that would result if the requested change isincorporated into the demand response event implementation profile.

In another embodiment, another intelligent, network-connected thermostatassociated with an energy consumer is disclosed. The thermostat includesa housing defining a shape of the network-connected thermostat andincluding a cavity for receiving one or more components, a connectorcoupled to the housing for electrically connecting the thermostat to acooling system associated with the structure, a communications componentfor communicating with a remote server, and a processor coupled to thecommunications component and the connector. The processor is operable toperform a number of operations. For example, the processor is operableto control the cooling system to cool a structure associated with thethermostat in accordance with a plurality of setpoint temperaturesdefined by a demand response event implementation profile over a demandresponse event period of a demand response event, monitor at least theelectrical connection to the cooling system for tampering activityindicative of an attempt to obviate implementation of the demandresponse event implementation profile, and perform one or more responsesin the event such tampering activity is detected as a result ofmonitoring at least the electrical connection to the cooling system.

For a more complete understanding of the nature and advantages ofembodiments of the present invention, reference should be made to theensuing detailed description and accompanying drawings. Other aspects,objects and advantages of the invention will be apparent from thedrawings and detailed description that follows. However, the scope ofthe invention will be fully apparent from the recitations of the claims.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 depicts a system for implementing demand-response programs andevent management according to an embodiment.

FIG. 2 illustrates an example of a smart home environment within which aportion of the system for implementing demand-response programs andevent management may be implemented according to an embodiment.

FIG. 3A illustrates an example of general device components which can beincluded in an intelligent, network-connected device according to anembodiment.

FIG. 3B illustrates an intelligent, network-connected device having areplaceable module and a docking station according to an embodiment.

FIG. 3C illustrates connection ports and wire insertion sensingcircuitry of an intelligent, network-connected device according to anembodiment.

FIG. 4 illustrates a network-level view of an extensible devices andservices platform with which a smart home environment and systems forimplementing demand-response programs and event management can beintegrated according to an embodiment.

FIG. 5 illustrates an abstracted functional view of the extensibledevices and services platform of FIG. 4.

FIG. 6 is a block diagram of a special-purpose computer system accordingto an embodiment.

FIG. 7 illustrates a process for implementing and managing ademand-response program according to an embodiment.

FIG. 8 illustrates a process for enrolling energy consumers in ademand-response program according to an embodiment.

FIG. 9 illustrates a process for facilitating enrollment of an energyconsumer in a demand-response program via an electronic deviceassociated with the energy consumer according to an embodiment.

FIG. 10 illustrates a process for generating one or more metricsindicative of an amount of energy likely be shifted by an energyconsumer if the energy consumer enrolls and participates in ademand-response program according to an embodiment.

FIGS. 11A through 11C depict a graphical user interface of anintelligent, network-connected thermostat associated with an identifiedenergy consumer receiving and responding to an enrollment requestaccording to an embodiment.

FIG. 12 illustrates process for analyzing a number of factors todetermine whether an enrolled energy consumer is qualified forparticipation in a particular DR event according to an embodiment.

FIG. 13 illustrates a process for identifying enrolled energy consumersto participate in a DR event according to an embodiment.

FIG. 14 illustrates a process for managing the energy consumption ofenergy consumers identified for participation in a DR event according toan embodiment.

FIG. 15 illustrates a process for managing a DR event based on amonitored aggregate energy shifting in accordance with an embodiment.

FIG. 16 illustrates a process for generating a demand-response eventimplementation profile in accordance with an embodiment.

FIG. 17A is an illustration of a DR event and related periods accordingto an embodiment.

FIG. 17B is an illustration of an energy consumers originally scheduledsetpoints as well as DR event-modified overlaying the time periodsdescribed with reference to FIG. 17A according to an embodiment.

FIG. 18A is an illustration depicting a setpoint change type of DR eventinterval energy reduction mechanism according to an embodiment.

FIG. 18B is an illustration depicting a duty cycling change type of DRevent interval energy reduction mechanism according to an embodiment.

FIG. 18C is an illustration depicting a combination setpoint/dutycycling change type of DR event interval energy reduction mechanismaccording to an embodiment.

FIG. 19 illustrates a process for determining whether pre-cooling isappropriate according to an embodiment.

FIG. 20 illustrates a process for determining whether a setback-type DRevent interval energy management mechanism is appropriate according toan embodiment.

FIG. 21 illustrates a process for determining whether a duty cycling DRevent interval energy management mechanism is appropriate according toan embodiment.

FIG. 22 illustrates a process for determining whether post-event energymanagement is appropriate according to an embodiment.

Specifically, FIG. 23 illustrates a process for generating one or moremetrics indicative of an amount of energy likely be shifted by anenrolled energy consumer if the energy consumer participates in ademand-response event according to an embodiment.

FIGS. 24A through 24C illustrate a simplified graphical user interfacefor presenting a DR event notification to an energy consumer accordingto an embodiment.

FIGS. 25A through 25F illustrate a simplified graphical user interfaceof a schedule of setpoints associated with an energy consumer that hasagreed to participate in a DR event according to an embodiment.

FIGS. 26A through 26D illustrate a simplified graphical user interfacefor responding to immediate setpoint changes during a DR event accordingto an embodiment.

FIG. 27 illustrates a process for learning user preferences indicatedduring a DR event according to an embodiment.

FIG. 28 illustrates a particular process for modifying a DRimplementation profile based on user preferences indicated during aprior DR event according to an embodiment.

FIG. 29A illustrates an I/O element including a utility portal summaryaccording to an embodiment.

FIG. 29B illustrates an I/O element including a utility portal providingdetailed energy consumer information according to an embodiment.

FIG. 30A illustrates a process for determining whether an energyconsumer has complied with participation in a DR event according to anembodiment.

FIG. 30B illustrates a process for determining whether tampering of anHVAC wire is indicative of an attempt to obviate DR programmingaccording to an embodiment.

FIG. 31A illustrates a process for an energy management to manage energyin accordance with a bilateral contract between an energy managerassociated with the energy management system and a utility providerassociated with a utility provider computing system according to anembodiment.

FIG. 31B illustrates a process for an energy management to manage energyin accordance with a marked-based sale of energy reduction according toan embodiment.

FIG. 32 illustrates a process for passing and supplementing informationfrom an energy consumption meter to a utility provider computing systemvia an energy management system according to an embodiment.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Embodiments of the present invention generally relate to techniques formanaging demand-response programs and events. The entities in a systemfor managing demand-response programs and events typically include autility provider that provides electrical or other forms of energy froma power source (e.g., an electrical generator) to individual's homes orbusinesses. The individuals typically pay for the amount of energy theyconsume on a periodic, e.g., monthly, basis. In many embodiments anenergy management system is disposed between the utility provider andthe individuals. The energy management system operates to intelligentlyand effectively shift energy consumption of the individuals from oneparticular time period to other time periods. Such energy shifting isusually performed so as to shift energy consumption from a high energycost period to a low energy cost period. In the case of DR events,energy is shifted from the DR event period to time periods outside ofthe DR event period.

The energy management system according to many embodiments includes anintelligent, network-connected thermostat located at the individual'shomes or businesses. Such a thermostat can acquire various informationabout the residence, such as a thermal retention characteristic of theresidence, a capacity of an HVAC associated with the residence to coolor heat the residence, a likelihood of the residence being occupied (viaoccupancy sensors that, over time, can build an occupancy probabilityprofile), a forecasted weather, a real-time weather, a real-timeoccupancy, etc. Moreover, the thermostat can be programmed by its usersor may learn, over time, the preferences and habits of its users to setscheduled setpoints. In exemplary embodiments, a population of suchnetwork-connected thermostats associated with a respective population ofindividual homes and businesses are configured to communicate with oneor more central servers managed by one or more cloud service providers.Each network-connected thermostat is associated with one or moreaccounts managed by the cloud service provider(s), and data is sent backand forth as needed between each network-connected thermostat and thecentral server(s) for providing a variety of advantageousfunctionalities such as facilitating remote control, reporting weatherdata, reporting HVAC control data and status information, and providingthe centralized and/or partially centralized controlling and datacommunications required to carry out the DR-related, time-of-use(TOU)-related, and/or real-time pricing functionalities describedherein.

It is to be appreciated that although some embodiments herein may beparticularly suitable and advantageous for commercial scenarios in which(i) the cloud service provider(s) associated with the population ofnetwork-connected thermostats is/are also the provider(s) of thedescribed energy management system, (ii) the provider(s) of the energymanagement system are separate and distinct business entities from theutilities themselves, and (iii) the energy management system is providedas a value-added service to the utilities, the scope of the presentdescription is in no way limited to such scenarios. In other applicablescenarios, for example, all of the elements can be provided by theutility. In other applicable scenarios, some of the elements can beprovided by the utility while other elements can be provided by agovernmental entity or by miscellaneous combinations of disparatecooperating businesses or consortia. Prior to a DR event, based on awealth of information the energy management system possesses regardingthe residences it is managing, the energy management system caneffectively predict how much energy a residence is likely to consumeover an given period, such as over a DR event. Moreover, given thewealth of information regarding the residences, the energy managementsystem may also generate variations to the residence's baselinethermostat setpoints that can be implemented during the DR event period.The variations can be made so that that the residence consumes lessenergy over the DR event period. Further yet, because of this wealth ofinformation the energy management system has regarding the residences,the energy management system may also accurately predict the amount ofenergy likely to be reduced over the DR event period or, in other words,shifted from the DR event period to one or more time periods outside(e.g., shouldering) the DR event period.

The described provisions for such energy consumption prediction andmanagement brings about many advantages as described furtherhereinbelow. For example, not only does it allow the energy managementsystem to effectively manage the energy consumption of a number ofconnected residences, but it also allows the energy management system tointelligently select a subset of residences from a large pool forparticipation in DR programs or events. The physical characteristics ofresidences and habitual tendencies of occupants of those residents varywidely across regions, and thus the potential energy savings/shiftingalso varies widely. The energy management system disclosed herein mayintelligently choose the participants in an energy savings program tomaximize efficiency and minimize costs.

As the energy management system disclosed herein provides advantageousinsight into energy-related characteristics of various residences onboth individual and aggregate levels, the energy management system mayalso provide portals so that other interested parties, such as utilitycompanies, may similarly have access to such information. As it isgenerally in the interests of the utility company to reduce energyconsumption over a particular time period, the utility company similarlyhas interests in accessing such energy-related characteristics of thevarious residences individually and in the aggregate so as to moreefficiently and effectively generate and manage DR events. Accordingly,in some embodiments, a utility portal is disclosed that enables theutility provider access to consumer-level energy-related information ata variety of levels of detail and complexity, for facilitating botheconomically smart and environmentally responsible decision making onresource planning and utilization.

The specifics of these and other embodiments are further disclosedherein, and a further understanding of which can be appreciated withreference to the figures. Turning now then to the Figures, FIG. 1depicts a system 100 for managing demand-response programs and eventsaccording to an embodiment. System 100 includes a plurality ofelectrical power generators 110A-110N, a utility provider computingsystem 120, an energy management system 130, a communication network140, a plurality of energy consumer residences 150A-150N, and a powerdistribution network 160.

Electrical power generators 110A-110N are operable to generateelectricity or other type of energy (e.g., gas) using one or more of avariety of techniques known in the art. For example, electrical powergenerators 110A-110N may include hydroelectric systems, nuclear powerplants, fossil-fuel based power plants, solar plants, wind plants, gasprocessing plants, etc. The amount of electricity that may be generatedat any given time may limited to some maximum energy supplied that isdetermined by the generators 110A-110N. Further, the electrical powergenerators 110A-110N may be owned and managed by a utility providerimplementing the utility provider computing system 120, or may be ownedand/or managed by one or more third party entities that contract withthe utility provider to provide source energy to customers of theutility provider.

Utility provider computing system 120 is a computing system operable tocommunicate with one or more of the electrical power generators110A-110N, the energy management system 130, and in some embodimentselectronic systems in one or more of the residences 150A-150N. Theutility provider associated with the utility provider company system 120typically manages the distribution of electricity from the electricalpower generators 110A-110N to energy consumers at the residences150A-150N. This management includes ensuring the electricity issuccessfully communicated from the power generators 110A-110N to theresidences 150A-150N, monitoring the amount of energy consumption ateach of the residences 150A-150N, and collecting fees from occupants ofthe residences 150A-150N in accordance with the their respectivemonitored amount of energy consumption. The utility provider computingsystem 120 may perform one or more of the operations described herein,and may include a variety of computer processors, storage elements,communications mechanisms, etc. as further described herein and asnecessary to facilitate the described operations.

Energy management system 130 is a computing system operable tointelligently and efficiently manage the energy consumption at one ormore of the residences 150A-150N while optionally providing reportingand control mechanisms to the utility provider computing system 120. Theenergy management system 130 may be operable to engage in real-timetwo-way communications with electronic devices associated with theresidences 150A-150N via the network 140, as well as in engage inreal-time two-way communications with the utility provider computingsystem 120. In one particular embodiment, the energy management system130 may be operable to reduce the aggregate amount of energy consumed atthe residences 150A-150N so that the aggregate energy demand does notexceed the maximum energy supply limits of the power generators110A-110N. Such reductions may be achieved during any suitable timeperiod through the day. For example, such reductions may be achievedduring a demand-response (DR) event communicated by the utility providercomputing system 120. The energy management system 130 may perform oneor more of the operations described herein, and may include a variety ofcomputer processors, storage elements, communications mechanisms, etc.as further described herein and as necessary to facilitate the describedoperations.

Network 140 is any suitable network for enabling communications betweenvarious entities, such as between one or more components of the energymanagement system 130 and one or more electronic devices associated withone or more of the residences 150A-150N. Such a network may include, forexample, a local area network, a wide-area network, a virtual privatenetwork, the Internet, an intranet, an extranet, a public switchedtelephone network, an infrared network, a wireless network, a wirelessdata network, a cellular network, or any other such wired or wirelessnetwork(s) or combination(s) thereof. The network 140 may, furthermore,incorporate any suitable network topology. Network 140 may utilize anysuitable protocol, and communication over the network 140 may be enabledby wired or wireless connections, and combinations thereof.

Residences 150A-150N are a variety of structures or enclosures that areassociated with energy consumption. The structures may be span a varietyof structure types, such as private residences, houses, apartments,condominiums, schools, commercial properties, single or multi-leveloffice buildings, and/or manufacturing facilities. A number of examplesdescribed herein refer to the structure as being a private residence inthe form of a house, but embodiments are not so limited as one skilledin the art would understand that the techniques described herein couldequally be applicable to other types of structures. It is to beappreciated that, while some embodiments may be particularlyadvantageous for residential living scenarios, the scope of the presentteachings is not so limited and may equally be advantageous for businessenvironments, school environments, government building environments,sports or entertainment arenas, and so forth. Thus, while many of thedescriptions below are set forth in residential living context, it is tobe appreciated that this is for purposes of clarity of description andnot by way of limitation.

The residences 150A-150N typically include one or more energyconsumption devices, which could be electrical energy consumptiondevices such as televisions, microwaves, home audio equipment,heating/cooling systems, laundry machines, dishwashers, etc. Similarly,energy consumption devices could include one or more other types ofenergy consumption devices such as gas consumption devices. For example,the residences 150A-150N may include a natural gas (air/water/etc.)heater, stove, fireplace, etc. The residences 150A-150N in manyembodiments include an intelligent, network connected thermostat that isoperable to control the thermal environment of the residence. Thethermostats may be considered to part of the energy management system130, in that much of the processing subsequently described herein may beperformed by computing systems at the energy management system 130 or bythe thermostats themselves. Alternatively, the thermostats may beconsidered separate from the energy management system 130 due to theirremote geographical location with respect to other components of theenergy management system 130. In either case, electronic devicesassociated with the residences 150A-150N may perform one or more of theoperations described herein, and may include a variety of computerprocessors, storage elements, communications mechanisms, etc. as furtherdescribed herein and as necessary to facilitate the describedoperations. While most embodiments are described in the context ofsituations where it is desired to reduce the temperature inside of thestructure (e.g., during a hot summer), similar principles apply (justapplied in the opposite) in situations where it is desired to increasethe temperature inside of the structure (e.g., during a cold winter).For some embodiments, some or all of the intelligent, network-connectedthermostats may be the same as or similar in functionality to the NESTLEARNING THERMOSTAT® available from Nest Labs, Inc. of Palo Alto, Calif.

Power distribution network 160 is any suitable network for transferringenergy from one or more of the electrical power generators 110A-110N toone or more of the residences 150A-150N. In an electrical distributionnetwork, power distribution network 160 may include a variety of powerlines, substations, pole-mounted transformers, and the like as known inthe for carrying electricity from the electrical power generators110A-110N to the residences 150A-150N. In a gas distribution network,power distribution network 160 may include a variety of compressorstations, storage elements, pipes, and the like for transporting naturalor other types of energy producing gas from the power generators110A-110N (in this embodiment, gas wells and/or processing plants) tothe residences 150A-150N.

System 100 in certain embodiments is a distributed system for managingdemand-response programs and events utilizing several computer systemsand components that are interconnected via communication links using oneor more computer networks or direct connections. However, it will beappreciated by those skilled in the art that such a system could operateequally well in a system having fewer or a greater number of componentsthan are illustrated in FIG. 1. Thus, the depiction of system 100 inFIG. 1 should be taken as being illustrative in nature, and not aslimiting the scope of the present teachings.

FIG. 2 illustrates an example of a smart home environment 200 withinwhich one or more of the devices, methods, systems, services, and/orcomputer program products described further herein can be applicable.The depicted smart home environment includes a structure 250, which caninclude, e.g., a house, office building, garage, or mobile home. In someembodiments, the structure 250 may correspond to one of structures150A-150N described with reference to FIG. 1. In addition to thestructure 250, the smart home environment 200 also includes a network262 and remote server 264 which, in one embodiment, respectivelycorrespond to network 140 and energy management system 130 (FIG. 1).While the structure 250 as depicted includes a variety of components anddevices as further described herein, a number of components and devices,such as pool heater 214, irrigation system 216, and access device 266may also be associated with (e.g., powered at) the structure 250 withoutbeing physically attached or disposed within or on the structure 250.

The smart home environment 200 includes a plurality of rooms 252,separated at least partly from each other via walls 254. The walls 254can include interior walls or exterior walls. Each room can furtherinclude a floor 256 and a ceiling 258. Devices can be mounted on,integrated with and/or supported by a wall 254, floor 256 or ceiling258. The various devices that may be incorporated within the smart homeenvironment 200 include intelligent, multi-sensing, network-connecteddevices that can integrate seamlessly with each other and/or withcloud-based server systems to provide any of a variety of useful smarthome objectives. An intelligent, multi-sensing, network-connectedthermostat 202 can detect ambient climate characteristics (e.g.,temperature and/or humidity) and control a heating, ventilation andair-conditioning (HVAC) system 203. One or more intelligent,network-connected, multi-sensing hazard detection units 204 can detectthe presence of a hazardous substance and/or a hazardous condition inthe home environment (e.g., smoke, fire, or carbon monoxide). One ormore intelligent, multi-sensing, network-connected entryway interfacedevices 206, which can be termed a “smart doorbell”, can detect aperson's approach to or departure from a location, control audiblefunctionality, announce a person's approach or departure via audio orvisual means, or control settings on a security system (e.g., toactivate or deactivate the security system).

In some embodiments, the smart home may include at least one energyconsumption meter 218 such as a smart meter. The energy consumptionmeter 218 monitors some or all energy (electricity, gas, etc.) consumedby the devices in and around the structure 250. The energy consumptionmeter 218 may display the amount of energy consumed over a given periodof time on a surface of the meter 218. The given period may be, e.g., asecond, a minute, an hour, a day, a month, a time span less than onesecond, a time span greater than a month, or a time span between onesecond and one month. In some embodiments, the energy consumption meter218 may include communication capabilities (wired or wireless) thatenable the meter 218 to communicate various information, e.g., theamount of energy consumed over one or more given periods, the price ofenergy at any particular time or during any particular period of time,etc. The communication capabilities may also enable the meter to receivevarious information. For example, the meter may receive instructions forcontrolling one or more devices in the smart home such as the HVACsystem 203, the price of energy at any particular time or during anyparticular period of time, etc. To facilitate control of devices in andaround the structure 250, the meter 218 may be wired or wirelesslyconnected to such devices.

Each of a plurality of intelligent, multi-sensing, network-connectedwall light switches 208 can detect ambient lighting conditions, detectroom-occupancy states and control a power and/or dim state of one ormore lights. In some instances, light switches 208 can further oralternatively control a power state or speed of a fan, such as a ceilingfan. Each of a plurality of intelligent, multi-sensing,network-connected wall plug interfaces 210 can detect occupancy of aroom or enclosure and control supply of power to one or more wall plugs(e.g., such that power is not supplied to the plug if nobody is athome). The smart home may further include a plurality of intelligent,multi-sensing, network-connected appliances 212, such as refrigerators,stoves and/or ovens, televisions, washers, dryers, lights (inside and/oroutside the structure 250), stereos, intercom systems, garage-dooropeners, floor fans, ceiling fans, whole-house fans, wall airconditioners, pool heaters 214, irrigation systems 216, securitysystems, and so forth. While descriptions of FIG. 2 can identifyspecific sensors and functionalities associated with specific devices,it will be appreciated that any of a variety of sensors andfunctionalities (such as those described throughout the specification)can be integrated into the device.

In addition to containing processing and sensing capabilities, each ofthe devices within the smart home environment 200 can be capable of datacommunications and information sharing with any other devices within thesmart home environment 200, as well as to any devices outside the smarthome environment 240 such as the access device 266 and/or remote server264. The devices can send and receive communications via any of avariety of custom or standard wireless protocols (Wi-Fi, ZigBee,6LoWPAN, IR, IEE 802.11, IEEE 802.15.4, etc.) and/or any of a variety ofcustom or standard wired protocols (CAT6 Ethernet, HomePlug, etc.). Thewall plug interfaces 210 can serve as wireless or wired repeaters,and/or can function as bridges between (i) devices plugged into ACoutlets and communicating using Homeplug or other power line protocol,and (ii) devices that are not plugged into AC outlets.

For example, a first device can communicate with a second device via awireless router 260. A device can further communicate with remotedevices via a connection to a network, such as the network 262. Throughthe network 262, the device can communicate with a central (i.e.,remote) server or a cloud-computing system 264. The remote server orcloud-computing system 264 can be associated with a manufacturer,support entity or service provider associated with the device. In oneembodiment, a user may be able to contact customer support using adevice itself rather than needing to use other communication means suchas a telephone or Internet-connected computer.

Devices' network connections can further allow a user to interact withthe device even if the user is not proximate to the device. For example,a user can communicate with a device (e.g., thermostat 202) using acomputer (e.g., a desktop computer, laptop computer, or tablet) or otherportable electronic device (e.g., a smartphone) 266. A webpage or appcan be configured to receive communications from the user and controlthe device based on the communications and/or to present informationabout the device's operation to the user. For example, when the portableelectronic device 266 is being used to interact with the thermostat 202,the user can view a current setpoint temperature for a thermostat andadjust it using the portable electronic device 266. The user can be inthe structure during this remote communication or outside the structure.The communications between the portable electronic device 266 and thethermostat 202 may be routed via the remote server 264 (e.g., when theportable electronic device 266 is remote from structure 250) or, in someembodiments, may be routed exclusive of the remote server 264.

The smart home environment 200 also can include a variety ofnon-communicating legacy appliances 240, such as old conventionalwasher/dryers, refrigerators, and the like which can be controlled,albeit coarsely (ON/OFF), by virtue of the wall plug interfaces 210. Thesmart home can further include a variety of partially communicatinglegacy appliances 242, such as IR-controlled wall air conditioners orother IR-controlled devices, which can be controlled by IR signalsprovided by the hazard detection units 204 or the light switches 208 or,in some embodiments, by using socket-based communication protocol suchas powerline to communicate via a wall plug interface 210.

It should be recognized that some or all of the components locatedinside and outside of structure 250 may be considered part of energymanagement system 130 depending on the embodiment. In general, devicesor components which facilitate control of other energy consumptiondevices may be considered to be part of energy management system 130.For example, thermostat 202 and access device 266 may be part of energymanagement system 130 while HVAC 203, while high energy consumingcomponents such as HVAC 203, pool heater 214, and legacy appliances 240may be considered external to energy management system 130 as theycomprise energy consuming elements that are controllable by thethermostat 202 and access device 266. In other examples, however,additional or alternative components of smart home environment 200 maybe considered part of energy management system 130, such as hazarddetection units 204, entryway interface devices 206, light switches 208,plug interface 210, etc., as they may provide monitoring (and/orcontrol) functionality for the energy management system 130 to assistthe system 130 in making intelligent energy management decisions. In yetother examples, none of the devices of the smart home environment(except for remote server 264) may be part of energy management system130, but rather one or more of the devices of the smart home environment200 may be submissive devices that are remotely controlled by energymanagement system 130 to perform monitoring and/or energy consumptiontasks.

Smart home 200 in certain embodiments is an environment including anumber of client devices and access devices all operable to communicatewith one another as well as with devices or systems external to thesmart home 200 such as remote server 264. However, it will beappreciated by those skilled in the art that such an environment couldoperate equally well having fewer or a greater number of components thanare illustrated in FIG. 2. One particular example of a smart-homeenvironment including various elements having differing functionality isdescribed in detail in U.S. Provisional Patent Application No.61/704,437, filed Sep. 21, 2012, the entire contents of which areincorporated by reference herein in their entirety for all purposes.Thus, the depiction of the smart home environment 200 in FIG. 2 shouldbe taken as being illustrative in nature, and not limiting to the scopeof the present teachings.

FIG. 3A illustrates an example of general device components which can beincluded in an intelligent, network-connected device 300 (i.e.,“device”). Device 300 may be implemented as one or more of the variousdevices discussed with reference to FIG. 2, such as thermostat 202,hazard detection unit 204, entryway interface device 206, wall lightswitch 208, wall plug interface 210, etc. Much of the followingdiscussion presents the device 300 as being a thermostat 202, but itshould be recognized that embodiments are not so limited. Each of one,more or all devices 300 within a system of devices can include one ormore sensors 302, a user-interface component 304, a power supply (e.g.,including a power connection 306 and/or battery 308), a communicationscomponent 310, a modularity unit (e.g., including a docking station 312and replaceable module 314), intelligence components 316, and tamperdetection circuitry 318. Particular sensors 302, user-interfacecomponents 304, power-supply configurations, communications components310, modularity units, intelligence components 316, and/or wire tamperdetection circuitry 318 can be the same or similar across devices 300 orcan vary depending on device type or model.

By way of example and not by way of limitation, one or more sensors 302in a device 300 may be able to, e.g., detect acceleration, temperature,humidity, water, supplied power, proximity, external motion, devicemotion, sound signals, ultrasound signals, light signals, fire, smoke,carbon monoxide, global-positioning-satellite (GPS) signals, orradio-frequency (RF) or other electromagnetic signals or fields. Thus,for example, sensors 302 can include temperature sensor(s), humiditysensor(s), hazard-related sensor(s) or other environmental sensor(s),accelerometer(s), microphone(s), optical sensors up to and includingcamera(s) (e.g., charged-coupled-device or video cameras), active orpassive radiation sensors, GPS receiver(s) or radio-frequencyidentification detector(s). While FIG. 3A illustrates an embodiment witha single sensor, many embodiments will include multiple sensors. In someinstances, device 300 includes one or more primary sensors and one ormore secondary sensors. The primary sensor(s) can sense data central tothe core operation of the device (e.g., sensing a temperature in athermostat or sensing smoke in a smoke detector). The secondarysensor(s) can sense other types of data (e.g., motion, light or sound),which can be used for energy-efficiency objectives or smart-operationobjectives. In some instances, an average user may even be unaware of anexistence of a secondary sensor.

One or more user-interface components 304 in device 300 may beconfigured to present information to a user via a visual display (e.g.,a thin-film-transistor display or organic light-emitting-diode display)and/or an audio speaker. User-interface component 304 can also includeone or more user-input components to receive information from a user,such as a touchscreen, buttons, scroll component (e.g., a movable orvirtual ring component), microphone or camera (e.g., to detectgestures). In one embodiment, user-interface component 304 includes aclick-and-rotate annular ring component, wherein a user can interactwith the component by rotating the ring (e.g., to adjust a setting)and/or by clicking the ring inwards (e.g., to select an adjusted settingor to select an option). In another embodiment, user-input component 304includes a camera, such that gestures can be detected (e.g., to indicatethat a power or alarm state of a device is to be changed).

A power-supply component in device 300 may include a power connection306 and/or local battery 308. For example, power connection 306 canconnect device 300 to a power source such as a line voltage source. Insome instances, connection 306 to an AC power source can be used torepeatedly charge a (e.g., rechargeable) local battery 308, such thatbattery 308 can later be used to supply power if needed in the event ofan AC power disconnection or other power deficiency scenario.

A communications component 310 in device 300 can include a componentthat enables device 300 to communicate with a central server, such asremote server 264, or a remote device, such as another device 300described herein or a portable user device. Communications component 310can allow device 300 to communicate using one or more wired or wirelesscommunication techniques, either simultaneously or sequentially, such asWi-Fi, ZigBee, 3G/4G wireless, IEEE 802.11, IEEE 802.15.4, 6-LO-PAN,Bluetooth, CAT6 wired Ethernet, HomePlug or other powerlinecommunications method, telephone, or optical fiber, by way ofnon-limiting examples. Communications component 310 can include one ormore wireless cards, Ethernet plugs, or other transceiver connections.In some embodiments, the communications component 310 facilitatescommunication with a central server to synchronize information betweendevice 300, the central server, and in some cases additional devices.Techniques for synchronization data between such devices are furtherdescribed in the commonly assigned U.S. patent application Ser. No.13/624,892 (client reference number NES0231), filed Sep. 22, 2012, thecontents of which are incorporated by reference in their entirety forall purposes.

A modularity unit in device 300 can include a static physicalconnection, and a replaceable module 314. Thus, the modularity unit canprovide the capability to upgrade replaceable module 314 withoutcompletely reinstalling device 300 (e.g., to preserve wiring). Thestatic physical connection can include a docking station 312 (which mayalso be termed an interface box) that can attach to a buildingstructure. For example, docking station 312 could be mounted to a wallvia screws or stuck onto a ceiling via adhesive. Docking station 312can, in some instances, extend through part of the building structure.For example, docking station 312 can connect to wiring (e.g., to 120Vline voltage wires) behind the wall via a hole made through a wall'ssheetrock. Docking station 312 can include circuitry such aspower-connection circuitry 306 and/or AC-to-DC powering circuitry andcan prevent the user from being exposed to high-voltage wires. Dockingstation 312 may also or alternatively include control circuitry foractuating (i.e., turning on and off) elements of an HVAC system, such asa heating unit (for heating the building structure), an air-conditionunit (for cooling the building structure), and/or a ventilation unit(for circulating air throughout the building structure). In someinstances, docking stations 312 are specific to a type or model ofdevice, such that, e.g., a thermostat device includes a differentdocking station than a smoke detector device. In some instances, dockingstations 312 can be shared across multiple types and/or models ofdevices 300.

Replaceable module 314 of the modularity unit can include some or allsensors 302, processors, user-interface components 304, batteries 308,communications components 310, intelligence components 316 and so forthof the device. Replaceable module 314 can be configured to attach to(e.g., plug into or connect to) docking station 312. In some instances,a set of replaceable modules 314 are produced with the capabilities,hardware and/or software, varying across the replaceable modules 314.Users can therefore easily upgrade or replace their replaceable module314 without having to replace all device components or to completelyreinstall device 300. For example, a user can begin with an inexpensivedevice including a first replaceable module with limited intelligenceand software capabilities. The user can then easily upgrade the deviceto include a more capable replaceable module. As another example, if auser has a Model #1 device in their basement, a Model #2 device in theirliving room, and upgrades their living-room device to include a Model #3replaceable module, the user can move the Model #2 replaceable moduleinto the basement to connect to the existing docking station. The Model#2 replaceable module may then, e.g., begin an initiation process inorder to identify its new location (e.g., by requesting information froma user via a user interface).

Intelligence components 316 of the device can support one or more of avariety of different device functionalities. Intelligence components 316generally include one or more processors configured and programmed tocarry out and/or cause to be carried out one or more of the advantageousfunctionalities described herein. The intelligence components 316 can beimplemented in the form of general-purpose processors carrying outcomputer code stored in local memory (e.g., flash memory, hard drive,random access memory), special-purpose processors orapplication-specific integrated circuits, combinations thereof, and/orusing other types of hardware/firmware/software processing platforms.The intelligence components 316 can furthermore be implemented aslocalized versions or counterparts of algorithms carried out or governedremotely by central servers or cloud-based systems, such as by virtue ofrunning a Java virtual machine (JVM) that executes instructions providedfrom a cloud server using Asynchronous Javascript and XML (AJAX) orsimilar protocols. By way of example, intelligence components 316 can beintelligence components 316 configured to detect when a location (e.g.,a house or room) is occupied, up to and including whether it is occupiedby a specific person or is occupied by a specific number and/or set ofpeople (e.g., relative to one or more thresholds). Such detection canoccur, e.g., by analyzing microphone signals, detecting user movements(e.g., in front of a device), detecting openings and closings of doorsor garage doors, detecting wireless signals, detecting an IP address ofa received signal, or detecting operation of one or more devices withina time window. Intelligence components 316 may include image-recognitiontechnology to identify particular occupants or objects.

In some instances, intelligence components 316 can be configured topredict desirable settings and/or to implement those settings. Forexample, based on the presence detection, intelligence components 316can adjust device settings to, e.g., conserve power when nobody is homeor in a particular room or to accord with user preferences (e.g.,general at-home preferences or user-specific preferences). As anotherexample, based on the detection of a particular person, animal or object(e.g., a child, pet or lost object), intelligence components 316 caninitiate an audio or visual indicator of where the person, animal orobject is or can initiate an alarm or security feature if anunrecognized person is detected under certain conditions (e.g., at nightor when lights are out). As yet another example, intelligence components316 can detect hourly, weekly or even seasonal trends in user settingsand adjust settings accordingly. For example, intelligence components316 can detect that a particular device is turned on every week day at6:30 am, or that a device setting is gradually adjusted from a highsetting to lower settings over the last three hours. Intelligencecomponents 316 can then predict that the device is to be turned on everyweek day at 6:30 am or that the setting should continue to graduallylower its setting over a longer time period.

In some instances, devices can interact with each other such that eventsdetected by a first device influences actions of a second device. Forexample, a first device can detect that a user has pulled into a garage(e.g., by detecting motion in the garage, detecting a change in light inthe garage or detecting opening of the garage door). The first devicecan transmit this information to a second device, such that the seconddevice can, e.g., adjust a home temperature setting, a light setting, amusic setting, and/or a security-alarm setting. As another example, afirst device can detect a user approaching a front door (e.g., bydetecting motion or sudden light-pattern changes). The first device can,e.g., cause a general audio or visual signal to be presented (e.g., suchas sounding of a doorbell) or cause a location-specific audio or visualsignal to be presented (e.g., to announce the visitor's presence withina room that a user is occupying).

Tamper detection circuitry 318 may be part or separate from intelligencecomponents 316. Tamper detection circuitry 318 may include softwareand/or hardware operable to detect tampering of the device 300.Tampering may include, e.g., a disconnect between the device 300 and theHVAC indicative of a user attempt to obviate HVAC control by the remoteserver during a DR event, a change in impedance or power consumption bythe HVAC indicative of a user attempt to obviate HVAC control by theremote server during a DR event, etc.

FIG. 3B illustrates an intelligent, network-connected device 300 havinga replaceable module 314 (e.g., a head unit) and a docking station 312(e.g., a back plate) for ease of installation, configuration, andupgrading according to some embodiments. As described hereinabove,device 300 may be wall mounted, have a circular shape, and have an outerrotatable ring 320 (that may be, e.g., part of user interface 304) forreceiving user input. Outer rotatable ring 320 allows the user to makeadjustments, such as selecting a new target temperature. For example, byrotating outer ring 320 clockwise, a target setpoint temperature can beincreased, and by rotating the outer ring 320 counter-clockwise, thetarget setpoint temperature can be decreased. Changes to an existingsetpoint temperature that reflect a desire for the temperature in thestructure to be immediately changed to that setpoint temperature mayherein be referred to as “immediate setpoint temperature”. This is incontrast to setpoint temperatures that may be provided in a hourly,daily, weekly, monthly, or other schedule in which setpoint temperaturesmay reflect desire for future temperatures in the structure. Suchsetpoint temperatures may herein be referred as “scheduled setpointtemperature”.

Device 300 has a cover 322 that includes a display 324 (that may be,e.g., part of user interface 304). Head unit 314 slides onto back plate312. Display 324 may display a variety of information depending on,e.g., a current operational state of the device 300, direct userinteraction with the device via ring 320, sensed presence of the uservia, e.g., a proximity sensor 302 (such as a passive infrared motionsensor), remote user interaction with the device via a remote accessdevice, etc. For example, display 324 may display central numerals thatare representative of a current setpoint temperature.

According to some embodiments the connection of the head unit 314 toback plate 312 can be accomplished using magnets, bayonet, latches andcatches, tabs or ribs with matching indentations, or simply friction onmating portions of the head unit 314 and back plate 312. According tosome embodiments, the head unit 314 includes battery 308, communicationscomponent 310, intelligence components 316, and a display driver 326(that may be, e.g., part of user interface 304). Battery 308 may berecharged using recharging circuitry (that may be, e.g., part ofintelligence components 316 and/or may be included in the back plate312) that uses power from the back plate 312 that is either obtained viapower harvesting (also referred to as power stealing and/or powersharing) from the HVAC system control circuit(s) or from a common wire,if available, as described in further detail in commonly assignedco-pending U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/034,674 (client referencenumber NES0006) and Ser. No. 13/034,678 (client reference numberNES0007), both filed Feb. 24, 2011, and U.S. patent application Ser. No.13/267,871 (client reference number NES0158), filed Oct. 6, 2011, all ofwhich are incorporated by reference herein in their entirety for allpurposes. According to some embodiments, battery 308 is a rechargeablesingle cell lithium-ion, or a lithium-polymer battery.

Back plate 312 includes electronics 330 and a temperature sensor 332(that may be, e.g., one of sensors 302) in housing 334, which areventilated via vents 336. Temperature sensor 332 allows the back plate312 to operate as a fully functional thermostat even when not connectedto the head unit 314. Wire connectors 338 are provided to allow forconnection to HVAC system wires, such as connection to wires foractuating components of the HVAC system, wires for receiving power fromthe HVAC system, etc. Connection terminal 340 is a male or female plugconnector that provides electrical connections between the head unit 314and back plate 312. Various arrangements for connecting to andcontrolling an HVAC system are further described in U.S. patentapplication Ser. Nos. 13/034,674 and 13/034,678, supra.

In some embodiments, the back plate electronics 330 includes an MCUprocessor, and driver circuitry for opening and closing the HVAC controlcircuits, thereby turning on and turning off the one or more HVACfunctions such as heating and cooling. The electronics 330 also includesflash memory which is used to store a series of programmed settings thattake effect at different times of the day, such that programmed setpoint(i.e., desired temperature) changes can be carried out even when thehead unit 314 is not attached to the back plate 312. According to someembodiments, the electronics 330 also includes power harvestingcircuitry (that may be in addition or alternatively to that provided inhead unit 314) to obtain power from the HVAC control circuit(s) evenwhen an HVAC common power wire is not available. In various embodiments,tamper detection circuitry 318 (FIG. 3A) may also be incorporated in oneor more of the head unit 314 and back plate 312 such that tampering maybe detected regardless of whether the head unit 314 is coupled to theback plate 312.

FIG. 3C illustrates a conceptual diagram of the device 300 withparticular reference to the wire connectors 338 and tamper detectioncircuitry 318. It is to be appreciated that the wire connectors 338 andtamper detection circuitry 318 can, in whole or in part, be separably orinseparably integral with the main body of the device 300 withoutdeparting from the scope of the present teachings. Thus, for example,for one embodiment the wire connectors 338 and tamper detectioncircuitry 318 can be inseparably integral with the main body of thedevice 300, with the HVAC wires being inserted directly into the backbefore placement on the wall as a single monolithic unit. In anotherembodiment, the wire connectors 338 and tamper detection circuitry 318can be located in a wall plate unit to which the main body of thethermostat attaches, it being understood that references herein to theinsertion of wires into the thermostat encompass embodiments in whichthe wires are inserted into the wall plate and the main body is attachedto the wall plate to form the completed device 300.

As illustrated in FIG. 3C, each wire connector 338 is associated with apredetermined HVAC signal type. For one embodiment that has been foundto provide an optimal balance between simplicity of installation fordo-it-yourselfers and a reasonably broad retrofit applicability for alarge number of homes, there are eight (8) wire connectors 338 provided,which are dedicated respectively to a selected group of HVAC signaltypes consisting of heating call power (Rh), heating call (W1), coolingcall (Y1), fan call (G), common (C), heat pump (O/B), auxiliary (AUX),and heating call power (Rh). Preferably, the device 300 is of a“jumperless” type according to the commonly assigned U.S. Ser. No.13/034,674, supra, such that (i) the Rh and Rc connection portsautomatically remain shunted together for cases in which there is asingle call power wire provided by the HVAC system, one or the otherconnection port receiving a single call power wire (which might belabeled R, V, Rh, or Rc depending on the particular HVAC installation),and (ii) the Rh and Rc connection ports are automatically electricallysegregated for cases in which there are dual call power wires providedby the HVAC system that are inserted.

According to one embodiment, tamper detection circuitry 318 includes,for each wire connector 338, a port sensing circuit 342 thatcommunicates with the back plate electronics 330 over a pair ofelectrical leads 344. Although the port sensing circuit 342 can operatein a variety of different ways without departing from the scope of thepresent teachings, in one embodiment the control port sensing circuit342 comprises a two-position switch (not shown) coupled to theelectrical leads 344, the two-position switch being closed to short theelectrical leads 344 together when no wire has been inserted into theassociated wire connector 338, the two-position switch beingmechanically urged into an open position to electrically segregate theelectrical leads 344 when a wire is inserted into the associated wireconnector 338. The back plate electronics 330 thereby is able to readilysense when a wire is inserted into the connection port by virtue of theshorted or open state of the electrical leads 344. One particularlyadvantageous configuration that implements the combined functionality ofthe wire connector 338 and the port sensing circuit 342 is described inthe commonly assigned U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/034,666(client reference number NES0035), filed Feb. 24, 2011, the contents ofwhich are incorporated by reference in their entirety for all purposes.

Device 300 in certain embodiments is an intelligent, network-connectedlearning thermostat that includes various components such as a headunit, a back plate, a user interface, communications components,intelligent components, etc. However, it will be appreciated by thoseskilled in the art that devices that perform the various operationsdescribed herein could operate equally well with fewer or a greaternumber of components than are illustrated in FIGS. 3A through 3C. Forexample, the device 300 may be be formed as a single unit rather thanmultiple modules, may include more or fewer components than describedwith reference to FIG. 3A, and may include more or fewer components thandescribed with reference to FIG. 3C. For example, the device 300 may beformed as described in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/624,878,filed Sep. 21, 2012, and/or as described in U.S. patent application Ser.No. 13/632,148, filed Sep. 30, 2012, both of which are incorporatedherein by reference in their entirety for all purposes.

Thus, the depiction of device 300 in FIGS. 3A through 3C should be takenas being illustrative in nature, and not limiting to the scope of thepresent teachings.

FIG. 4 illustrates a network-level view of an extensible devices andservices platform with which the smart home of FIGS. 1 and/or 2 and/orthe device of FIGS. 3A through 3C can be integrated. Each of theintelligent, network-connected devices discussed previously withreference to structure 250 can communicate with one or more remoteservers or cloud computing systems 264. The communication can be enabledby establishing connection to the network 262 either directly (forexample, using 3G/4G connectivity to a wireless carrier), though ahubbed network (which can be a scheme ranging from a simple wirelessrouter, for example, up to and including an intelligent, dedicatedwhole-home control node), or through any combination thereof.

The remote server or cloud-computing system 264 can collect operationdata 302 from the smart home devices. For example, the devices canroutinely transmit operation data or can transmit operation data inspecific instances (e.g., when requesting customer support). The remoteserver or cloud-computing architecture 264 can further provide one ormore services 404. The services 404 can include, e.g., software updates,customer support, sensor data collection/logging, remote access, remoteor distributed control, or use suggestions (e.g., based on collectedoperation data 404 to improve performance, reduce utility cost, etc.).Data associated with the services 304 can be stored at the remote serveror cloud-computing system 264 and the remote server or cloud-computingsystem 264 can retrieve and transmit the data at an appropriate time(e.g., at regular intervals, upon receiving request from a user, etc.).

One salient feature of the described extensible devices and servicesplatform, as illustrated in FIG. 4, is a processing engine 406, whichcan be concentrated at a single data processing server 407 (which may beincluded in or separate from remote server 264) or distributed amongseveral different computing entities without limitation. Processingengine 406 can include engines configured to receive data from a set ofdevices (e.g., via the Internet or a hubbed network), to index the data,to analyze the data and/or to generate statistics based on the analysisor as part of the analysis. The analyzed data can be stored as deriveddata 408. Results of the analysis or statistics can thereafter betransmitted back to a device providing ops data used to derive theresults, to other devices, to a server providing a webpage to a user ofthe device, or to other non-device entities. For example, usestatistics, use statistics relative to use of other devices, usepatterns, and/or statistics summarizing sensor readings can betransmitted. The results or statistics can be provided via the network262. In this manner, processing engine 406 can be configured andprogrammed to derive a variety of useful information from theoperational data obtained from the smart home. A single server caninclude one or more engines.

The derived data can be highly beneficial at a variety of differentgranularities for a variety of useful purposes, ranging from explicitprogrammed control of the devices on a per-home, per-neighborhood, orper-region basis (for example, demand-response programs for electricalutilities), to the generation of inferential abstractions that canassist on a per-home basis (for example, an inference can be drawn thatthe homeowner has left for vacation and so security detection equipmentcan be put on heightened sensitivity), to the generation of statisticsand associated inferential abstractions that can be used for governmentor charitable purposes. For example, the processing engine 406 cangenerate statistics about device usage across a population of devicesand send the statistics to device users, service providers or otherentities (e.g., that have requested or may have provided monetarycompensation for the statistics). As specific illustrations, statisticscan be transmitted to charities 422, governmental entities 424 (e.g.,the Food and Drug Administration or the Environmental ProtectionAgency), academic institutions 426 (e.g., university researchers),businesses 428 (e.g., providing device warranties or service to relatedequipment), or utility companies 430. These entities can use the data toform programs to reduce energy usage, to preemptively service faultyequipment, to prepare for high service demands, to track past serviceperformance, etc., or to perform any of a variety of beneficialfunctions or tasks now known or hereinafter developed.

FIG. 5 illustrates an abstracted functional view of the extensibledevices and services platform of FIG. 4, with particular reference tothe processing engine 406 as well as the devices of the smart home. Eventhough the devices situated in the smart home will have an endlessvariety of different individual capabilities and limitations, they canall be thought of as sharing common characteristics in that each of themis a data consumer 502 (DC), a data source 504 (DS), a services consumer506 (SC), and a services source 508 (SS). Advantageously, in addition toproviding the essential control information needed for the devices toachieve their local and immediate objectives, the extensible devices andservices platform can also be configured to harness the large amount ofdata that is flowing out of these devices. In addition to enhancing oroptimizing the actual operation of the devices themselves with respectto their immediate functions, the extensible devices and servicesplatform can also be directed to “repurposing” that data in a variety ofautomated, extensible, flexible, and/or scalable ways to achieve avariety of useful objectives. These objectives may be predefined oradaptively identified based on, e.g., usage patterns, device efficiency,and/or user input (e.g., requesting specific functionality).

For example, FIG. 5 shows processing engine 406 as including a number ofparadigms 510. Processing engine 406 can include a managed servicesparadigm 510 a that monitors and manages primary or secondary devicefunctions. The device functions can include ensuring proper operation ofa device given user inputs, estimating that (e.g., and responding to) anintruder is or is attempting to be in a dwelling, detecting a failure ofequipment coupled to the device (e.g., a light bulb having burned out),implementing or otherwise responding to energy demand response events,or alerting a user of a current or predicted future event orcharacteristic. Processing engine 406 can further include anadvertising/communication paradigm 510 b that estimates characteristics(e.g., demographic information), desires and/or products of interest ofa user based on device usage. Services, promotions, products or upgradescan then be offered or automatically provided to the user. Processingengine 406 can further include a social paradigm 510 c that usesinformation from a social network, provides information to a socialnetwork (for example, based on device usage), and/or processes dataassociated with user and/or device interactions with the social networkplatform. For example, a user's status as reported to their trustedcontacts on the social network could be updated to indicate when theyare home based on light detection, security system inactivation ordevice usage detectors. As another example, a user may be able to sharedevice-usage statistics with other users. Processing engine 406 caninclude a challenges/rules/compliance/rewards paradigm 510 d thatinforms a user of challenges, rules, compliance regulations and/orrewards and/or that uses operation data to determine whether a challengehas been met, a rule or regulation has been complied with and/or areward has been earned. The challenges, rules or regulations can relateto efforts to conserve energy, to live safely (e.g., reducing exposureto toxins or carcinogens), to conserve money and/or equipment life, toimprove health, etc.

Processing engine 406 can integrate or otherwise utilize extrinsicinformation 516 from extrinsic sources to improve the functioning of oneor more processing paradigms. Extrinsic information 516 can be used tointerpret operational data received from a device, to determine acharacteristic of the environment near the device (e.g., outside astructure that the device is enclosed in), to determine services orproducts available to the user, to identify a social network orsocial-network information, to determine contact information of entities(e.g., public-service entities such as an emergency-response team, thepolice or a hospital) near the device, etc., to identify statistical orenvironmental conditions, trends or other information associated with ahome or neighborhood, and so forth.

An extraordinary range and variety of benefits can be brought about by,and fit within the scope of, the described extensible devices andservices platform, ranging from the ordinary to the profound. Thus, inone “ordinary” example, each bedroom of the smart home can be providedwith a smoke/fire/CO alarm that includes an occupancy sensor, whereinthe occupancy sensor is also capable of inferring (e.g., by virtue ofmotion detection, facial recognition, audible sound patterns, etc.)whether the occupant is asleep or awake. If a serious fire event issensed, the remote security/monitoring service or fire department isadvised of how many occupants there are in each bedroom, and whetherthose occupants are still asleep (or immobile) or whether they haveproperly evacuated the bedroom. While this is, of course, a veryadvantageous capability accommodated by the described extensible devicesand services platform, there can be substantially more “profound”examples that can truly illustrate the potential of a larger“intelligence” that can be made available. By way of perhaps a more“profound” example, the same data bedroom occupancy data that is beingused for fire safety can also be “repurposed” by the processing engine406 in the context of a social paradigm of neighborhood childdevelopment and education. Thus, for example, the same bedroom occupancyand motion data discussed in the “ordinary” example can be collected andmade available for processing (properly anonymized) in which the sleeppatterns of schoolchildren in a particular ZIP code can be identifiedand tracked. Localized variations in the sleeping patterns of theschoolchildren may be identified and correlated, for example, todifferent nutrition programs in local schools.

FIG. 6 is a block diagram of a special-purpose computer system 600according to an embodiment. For example, one or more of a utilityprovider computing system 120, energy management system 130, elements ofsmart home environment 200, remote server 264, client device 300,processing engine 406, data processing server 407, or other electroniccomponents described herein may be implemented as a special-purposecomputer system 600. The methods and processes described herein maysimilarly be implemented by computer-program products that direct acomputer system to perform the actions of the methods and processesdescribed herein. Each such computer-program product may comprise setsof instructions (codes) embodied on a computer-readable medium thatdirects the processor of a computer system to perform correspondingactions. The instructions may be configured to run in sequential order,or in parallel (such as under different processing threads), or in acombination thereof.

Special-purpose computer system 600 comprises a computer 602, a monitor604 coupled to computer 602, one or more additional user output devices606 (optional) coupled to computer 602, one or more user input devices608 (e.g., keyboard, mouse, track ball, touch screen) coupled tocomputer 602, an optional communications interface 610 coupled tocomputer 602, and a computer-program product 612 stored in a tangiblecomputer-readable memory in computer 602. Computer-program product 612directs system 600 to perform the methods and processes describedherein. Computer 602 may include one or more processors 614 thatcommunicate with a number of peripheral devices via a bus subsystem 616.These peripheral devices may include user output device(s) 606, userinput device(s) 608, communications interface 610, and a storagesubsystem, such as random access memory (RAM) 618 and non-volatilestorage drive 620 (e.g., disk drive, optical drive, solid state drive),which are forms of tangible computer-readable memory.

Computer-program product 612 may be stored in non-volatile storage drive620 or another computer-readable medium accessible to computer 602 andloaded into memory 618. Each processor 614 may comprise amicroprocessor, such as a microprocessor from Intel® or Advanced MicroDevices, Inc.®, or the like. To support computer-program product 612,the computer 602 runs an operating system that handles thecommunications of product 612 with the above-noted components, as wellas the communications between the above-noted components in support ofthe computer-program product 612. Exemplary operating systems includeWindows® or the like from Microsoft Corporation, Solaris® from SunMicrosystems, LINUX, UNIX, and the like.

User input devices 608 include all possible types of devices andmechanisms to input information to computer system 602. These mayinclude a keyboard, a keypad, a mouse, a scanner, a digital drawing pad,a touch screen incorporated into the display, audio input devices suchas voice recognition systems, microphones, and other types of inputdevices. In various embodiments, user input devices 608 are typicallyembodied as a computer mouse, a trackball, a track pad, a joystick,wireless remote, a drawing tablet, a voice command system. User inputdevices 608 typically allow a user to select objects, icons, text andthe like that appear on the monitor 604 via a command such as a click ofa button or the like. User output devices 606 include all possible typesof devices and mechanisms to output information from computer 602. Thesemay include a display (e.g., monitor 604), printers, non-visual displayssuch as audio output devices, etc.

Communications interface 610 provides an interface to othercommunication networks and devices and may serve as an interface toreceive data from and transmit data to other systems, WANs and/or theInternet, via a wired or wireless communication network 622. Embodimentsof communications interface 610 typically include an Ethernet card, amodem (telephone, satellite, cable, ISDN), a (asynchronous) digitalsubscriber line (DSL) unit, a FireWire® interface, a USB® interface, awireless network adapter, and the like. For example, communicationsinterface 610 may be coupled to a computer network, to a FireWire® bus,or the like. In other embodiments, communications interface 610 may bephysically integrated on the motherboard of computer 602, and/or may bea software program, or the like.

RAM 618 and non-volatile storage drive 620 are examples of tangiblecomputer-readable media configured to store data such ascomputer-program product embodiments of the present invention, includingexecutable computer code, human-readable code, or the like. Other typesof tangible computer-readable media include floppy disks, removable harddisks, optical storage media such as CD-ROMs, DVDs, bar codes,semiconductor memories such as flash memories, read-only-memories(ROMs), battery-backed volatile memories, networked storage devices, andthe like. RAM 618 and non-volatile storage drive 620 may be configuredto store the basic programming and data constructs that provide thefunctionality of various embodiments of the present invention, asdescribed above.

Software instruction sets that provide the functionality of the presentinvention may be stored in RAM 618 and non-volatile storage drive 620.These instruction sets or code may be executed by the processor(s) 614.RAM 618 and non-volatile storage drive 620 may also provide a repositoryto store data and data structures used in accordance with the presentinvention. RAM 618 and non-volatile storage drive 620 may include anumber of memories including a main random access memory (RAM) to storeof instructions and data during program execution and a read-only memory(ROM) in which fixed instructions are stored. RAM 618 and non-volatilestorage drive 620 may include a file storage subsystem providingpersistent (non-volatile) storage of program and/or data files. RAM 618and non-volatile storage drive 620 may also include removable storagesystems, such as removable flash memory.

Bus subsystem 616 provides a mechanism to allow the various componentsand subsystems of computer 602 communicate with each other as intended.Although bus subsystem 616 is shown schematically as a single bus,alternative embodiments of the bus subsystem may utilize multiple bussesor communication paths within the computer 602.

For a firmware and/or software implementation, the methodologies may beimplemented with modules (e.g., procedures, functions, and so on) thatperform the functions described herein. Any machine-readable mediumtangibly embodying instructions may be used in implementing themethodologies described herein. For example, software codes may bestored in a memory. Memory may be implemented within the processor orexternal to the processor. As used herein the term “memory” refers toany type of long term, short term, volatile, nonvolatile, or otherstorage medium and is not to be limited to any particular type of memoryor number of memories, or type of media upon which memory is stored.

Moreover, as disclosed herein, the term “storage medium” may representone or more memories for storing data, including read only memory (ROM),random access memory (RAM), magnetic RAM, core memory, magnetic diskstorage mediums, optical storage mediums, flash memory devices and/orother machine readable mediums for storing information. The term“machine-readable medium” includes, but is not limited to portable orfixed storage devices, optical storage devices, wireless channels,and/or various other storage mediums capable of storing that contain orcarry instruction(s) and/or data.

FIG. 7 illustrates a process 700 for implementing and managing ademand-response program according to an embodiment. To facilitateunderstanding, the process 300 is described with reference to FIG. 1 andFIG. 2, although it should be understood that embodiments of the process700 are not limited to the exemplary systems and apparatus describedwith reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2.

In operation 702, energy consumers are enrolled in a demand-responseprogram that defines one or more demand-response events. The energyconsumers may be residents of or otherwise associated with the energyconsumption at one or more of energy consumer residences 150A-150N. Thedemand-response program is a program that attempts to reduce load on theelectrical grid supplying the energy consumer residences 150A-150Nduring certain critical times which are generally times when demand getsclose to or is expected to exceed supply. The DR program often allowsfor participation in the program by the energy consumers to bevoluntary, although in some embodiments participation may be mandatory.In exchange for participation, the energy consumers are often rewardedmonetary incentives, reward-based incentives, or other types ofincentives to garner increased participation, but in some embodimentsthe energy consumers may not be provided such incentives.

A DR program may run for set periods, such as for a certain number ofmonths, days, years, may be seasonal (e.g., implemented in seasons suchas summer when energy demand is expected to increase substantially), maybe perpetual, and/or may be executed over any suitable period of time.In its efforts to reduce energy consumption over specifically definedperiods, the DR program defines one or more DR events. A DR event is atime period over which energy reduction mechanisms are to be activelyengaged. The DR event is defined by a DR event profile which includesinformation identifying a DR event period which defines the time periodover which energy reduction mechanisms are to be actively engaged. Thetime period may be on the order of minutes, tens of minutes, hours, tensof hours, or other suitable time period for which energy shifting isdesired. In at least one embodiment, a DR event period may be on theorder of a few minutes and referred to as an ‘instantaneous DR event’,which is an event narrowly tailored to an expected peak in aggregateenergy demand. In such instances the peak in energy demand may beidentified a few minutes (or a few hours) prior to the expected peaktime, and in some embodiments the duration of the peak energy demand(i.e., the duration during which expected demand exceeds supply) maylast a few minutes.

The DR event may also include other information suitable for effectivelymanaging energy consumption over the DR event period. For example, theDR event may also include information identifying a DR event magnitudewhich defines a magnitude of the desired energy reduction (either on aper-consumer basis, a group basis, an aggregate basis, or other basis).For another example, the DR event may include information identifying ageographical scope of the DR event, where the geographical scope maydescribe a region that relates to one or more electrical grids fromwhich load shedding is desired. The region may be defined using anysuitable parameters such as state, county, zip code, address, or thelike, or may identify one or more particular electrical grids from whichsuch addresses of residences may subsequently be inferred. In someembodiments, the DR program may also identify costs per unit of energyover the course of the DR program, DR events, etc. In other embodiments,consumers may be grouped according to characteristics other thangeographical characteristics. For example, consumers may be groupedbased on similar (or different) characteristics regarding theirstructures (e.g., thermal retention), their affluency (e.g., absolutewealth, annual income, etc.), their tendency to participate in DR eventsand/or programs, the amount of energy shifting likely achieved by theirparticipation in a DR event and/or program, etc.

As further described herein, various aspects of the DR program may bemanaged and executed by the utility provider computing system 120 and/orthe energy management system 130 either separately or in combinationwith one another. Accordingly, the energy consumers may enroll in one ormore DR programs offered by one or more of the utility providerassociated with the utility provider computing system 120 and an energymanager associated with the energy management system 130. In oneparticular embodiment, the energy consumer enrolls with the energymanager of the energy management system 130 as further described withreference to FIG. 8 through FIG. 11C. In any event, as a result ofexecuting operation 702, one or more energy consumers will be enrolled aDR program.

In operation 704, the time and duration of a demand-response event aredetermined. As should be recognized, some or all aspects of the DRprogram may be defined by a utility provider associated with the utilityprovider computing system, an energy manager associated with energymanagement system 130, or other suitable entity. For example, in oneaspect of the DR program the utility provider computing system 120 maynotify the energy management system 130 of a particular period duringwhich the utility provider would like to reduce aggregate energyconsumption. The utility provider computing system 120 may also notifythe energy management system 130 of the energy reduction it desiresduring the period. The energy management system 130 may then determinethe time and duration of a demand-response event based on thesenotifications from the energy management system 130, and use suchinformation to subsequently generate a DR event. In other embodiments,however, the utility provider computing system 120 may determine thetime and duration of a demand-response event and communicate thatinformation to the energy management system 130. As mentioned, theduration of the DR event may be on the order of minutes (e.g., 5, 10,15, 30, 45, 60 minutes, less than 5 or greater than 60 minutes, or inany range therebetween), or on the order of hours (e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,more than 5, or in any range therebetween, etc.).

The energy management system 130 does not necessarily have to rely onthe utility provider to determine the time and duration of ademand-response event. In some embodiments, the energy management system130 may determine the time and duration of a demand-response event usinginformation acquired from sources other than the utility provider. Forexample, energy management system 130 may monitor one or more of theconditions of the electrical grid (e.g., power distribution network160), weather conditions (e.g., temperature, humidity, etc.) at theresidences 150A-150N, the cost of energy (e.g., the real-time cost of aunit of electricity at a residence 150A-150N), etc. to identify trendsindicative of a situation in which active energy management andconsumption reduction may be beneficial. The energy management system130 may then use one or more of these factors to define a time andduration of an upcoming demand-response event, where the time andduration may be fixed or variable depending on a continued monitoring ofthe aforementioned conditions.

In operation 706 one or more of the enrolled energy consumers isidentified for participation in the demand-response event. For example,one or more of the energy consumers associated with the residences150A-150N that enrolled in the DR program may be identified forparticipation in the demand-response event determined in operation 704.It should be recognized that not all energy consumers who enrolled inthe demand response program are equally situated to reduce energy demandfor a given DR event, and accordingly it may be desirable to invite someenrolled energy consumers to participate in a particular DR event overother enrolled energy consumers. For example, some energy consumerswithin the geographical scope of the DR event may be better situated ormore likely to provide increased energy reductions over the DR eventperiod as compared to other energy consumers. The differences in energyconsumption may result from any number of a variety of factors, such asvariations among thermal retention characteristics of the residences,HVAC capacities, outside temperatures, etc. Particular techniques forusing these and other factors to identify suitable candidates forparticipation in a particular DR event are further described herein, forexample with reference to FIGS. 12 and 13.

In operation 708 energy consumption of the energy consumers identifiedin operation 706 is managed during the demand-response event. Forexample, the energy consumed at each of the residences 150A-150N thatenrolled in the DR program and were identified for participation in a DRevent may be managed by the energy management system 130. In managingthe energy consumption of the identified energy consumers, the energymanagement system 130 may attempt to reduce the aggregate amount ofenergy consumed by the identified energy consumers over a certainperiod. For example, the energy management system 130 may attempt toreduce the aggregate amount of energy consumed by the DR event magnitudedefined by the DR event over the course of the DR event period. Toachieve a reduction in energy consumption, the energy management system130 may determine a ‘baseline’ energy consumption for each energyconsumer which defines an amount of energy the energy consumer wouldhave consumed during the course of the DR event but-for their activeparticipation in the DR program and the DR event. The energy managementsystem 130 then utilizes a number of factors to determine techniques forreducing the energy consumption of the consumer to an amount less thanthe baseline. Some particular techniques for managing the energyconsumption of identified energy consumers are further described withreference to FIG. 14 through FIG. 28.

In operation 710 a determination is made as to whether thedemand-response event is complete. For example, the energy managementsystem 130 may determine whether the end of the DR event period has beenreached. If so, then processing may continue to operation 712, otherwiseprocessing returns to operation 708.

It should be recognized that not all DR events complete at the end ofthe originally defined DR event period. Rather, DR events may end beforeor after the end of the originally defined DR event period. This may bedue to any one or more of a variety of reasons. For example, the desiredaggregate energy reduction may be achieved prior to the end of theoriginally defined DR event period, in which case the DR event may endearly. Conversely, the desired aggregate energy reduction may not beachieved until after the end of the originally defined DR event period,in which case the DR event may end late.

In one embodiment, the energy management system 130 and/or utilityprovider computing system 120 may monitor the load on the powerdistribution network to determine whether the aggregate load hasachieved a desired magnitude during the course of the DR event periodand at the end of the originally defined DR event period. If themonitoring indicates that the load is at an acceptable level, then theDR event may be completed early, whereas if the monitoring indicatesthat the load continues to persist at an unacceptable level, then the DRevent period may be extended.

Instead of or in addition to monitoring load, the actual amount ofenergy reduction achieved by way of the energy management in operation708 may be monitored, and the DR event may be deemed complete only oncethe amount of energy reduction actually achieved is substantially equalto or exceeds the desired amount of energy reduction. The monitoredenergy reduction may be the aggregate energy reduction achieved bymanaging the energy consumption of all of the identified energyconsumers, where such an aggregate energy reduction may, for example, becompared to the desired aggregate energy reduction (e.g., the DR eventmagnitude defined on an aggregate basis by the DR event). In such anembodiment, the DR event may be completed for all of the identifiedenergy consumers even if some of the energy consumers provide lessenergy reduction than expected as long as the energy consumers as awhole provide the desired amount of energy reduction. Additionally oralternatively, the DR event for a particular energy consumer may bedeemed complete once the amount of energy reduction actually achieved bythat energy consumer is substantially equal to or exceeds the amount ofenergy reduction expected of that energy consumer. The actual energyreduction achieved by the energy consumer may, for example, be comparedto the desired or otherwise expected energy reduction from the energyconsumer (e.g., the DR event magnitude defined on a per-customer basisby the DR event).

Once the DR event is complete, then processing performs to operation 712where one or more post-event processing operations may be performed. Forexample, energy management system 130 may determine actual amounts ofenergy reduction achieved on a per-customer and/or aggregate basis,determine the value of the energy reductions, determine types and/ormagnitudes of rewards to provide to each of the DR event participants,etc. Such information may be compiled, aggregated, and selectivelycommunicated to other entities such as the utility provider computingsystem 120 for further analysis and/or processing. In some embodiments,such information may be used for increasing the effectiveness ofmanaging energy during subsequent DR events or for DR events in other DRprograms.

In operation 714 it is determined whether the demand-response program iscomplete. As described, a demand-response program may prolong for anysuitable duration and include one or more demand response events. If theend of the DR program has not yet been reached, then processing returnsto operation 704 where the time and duration of a subsequent DR eventare determined. Otherwise, processing continues to operation 716 wherepost-program processing may be performed. Post-program processing 716may encompass a variety of information compilation, aggregation, orother processing suitable for determining the value, effectiveness, orother characteristics of the completed DR program. Such information maybe used for a variety of purposes, such as for increasing theeffectiveness of managing energy during subsequent DR or other DRprograms.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIG. 7 provide a particular process for implementing and managing ademand-response program according to an embodiment. The variousoperations described with reference to FIG. 7 may be implemented at andperformed by one or more of a variety of electronic devices orcomponents described herein. For example, they may be implemented at andperformed by the energy management system 130, one or more residences150A-150N, the utility provider computing system 120, etc. Othersequences of operations may also be performed according to alternativeembodiments. For example, alternative embodiments of the presentinvention may perform the operations outlined above in a differentorder. Moreover, the individual operations illustrated in FIG. 7 mayinclude multiple sub-operations that may be performed in varioussequences as appropriate to the individual operations. Furthermore,additional operations may be added or existing operations removeddepending on the particular applications. One of ordinary skill in theart would recognize and appreciate many variations, modifications, andalternatives.

FIG. 8 illustrates a process 800 for enrolling energy consumers in ademand-response program according to an embodiment. To facilitateunderstanding, the process 800 is described with reference to FIG. 1 andFIG. 2, although it should be understood that embodiments of the process800 are not limited to the exemplary systems and apparatus describedwith reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2. In one particular embodiment,process 800 represents a particular example of operation 702 describedwith reference to FIG. 7. However, in other embodiments the scope ofprocess 800 is not so limited.

As discussed with reference to operation 706 of FIG. 7, not all energyconsumers that are enrolled in a DR program may be best suited for aparticular DR event. Similarly, not all energy consumers may be suitablefor participation in a DR program at all. For example, some energyconsumers may be associated with residences that have thermal retentioncharacteristics so poor that attempts to manage their energy consumptionis largely ineffective. Some energy consumers on a grid may be known tonever participate in DR events although they enroll a DR program. Someenergy consumers may have illustrated undesirable past behavior, such astampering with or attempting to tamper with their electronic devices soas to obviate the energy shifting impact of a successful implementationof a DR event. In summary, there are numerous reasons to exclude energyconsumers from enrollment in a DR program. One particular method foridentifying energy consumers for enrollment, thus effectively excludingothers, is hereby described.

In operation 802 one or more energy consumers are identified forpossible enrollment in a demand-response program. For example, energymanagement system 130 may identify one or more energy consumersassociated with residences 150A-150N for enrollment in a DR program. Theinitially identified energy consumers may include all or only a subsetof the energy consumers associated with residences 150A-150N. Theinitial identification may be based on any one or more of a number ofdifferent factors, such as past behavior, whether the residence includesan HVAC, whether the residence has a structural thermal retentionexceeding some value, etc. Turning briefly to FIG. 12, FIG. 12 describesa number of factors that may be used to determine whether an energyconsumer qualifies to participate in a particular DR event. While thesubsequent discussion regarding these factors is specifically directedto qualification for participation in a particular DR event, it shouldbe recognized that some or all of these factors can similarly be used atthe initial stages of determining whether or not a particular energyconsumer is even suitable to be offered enrollment in the DR program asa whole. If these factors, either individually or in the aggregate,indicate that the energy user is likely to contribute to the DR programby reducing their energy consumption during DR events, then the energyconsumer may be identified for possible in enrollment in the DR program.Otherwise, the energy consumer may be excluded from enrollment and, as aresult, subsequent participation in DR events.

Once one or more energy consumers have been identified for possibleenrollment in the DR program, processing continues to operation 804where the aggregate energy shifting resulting from successfulimplementation of the DR program is estimated. For example, the energymanagement system 130 may estimate the aggregate energy shifting. Theaggregate energy shifting may be estimated on the presumption that thereis 100% acceptance of offers to enroll in the DR program and subsequentparticipation in all DR events. Alternatively, the aggregate energyshifting may be estimated based on expectations of enrollment and DRevent participation. For example, various data such as priorparticipation levels in the same or similar DR programs, participationlevels for prior DR events, the geographical location of the identifiedenergy consumers, the affluence of the energy consumers, one or more ofthe various factors described with reference to FIG. 12, etc. may beused to determine the likelihood of a particular energy consumer toaccept an offer to enroll in a particular DR program. Such informationmay similarly be used to determine a likely rate of participation in theDR events and likely level of participation in each DR event.

Once the likelihood of participation in the DR program and DR events isdetermined for each identified energy consumer, these may be used toassist in determining the energy shifting likely to result from theidentified energy consumer's participation in a DR program. Once theenergy shifting likely to result from each energy consumer'sparticipation in the DR program is determined, these individual amountsof energy shifting may then be aggregated to determine the total amountof energy shifting expected from the successful implementation of the DRprogram.

As mentioned, the likelihood of participation in the DR program and DRevents determined for each identified energy consumer may be used toassist in determining the energy shifting likely to result from theidentified energy consumer's participation in a DR program. For example,the probability of participating in a DR event may be multiplied by ametric indicative of the amount of energy likely to be shifted as aresult of participating in the DR event, and that result may bemultiplied by the probability of the identified energy consumerparticipating in the DR program to determine an estimated amount ofenergy shifting attributed to the identified energy consumer likely tooccur if an offer of enrollment is extended to the identified energyconsumer. In generating the metric indicative of the amount of energylikely to be shifted as a result of participating in the DR event, anumber of different factors may be taken into consideration, such as thelikely characteristics of the DR program, the likely characteristics ofeach DR event, the likely HVAC schedule of the energy consumer over theeach DR event period, the likely DR implementation profile for each DRevent, the structural ability of the energy consumer's residence toshift energy loads, etc. The use of such factors for estimating thesavings that an energy consumer may realize upon participation in andsuccessful completion of a DR program are further described withreference to FIG. 10. It should be recognized that these factors cansimilarly be used to determine the amount of energy likely to be shiftedas a result of a particular energy consumer participating in a DRprogram, as described with reference to operation 1012 in FIG. 10.

In operation 806, the estimated aggregate energy shifting determined inoperation 804 is compared to a desired amount of aggregate energyshifting for implementation of the DR program. For example, the energymanagement system 130 may compare the estimated shifting determined inoperation 804 with a desired amount of aggregate energy shifting. LikeDR events, each DR program may define magnitude of desired energyreduction that should result from successful implementation of the DRprogram. The desired energy reduction may, similar those defined for DRevents, may be on a per-consumer basis, a group basis, an aggregatebasis, or some other basis. By comparing the estimated aggregateshifting likely to result from implementation of the DR program with aselect subset of the energy consumers 150A-150N, it can be determinedwhether the DR program is being offered to too few energy consumers, toomany energy consumers, or just the right number of energy consumers.

If the comparison indicates that the estimated shifting is less than orgreater than the desired amount of energy shifting, then scope ofenrollment may be altered as described with reference to operation 808so that enrollment is offered to the optimal number of energy consumers.In operation 808 the number of identified energy consumers for possibleenrollment in the DR program is either increased or decreased. Forexample, if the comparison indicates that the estimated shifting is lessthan the desired amount of energy shifting, then the number ofidentified energy consumers may be increased. In contrast, if thecomparison indicates that the estimated shifting is greater than thedesired amount of energy shifting, then the number of identified energyconsumers may be decreased. In increasing or decreasing the number ofidentified energy consumers, the factors used for the identification asdescribed with reference to operation 802 may respectively be relaxed ortightened. Once the scope of identified energy consumers is altered,processing then returns to operation 804 whereby a new aggregate energyshifting is estimated resulting from successful implementation of the DRprogram by the revised group of identified energy consumers.

If, in contrast, the comparison of operation 806 indicates that theestimated shifting is approximately equal to that desired, thenprocessing may continue to operation 810. In operation 810 enrollmentrequests are communicated to the identified energy consumers. Forexample, energy management system 130 may communicate enrollmentrequests to one or more electronic devices of residences 150A-150Nassociated with the identified energy consumers, including one or moreof an intelligent, multi-sensing, network-connected thermostat 202 andan access device 266 associated with the identified energy consumers.One particular example of communicating such an enrollment request isdescribed with reference to FIG. 11A through 11C, which depict agraphical user interface of an intelligent, network-connected thermostatassociated with an identified energy consumer receiving and respondingto an enrollment request.

In operation 812, one or more metrics indicative of the amount of energylikely to be shifted as a result of the identified energy consumerparticipating in the DR program may also be communicated to theidentified energy consumer. For example, the number of kWh of energylikely to be shifted, the monetary value of the energy likely to beshifted, etc. can be communicated to the identified energy consumer toinform the identified energy consumer as to the value of theirparticipation. Such information may be communicated together with,before, or after communicating the enrollment request. In one particularembodiment, such information is communicated simultaneously with theenrollment request so as to enable the identified energy consumer tomake an informed decision when responding to the request. One particularprocess for generating such metrics is further described with referenceto FIG. 10.

In some embodiments, the quality of the estimated aggregate energyshifting may be increased by determining the actual number of identifiedenergy consumers who accept or reject enrollment offers and an increasedlikelihood as to their expected level of participation in each DR event.The following operations describe one particular embodiment forincreasing the quality of the estimated aggregate energy shifting.

In operation 814 information indicative of an acceptance or rejection ofthe enrollment request may be received from each identified energyconsumer. For example, such information may be received by the energymanagement system 130 from one or more electronic devices associatedwith the identified energy consumers for which enrollment requests werecommunicated to in operation 810, such as one or more of an intelligent,multi-sensing, network-connected thermostat 202 and an access device266. The information may be received from the same electronic devicewhich the enrollment requests was communicated to, or from a differentelectronic devices.

In operation 816 information indicative of the identified energyconsumers' amenability to demand response load shifting is received foreach identified energy consumer. In being amenable to demand responseload shifting, a consumer's preference may range from a ‘minimum’amenability (or participation) to a ‘maximum’ amenability (orparticipation). An indication of a ‘minimum’ participation indicatesthat the energy consumer prefers a minimum amount of load shifting toparticipate in the DR program or event. Conversely, a ‘maximum’participation indicates that the energy consumer prefers a maximumamount of load shifting that is capable under the DR program or event.The energy consumer may select the minimum, maximum, or anywhere in arange between a minimum and maximum participation, where a minimumparticipation will result in the least change to the energy consumer'senergy consumption habits but-for participation in the DR programwhereas the maximum participation will result in the maximum change tothe energy consumer's energy consumption habits but-for participation inthe DR program. In many situations, a minimum participation will resultin the least amount of discomfort resulting from participation in a DRevent whereas a maximum participation will result in the maximum amountof discomfort resulting from participation in a DR event. Like theinformation indicative of an acceptance or rejection of the enrollmentrequest, the information indicative of the identified energy consumers'amenability to demand response load shifting may be received by theenergy management system 130 from one or more electronic devicesassociated with the identified energy consumers for which enrollmentrequests were communicated to in operation 810, such as one or more ofan intelligent, multi-sensing, network-connected thermostat 202 and anaccess device 266.

In operation 818 the aggregate energy shifting estimate is revised basedon the information received in one or more of operations 814 and 816.For example, the energy management system 130 may review the estimategenerated in operation 804. The aggregate energy shifting estimate maythen be revised in one or more of a variety of ways. For example, wherethe received information indicates acceptance of the enrollment request,when using the probability of DR program participation to determine todetermine an estimated amount of energy shifting attributed to anidentified energy consumer, the probability can be set to 100%. Then,the information indicating the energy consumer's amenability to DR loadshifting can then be used to more accurately generate the DRimplementation profile discussed with reference to operation 1008 inFIG. 10. In cases where the received information indicates rejection ofthe enrollment request, the identified energy consumer can be removedentirely from the calculation in estimating the aggregate energyshifting.

In operation 820 the revised estimate of aggregate energy shifting isagain compared to the desired amount of shifting. If they are notapproximately equal, processing may return to operation 808 where thesubset of identified energy consumers is increased or decreased aspreviously described. Otherwise, enrollment may conclude where theenergy consumers who accepted the enrollment requests are determined tobe enrolled in the program. In some embodiments, the enrollment‘request’ may not be a request at all, but rather a notification thatthe recipient will be subject to participation a demand responseprogram. In such cases, reception of an acceptance/rejection isunnecessary, and a more accurate estimate can initially be generated inoperation 804 in contrast to the embodiments where the enrollment is arequest for participation.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIG. 8 provide a particular process for enrolling energy consumers in ademand-response program according to an embodiment. The variousoperations described with reference to FIG. 8 may be implemented at andperformed by one or more of a variety of electronic devices orcomponents described herein. For example, they may be implemented at andperformed by the energy management system 130, one or more residences150A-150N, the utility provider computing system 120, etc. Othersequences of operations may also be performed according to alternativeembodiments. For example, alternative embodiments of the presentinvention may perform the operations outlined above in a differentorder. Moreover, the individual operations illustrated in FIG. 8 mayinclude multiple sub-operations that may be performed in varioussequences as appropriate to the individual operations. Furthermore,additional operations may be added or existing operations removeddepending on the particular applications. For example, as described,operations 812 through 820 may be optional. One of ordinary skill in theart would recognize and appreciate many variations, modifications, andalternatives.

FIG. 9 illustrates a process 900 for facilitating enrollment of anenergy consumer in a demand-response program via an electronic deviceassociated with the energy consumer according to an embodiment. Tofacilitate understanding, the process 900 is described with reference toFIG. 1 and FIG. 2, although it should be understood that embodiments ofthe process 900 are not limited to the exemplary systems and apparatusdescribed with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2.

As discussed with reference to FIG. 8, enrollment requests andinformation indicating an energy consumer's amenability to demandresponse load shifting may be communicated to identifier energyconsumers. Each identified energy consumer may be associated with one ormore electronic devices, such as intelligent, multi-sensing,network-connected thermostat 202, access device 266, etc. The requestsfor information may be communicated to one or more of these devices andthus one or more of these devices may be used to process and respond tothe requests as described herein.

In operation 902, an offer to enroll in a DR program is received. Forexample, the offer may be received at an electronic device associatedwith the identified energy consumer, such as intelligent, multi-sensing,network-connected thermostat 202, access device 266, or other device,from remote server 264 via network 262. The offer to enroll may includea variety of information regarding the DR program, such as the duration,magnitude, expectations, terms, etc. of the DR program, expected numberof DR events, and/or expected duration, magnitude, expectations, terms,etc. of the DR events. The details of the information may becommunicated together with the offer, or may be provided to theidentified energy consumer via a separate communication mechanism.

In operation 904, the received offer is communicated to the energyconsumer. The offer may be communicated using one or more of a varietyof techniques. For example, the offer may be displayed to the user,communicated to the user via audio, etc. Further, the offer may bereceived using one or more of a variety of techniques, e.g., via email,a message on or communicated by the thermostat, a telephone call, etc.In one embodiment, the offer may be displayed on one or more ofthermostat 202 and access device 266.

In operation 906 it is determined whether the energy consumer acceptsthe offer. The energy consumer may indicate acceptance or rejection ofthe offer using one or more of a variety of techniques. For example, theenergy consumer may engage an input interface of one of the thermostat202 and access device 266 to provide their response, where the inputinterface may be, as previously described, a touchscreen, a rotatablering, a voice input, or other input mechanism.

If the energy consumer rejects the offer, processing may continue tooperation 908 where information indicative of the rejection iscommunicated. The rejection is typically communicated to the entity thatcommunicated the enrollment request to the energy consumer; however, insome embodiments the rejection may be communicated to one or more otherrecipients. In one particular embodiment, information indicative of therejection is communicated from the thermostat 202 or access device 266to the energy management system 130 via network 262.

Alternatively, if the energy consumer accepts the offer, processing maycontinue to operation 910 where information indicative of the acceptanceis communicated. The acceptance is typically communicated to the entitythat communicated the enrollment request to the energy consumer;however, in some embodiments the acceptance may be communicated to oneor more other recipients. In one particular embodiment, informationindicative of the acceptance is communicated from the thermostat 202 oraccess device 266 to the energy management system 130 via network 262.

Processing may then continue to operation 912 where the energyconsumer's amenability to DR load shifting is requested. The request maybe communicated to the energy consumer using one or more of a variety oftechniques. For example, the request may be displayed to the user,communicated to the user via audio, etc. In one embodiment, the requestmay be displayed on one or more of thermostat 202 and access device 266.

In operation 914 it is determined whether a response to the request isreceived. The energy consumer provide a response indicating theiramenability to DR load shifting using one or more of a variety oftechniques. For example, the energy consumer may engage an inputinterface of one of the thermostat 202 and access device 266 to providetheir response, where the input interface may be, as previouslydescribed, a touchscreen, a rotatable ring, a voice input, or otherinput mechanism.

If a response is received, processing may continue to operation 916where the received information indicating the energy consumer'samenability to DR load shifting is communicated. The informationindicating the energy consumer's amenability to DR load shifting istypically communicated to the entity that communicated the enrollmentrequest to the energy consumer; however, in some embodiments theinformation indicating the energy consumer's amenability to DR loadshifting may be communicated to one or more other recipients. In oneparticular embodiment, information indicating the energy consumer'samenability to DR load shifting is communicated from the thermostat 202or access device 266 to the energy management system 130 via network262.

In contrast, if a response is not received, processing may continue tooperation 918 where ‘no-response’ processing is performed. No-responseprocessing may encompass one or more of a variety of processes that maybe performed in the absence of receiving a response to an initialrequest for the energy consumer's amenability to DR load shifting. Inone embodiment, if no response is received, processing may return tooperation 912 where the energy consumer is again requested for suchinformation. This may be performed any number of times until a responseis received. In another embodiment, if no response is received,processing may continue to operation 916, where ‘default’ amenability toDR load shifting may be communicated. The default value may rangeanywhere from minimum to maximum amenability to load shifting, and insome embodiments may be displayed to the energy consumer prior tocommunicating such information to the energy management system 130. Inother embodiments, no-response processing may include communicatinginformation indicating a lack of a response to the request for loadshifting amenability, in which case the energy management system 130 mayuse a default value or wait until a specific DR event to again requestthe energy consumer's amenability to load shifting.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIG. 9 provide a particular process for facilitating enrollment of anenergy consumer in a demand-response program via an electronic deviceassociated with the energy consumer. The various operations describedwith reference to FIG. 9 may be implemented at and performed by one ormore of a variety of electronic devices or components described herein.For example, they may be implemented at and performed by a thermostat202, an access device 266, or other electronic device described inaccordance with the smart home environment 200. Other sequences ofoperations may also be performed according to alternative embodiments.For example, alternative embodiments of the present invention mayperform the operations outlined above in a different order. Moreover,the individual operations illustrated in FIG. 14 may include multiplesub-operations that may be performed in various sequences as appropriateto the individual operations. Furthermore, additional operations may beadded or existing operations removed depending on the particularapplications. One of ordinary skill in the art would recognize andappreciate many variations, modifications, and alternatives.

FIG. 10 illustrates a process 1000 for generating one or more metricsindicative of an amount of energy likely be shifted by an energyconsumer if the energy consumer enrolls and participates in ademand-response program according to an embodiment. To facilitateunderstanding, the process 1000 is described with reference to FIG. 1and FIG. 2, although it should be understood that embodiments of theprocess 1000 are not limited to the exemplary systems and apparatusdescribed with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2.

As discussed with reference to operation 812 of FIG. 8, one or moremetrics indicative of an amount of energy likely be shifted by an energyconsumer if the energy consumer enrolls and participates in a DR programmay be generated for and communicated to each identified energyconsumer. In one particular embodiment as described herein, such metricsmay be generated using various information such as the characteristicsof the DR program, the likely HVAC schedule of the identified energyconsumer, the likely DR implementation profile for the identified energyconsumer, and the structural ability of the energy consumer's residenceto load shift.

Turning now to FIG. 10, in operation 1002 the characteristics of the DRprogram are determined. As previously described, the DR program may bedefined prior to requesting energy consumers to enroll in the program,where the DR program may define the expected number of DR events, theexpected magnitude of each DR event, etc. Accordingly, suchcharacteristic information may be received by the utility providercomputing system 120, generated by the energy management system 130, orreceived or generated in part or in whole by other suitable entity. Insome cases, a DR program communicated from the utility providercomputing system 120 may neglect to include various details such as thenumber of DR events, period of each DR event, magnitude of each DRevent, etc. The energy management system 130 can estimate the value ofsuch details. For example, the energy management system 130 may identifyvarious factors, such as the history of weather patterns for aparticular region, the expected weather (i.e., weather forecast), thehistory of DR events for a DR program having particular attributes, etc.to generate such an estimate.

In operation 1004, the expected HVAC schedule of the energy consumerover each DR event period is determined. In determining the expectedHVAC schedule of a particular energy consumer over a particular DR eventperiod, a number of different factors may be taken into consideration.These may include, for example, any current scheduled setpoints for theDR event period, the occupancy probability profile as applicable to theDR event period, a history of the energy consumer's scheduled and/orimmediate setpoints, etc. In some embodiments, the energy consumer'shistorical setpoints may be correlated with historical weather patternsto determine setpoints for different weather tendencies, which may thenbe extrapolated to likely setpoints for future weather patterns expectedfor the future DR events. Information from other energy consumers mayalso be used. For example, historical setpoints of similarly situatedenergy consumers (e.g., as correlated to various weather patterns) maybe used. Similarly situated energy consumers may be other energyconsumers in the same geographical region as the identified energyconsumer, energy consumers being associated with structures having thesame thermal retention characteristics and/or HVAC capacity as theidentified energy consumer, etc.

Once the expected HVAC schedule is determined, processing may continueto operation 1006 where the likely DR implementation profile for each DRevent is determined. The likely DR implementation profile indicates thesetpoints likely to be implemented for the energy consumer during a DRevent instead of their scheduled setpoints. In determining the likely DRimplementation profile for each event, a number of factors may be takeninto consideration. These factors may include, for example, the likelyHVAC schedule determined in operation 1004, the expected occupancyprobability profile, the thermal retention characteristic of thestructure associated with the energy consumer, the HVAC capacity of thestructure associated with the energy consumer, the expected DR eventprofile, any indication as to the energy consumer's amenability to loadshifting, past DR event behavior, weather forecast, etc. Some particularmethods for generating a DR implementation profile is described withreference to FIG. 16 through FIG. 22. While the methods described withreference to FIG. 16 through FIG. 22 are described in the context ofgenerating a DR implementation profile during a DR program andimmediately prior to a DR event, such a process may similarly be used togenerate an expected DR implementation profile for one or more future DRevents. In the case of generating the expected DR implementationprofile, however, as mentioned, some factors may be expected valuerather than actual values.

In operation 1008 the ability of the structure associated with theenergy consumer to load shift, for example one of residences 150A-150N,is determined. The ability of a structure to load shift indicates theability of the structure to reduce energy consumption during one period(most commonly in favor of increasing energy consumption during otherperiods) while maintaining substantially constant internal temperature.The ability of a structure to load shift may be calculated based on anumber of factors, such as the capacity of an environmental managementsystem of the structure relative to a volume of the structure to beenvironmentally managed. The environmental management system may be,e.g., an HVAC system, a cooling system, a heating system, a humidifier,etc. The ability to load shift may also or alternatively be based on theenvironmental retention characteristics of the structure. Environmentalretention characteristics refer to a structure's ability to retain heat,retain cold, retain humidity, retain dryness, etc. Different structureshave different abilities to retain heat, humidity, and the like,depending on a variety of characteristics of the structure, such as thematerials used to the construct the structure, the number, size, andtypes of windows used in the structure, cavities in the structure fordevices such as fireplaces, ventilation units, etc. Various techniquesfor determining the environmental retention characteristics of astructure may be used. Some particular techniques are described incommonly assigned U.S. patent application Ser. No. 12/881,463, filedSep. 14, 2010 (client reference number NES0003) and U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 13/632,152 (client reference number NES0259), filedSep. 30, 2012, both of which are incorporated herein in their entiretyfor all purposes. For one preferred embodiment, the step 1008 is carriedout automatically based exclusively on historical sensor readings of,and control commands carried out by, the intelligent, network-connectedthermostat for that residence. This automatic processing can be carriedout exclusively at the thermostat itself, or as facilitated by thecentral server(s) of the cloud-based service provider(s) for thethermostat using data uploaded thereto by the thermostat. For such anembodiment, there is a distinct advantage in that the homeowner is notrequired to perform any background data entry, hire any outsideconsultants to perform a thermal analysis of the home, place any specialsensing equipment in any special location, etc. Rather, simply by virtueof buying and installing the intelligent, network-connected thermostat,there has been an intelligent pre-qualification of that customer'spremises for predicted demand-response suitability and efficacy.However, the scope of the present teachings is not so limited, and inother preferred embodiments there can be data used that is input by thehomeowner, by an external sensing/logging system, or data obtained fromother sources to carry out the step 1008. For some embodiments, if it isdetermined that the premises is highly unsuitable for demand responseefficacy, there is provided the possible scenario, as may be actualizedaccording to the desires of that particular demand-response program,that the homeowner not be bothered at all with the demand-responseparticipation offer. It should be recognized that while thermalretention is described in numerous places herein, embodiments are not solimited. Rather, other types of environmental retention may beconsidered and/or used depending on the particular environmentalconditions at the structure and type of energy management beingperformed during a DR event.

In operation 1010, for each likely DR event identified by the DRprogram, the amount of energy likely to be shifted from the DR eventperiod to another time period is calculated. Such a calculation may usesome or all of the aforementioned factors, such as the likely HVACschedule, the likely DR implementation profile, and the ability of thestructure to load shift. In one particular embodiment, a ‘baseline’energy consumption for the DR event may first be determined using theexpected HVAC schedule for the DR event, the structure's ability to loadshift, the forecasted weather, and the occupancy probability profile. Insome embodiments, the baseline energy consumption for the DR event maybe predicted using a home thermal model that is created based on anumber of factors such as the structure's ability to load shift, theforecasted weather, the occupancy probability profile, the indoortemperature history, the outdoor temperature history, and the history ofHVAC usage. The likely energy consumption as a result of participatingin the DR event may then be determined using the DR implementationprofile and the structures ability to load shift. The difference ofthese values may then be taken as the amount of energy likely to beshifted from the DR event period to another time period.

In operation 1012, for each DR event, the likely value per unit ofenergy over the DR event period may be determined. The likely value perunit may be, for example, an expected cost per unit of energy. In thecontext of electrical energy, this may be a cost per kWh or othersuitable unit. The expected cost per unit of energy may be determinedusing one or more of a variety of sources, such as contracted energycosts (i.e., a cost of energy as defined by the DR program), historicalenergy costs (i.e., energy costs from prior similar DR events, energycosts during prior similar weather patterns as expected for the DRevent, etc.

In operation 1014, for each DR event, the value of energy likely to beshifted from the DR event period to another time period is determined.This value of energy may be determined by multiplying the likely valueper unit of energy determined in operation 1012 with the amount ofenergy likely to be shifted calculated in operation 1010.

In one particular embodiment, the value of energy likely to be shiftedrepresents only the energy reduction that is likely to occur during theDR event period as a result of energy management and control by one ormore elements of the system (e.g., implementation of a DR implementationprofile by a thermostat). In other embodiments, however, the value ofenergy likely to be shifted may also incorporate increased energyconsumption outside of the DR event period. That is, in energy shiftingenergy is shifted from a high cost period (i.e., the DR event period) toa low cost period (i.e., periods shouldering the DR event period). Whilethe reduction in energy during the high cost period (and associatedvalue thereof) provides a good estimate of the value of energy savings,a more accurate estimate may be obtained if the increased energyconsumption during the low cost periods is also taken intoconsideration. This may be done by, e.g., in operation 1012 determiningthe likely value per unit of energy not only over the DR event period,but also during the time periods (e.g., shoulder periods) over which theenergy is likely to be shifted. Then, in operation 1014, the value ofthe energy shifted to time periods outside the DR event period may bededucted from the value of the energy shifted from the actual DR eventperiod.

In operation 1016, the values of energy calculated for each DR event aresummed. This summed value is the likely value for the energy consumer toparticulate in the DR program.

In operation 1018, one or more metrics indicative of the amount ofenergy likely to be shifted as a result of enrolling and participatingin the DR program are communicated to the energy consumer. The metricsmay include the amount of energy likely to be shifted as described withreference to operation 1010 (i.e., amount of likely energy shift on aper-event basis) or a sum of these amounts for all expected DR events(i.e., a total amount of likely energy shift resulting from enrollingand participating in the DR program). The metrics may also oralternatively include the value of energy likely to be shifted on aper-event basis (e.g., as described with respect to operation 1014) oron an all-event basis (e.g., as described with reference to operation1016). In one particular embodiment, energy management system 130 maycommunicate the one or more metrics to one or more electronic devices ofresidences 150A-150N associated with the identified energy consumer,including one or more of an intelligent, multi-sensing,network-connected thermostat 202 and an access device 266 associatedwith the identified energy consumer.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIG. 10 provide a particular process for generating one or more metricsindicative of an amount of energy likely be shifted by an energyconsumer if the energy consumer enrolls and participates in ademand-response program according to an embodiment. The variousoperations described with reference to FIG. 10 may be implemented at andperformed by one or more of a variety of electronic devices orcomponents described herein. For example, they may be implemented at andperformed by the energy management system 130, one or more residences150A-150N, the utility provider computing system 120, etc. Othersequences of operations may also be performed according to alternativeembodiments. For example, alternative embodiments of the presentinvention may perform the operations outlined above in a differentorder. Moreover, the individual operations illustrated in FIG. 10 mayinclude multiple sub-operations that may be performed in varioussequences as appropriate to the individual operations. Furthermore,additional operations may be added or existing operations removeddepending on the particular applications. For example, where only energyestimates (i.e., no value estimates) are needed, operations 1012 to 1016may be omitted. One of ordinary skill in the art would recognize andappreciate many variations, modifications, and alternatives.

FIGS. 11A through 11C illustrate a simplified graphical user interfacefor presenting an offer to enroll in a demand response program to anenergy consumer. While the graphical user interface (GUI) is presentedin the form of an interface that may be displayed on a circular-shapeddevice such as the device 300 discussed with reference to FIGS. 3Athrough 3C, embodiments are not so limited as similar GUI's could bepresented on other devices of other shapes.

Turning to the figures, FIG. 11A illustrates an input/output (I/O)element 1100 which may be, e.g., user interface 304 (FIG. 3A), outputdevice 606 and/or input device 608 (FIG. 6), or other suitable I/Oelement 1100 of an electronic device associated with an identifiedenergy consumer which is offered enrollment in a DR program. The I/Oelement 1100 includes a request message 1102 displaying the offer ofenrollment to the identified energy consumer. The I/O element 1100 alsoincludes a selectable input mechanism 1104 whereby the user can eitheraccept or reject the offer. In one specific example, ring 320 could berotated and/or depressed to either accept or reject the offer.

FIG. 11B illustrates the I/O element 1100 in the event the user acceptsthe offer of enrollment. The I/O element 1100 includes a participationlevel request message 1110 displaying a request for the identifiedenergy consumer to select their desired level of participation in the DRprogram. This may range from a minimum level of participation to amaximum level of participation in the program. The I/O element 1100 mayinclude a controllable slider 1112 that enables the identified energyconsumer to select any level of participation on a gradient ranging fromminimum to maximum participation. In one specific example, ring 320could be rotated and/or depressed to select the level of participation.The I/O element 1100 may also include an estimated savings 1114 theidentified energy consumer may realize if they enroll in the program andparticipate at the level of participation indicated by the slider 1112.The estimated savings in this particular example is illustrated as adollar savings, but in other examples may also or alternatively beillustrated as a magnitude of energy savings (e.g., kWh). The estimatedsavings may also be recalculated and re-displayed in real-time inresponse to the energy consumer changing their level of participation.Further, in some embodiments, the estimated savings may also oralternatively be displayed together with the request message 1102displaying the offer of enrollment. In such a case, the estimatedsavings may be calculated based on a default or expected level ofparticipation.

FIG. 11C illustrates the I/O element 1100 in the event the identifiedenergy consumer accepts the offer of enrollment and, in someembodiments, in the event the identified energy consumer selects theirdesired level of participation. The I/O element 1100 includes a thankyou message 1120 thanking the identified energy consumer for enrollingin the program and an instruction message 1122 indicating that theidentified energy consumer will subsequently be notified of upcoming DRevents.

It should be appreciated that the specific I/O elements illustrated inFIGS. 11A through 11C describe particular I/O elements according tocertain embodiments. The I/O elements described with reference to FIGS.11A through 11C may be implemented at and performed by one or more of avariety of electronic devices associated with the identified energyconsumer. For example, they may be implemented at and performed by oneor more of the a thermostat 202, hazard detection unit 204, entrywayinterface device 206, wall light switch 208, wall plug interface 210,appliance 212, access device 266, or other electronic device associatedwith the identified energy consumer. The various messages and inputelements may not necessarily be displayed at different times, but rathersome messages could be presented simultaneously on the same display.Some messages could be communicated using other communicationmechanisms, and responses could similarly be received using othercommunication mechanisms. For example, audible, touch, or otherinput/output mechanisms could be used. Further, it should be recognizedthat additional or alternative information could be presented to requestenrollment and a participation level, and all of the informationillustrated in FIGS. 11A through 11C need not be presented. One ofordinary skill in the art would recognize and appreciate manyvariations, modifications, and alternatives.

Returning briefly to FIG. 7, as described with reference to operation706, after enrollment, one or more of the enrolled energy consumers isidentified for participation in a particular DR event. As mentioned, notall energy consumers who enrolled in the demand response program areequally situated to reduce energy demand for a given DR event, andaccordingly it may be desirable to invite some enrolled energy consumersto participate in a particular DR event over other enrolled energyconsumers. A number of different factors may be taken into considerationfor determining whether or not a particular enrolled energy consumer issuitable (i.e., qualified) for participation in a particular DR event.One particular set of factors is described with reference to FIG. 12.

Specifically, FIG. 12 illustrates process 1200 for analyzing a number offactors to determine whether an enrolled energy consumer is qualifiedfor participation in a particular DR event according to an embodiment.Some of the factors may be determinative on their own, while otherfactors may be weighed to present an overall qualification level. Thequalification level may range anywhere from not qualified (e.g., 0) tovery qualified (e.g., 100). Whether a particular energy consumer isidentified for participation in a DR event may thus depend on whethertheir qualification level meets a required qualification level. Tofacilitate further understanding, the process 1200 is described withreference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2, although it should be understood thatembodiments of the process 1200 are not limited to the exemplary systemsand apparatus described with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2.

Turning to FIG. 12, in operation 1202 it is determined whether theenergy consumer has displayed a history of positive behavior. Positivebehavior may be, e.g., productive (i.e., energy saving) contributions topast DR programs or DR events; positive encouragement for others toparticipate in past DR programs or DR events; timely payment of utilityor other bills; etc. In contrast, negative behavior may be, e.g.,non-productive contributions to past DR programs, negative encouragementfor others to participate in past DR programs, untimely payment ofutility or other bills, tampering of one or more electronic devicesindicative of an attempt to obviate past DR programming, etc. When thereis a history of positive behavior, such a history weighs in favor ofqualification. In contrast, when there is a history of negativebehavior, such a history weighs against qualification.

In operation 1204, it is determined whether the structure associatedwith the energy consumer is likely to be occupied during the DR event.In determining whether the structure is likely to be occupied during theDR event, an occupancy probability profile may be generated or otherwiseacquired. The occupancy probability profile indicates a probability thatthe structure will be occupied at various times. The occupancyprobability profile may be generated using one or more occupancy sensorsincorporated in one or more electronic devices associated with thestructure, such as in a thermostat 202, hazard detection unit 204,entryway interface device 206, wall light switch 208, wall pluginterface 210, appliance 212, access device 266, or other electronicdevice associated with the identified energy consumer. A historicalrecord of the occupancy detected by one or more of these devices may bemaintained and used to develop the probability profile. In oneparticular embodiment, a technique for developing an occupancyprobability profile as described in commonly assigned U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 13/632,070 (client reference number NES0234), whichis incorporated by reference in its entirety for all purposes, may beused. When the occupancy probability profile indicates that thestructure is likely to be unoccupied, such a likelihood weighs in favorof qualification. In contrast, when the occupancy probability profileindicates that the structure is unlikely to be occupied, such alikelihood weighs against qualification.

In operation 1206 it is determined whether an environmental managementsystem (e.g., an HVAC system, cooling system, heating system, etc.) isinstalled, operable, and controllable at the structure. For example,device 300 may detect installation of a particular type of environmentalmanagement system via connections to wire connectors 338. One particulartechnique for detecting installation of a particular type ofenvironmental management system is disclosed in commonly assigned U.S.patent application Ser. No. 13/038,191 (client reference numberNES0009), filed Mar. 1, 2011, which is incorporated by reference in itsentirety for all purposes. Further, device 300 may similarly be used todetermine whether the attached environmental management system isoperable and controllable by, e.g., the device 300. For example, device300 may attempt to control an attached cooling system to cool thestructure. If temperature sensors of the device 300 subsequently measurea reduction in inside temperature that is not likely a result of factorssuch as declining outside temperature, the device 300 may deduce thatthe attached cooling system is operable and controllable. Othertechniques for determining whether an attached environmental managementsystem is operable and controllable are disclosed in U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 13/038,191, supra, ______, which is incorporated byreference for all purposes. If it is determined that an environmentalmanagement system is installed, operable, and controllable, then thismay weigh in favor of qualification. In contrast, if it is determinedthat an environmental management system is not installed, operable, orcontrollable, then this way weigh against qualification.

In operation 1208 it is determined whether the capacity of theenvironmental management system relative to the volume of the structureto be environmentally managed exceeds a threshold. For example, it maybe determined whether the cooling capacity of a cooling system relativeto the volume of the structure to be cooled by the cooling systemexceeds a threshold. When the capacity of the environmental managementsystem is too small, in some instances the environmental managementsystem may not assist in any DR event energy reduction. Accordingly,when the capacity of the environmental management system does not meetor exceed the threshold, this may weigh against qualification. Incontrast, when the capacity exceeds the threshold, this may weigh infavor of qualification.

In operation 1210 it is determined whether an environmental retentioncharacteristic of the structure exceeds a threshold. As mentioned,environmental retention characteristics refer to a structures ability toretain heat, retain cold, retain humidity, retain dryness, etc., anddifferent structures have different abilities to retain heat, humidity,and the like. When the environmental retention characteristic is so lowfor the type of DR event being managed, there may be little or no energyshifting. For example, where there is a very hot outside temperature andthe thermal retention of a structure is very low, the energy consumerassociated with the structure may be a poor choice for participation ina DR even as pre-cooling (described in detail further herein) may becomelargely ineffective. Accordingly, when the environmental retentioncharacteristic is equal to or below a threshold value, this weighsagainst qualification. In contrast, when the environmental retentioncharacteristic exceeds the threshold value, this weighs in favor ofqualification.

In operation 1212 it is determined whether the amount of energy shiftinglikely to occur as a result of the identified energy consumerparticipating in the particular DR event exceeds a threshold value. Eventhough a particular energy consumer has enrolled in a DR program and, insome embodiments, determined to likely provide at least some amount ofenergy shifting as a result of their participation in the DR program,that same energy consumer may not be well-suited to provide energyshifting for a particular DR event. This may be due to any one of anumber of reasons, such as the person likely being home for the entireduration of the DR event (and unlikely to be home for most other DRevents), the weather at the energy consumer's structure likely to besignificantly different (less energy demanding) than the weather atother identified energy consumer's structures (but more similar duringother DR events), etc. Moreover, although a number of energy consumersare enrolled to participate in a DR program, there may be instanceswhere it is desirable to use only a select subset of those consumers fora particular DR event as further described with reference to FIG. 13.

Regardless of the case, at operation 1212 it is determined whether theamount of energy shifting likely to occur as a result of the identifiedenergy consumer participating in the particular DR event exceeds athreshold value. The amount of energy shifting likely to occur may bedetermined using a number of factors such as the energy consumer's HVACschedule, the DR implementation profile, and the ability of thestructure to load shift. In one particular embodiment, a ‘baseline’energy shifting for the DR event may first be determined using the HVACschedule for the DR event, the structures ability to load shift, theweather forecast, and occupancy probability profile. The likely energyshifting to occur as a result of participating in the DR event may thenbe determined using the DR implementation profile and the structuresability to load shift. The difference of these values may then be takenas the amount of energy likely to be shifted from the DR event period toanother time period. One particular process for determining the amountof energy likely to be shifted is discussed with reference to operation2310 of FIG. 23 in the context of estimating savings and is equallyapplicable here. Accordingly, when the amount of energy shifting likelyto occur as a result of the identified energy consumer participating inthe particular DR event exceeds a threshold value, this weighs in favorof qualification. In contrast, when the amount of energy shifting likelyto occur as a result of the identified energy consumer participating inthe particular DR event is equal to or less than the threshold value,this weighs against qualification.

In operation 1214 it is determined whether the device controlling theenvironmental management system (e.g., an HVAC) at the structure haswireless communication capabilities. For example, it may be determinedwhether device 300 is capable of communicating wirelessly with remoteserver 264 and/or energy management system 130. If so, this may weigh infavor of qualification; otherwise, this may weigh against qualification.

In operation 1216 it is determined whether one or more devicesassociated with the structure of the identified energy consumer hasaccess to weather forecast information. For example, it may bedetermined whether device 300 is operable to receive a weather forecastfor the weather in the vicinity of the structure. In other embodiments,the devices associated with the structure need not have access toweather forecast information, but rather such information may beacquired by other entities such as energy management system 130. If,however, it is determined that one or more devices associated with thestructure of the identified energy consumer has access to weatherforecast information, then his may weigh in favor of qualification;otherwise, this may weigh against qualification.

In operation 1218 it is determined whether the device (e.g., device 300)controlling the environmental management system (e.g., an HVAC) at thestructure is in a particular learning mode, e.g., an ‘aggressive’learning mode. For example, an intelligent, multi-sensing,network-connected thermostat 202 may implement one or more learningalgorithms whereby the thermostat 202 learns the tendencies andpreferences of the occupants of the structure associated with thethermostat 202. The thermostat 202 may learn preferred temperatures,humidity's, etc. for different times of the day, for differentoccupants, etc. The thermostat 202 may implement multiple modes oflearning, wherein an initial learning mode aggressively responds to userselections. That is, the learning mode provides significant weight totemperature settings and changes instigated by the occupants. Theinitial learning mode may last for a certain duration, for example aweek, two weeks, three weeks, etc., or until a certain amount oftemperature settings and adjustments have been recorded.

At the end of the initial learning mode, the substantive preferences andtendencies of the occupants should be recognized. The thermostat 202 maythen enter a second learning mode such as a refining mode of learning.The refining mode may be much less aggressive compared to the initiallearning mode, in that changes made by occupants are given much lessweight in comparison to changes made during the initial learning mode.Various specific learning algorithms are further described in commonlyassigned U.S. Provisional Application No. 61/550,346 (client referencenumber NES0162-PROV), filed Oct. 21, 2011, the contents of which areincorporated by reference herein in their entirety for all purposes.

It should be recognized that embodiments are not necessarily limited tothe thermostat 202 learning tendencies and preferences of the occupantsof the structure, but rather the learning algorithms may be incorporatedin any one or more of the electronic devices described with reference tothe smart home environment 200 and/or the energy management system 130.In any event, when such devices are still in an aggressive learning modethey may not be suitable for participation in a DR event, and thus thismay weigh against qualification. In contrast, when such devices are outof the aggressive learning mode, this may weigh in favor ofqualification.

In operation 1220 it is determined whether the device controlling theenvironmental management system (e.g., an HVAC) at the structure ispaired with a user account. By being paired with a user account, thedevice is uniquely associated with a user account managed by the energymanagement system 130. In many cases, the device is paired with anaccount created by the energy consumer associated with the structure.The account may be managed by the energy management system 130 andprovide the energy consumer access to control and monitoring of thedevice (e.g., thermostat 202) using one or more remote electronic device(e.g., access device 266). Various techniques for pairing a device to auser account are further described in commonly assigned U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 13/275,311 (client reference number NES0129), filedOct. 17, 2011, the contents of which are incorporated by referenceherein in their entirety for all purposes. If the device controlling theenvironmental management system at the structure is paired with a useraccount, this may weigh in favor of qualification. In contrast, if thedevice controlling the environmental management system at the structureis not paired with a user account, this may weigh against qualification.

In operation 1222 it is determined whether the identified energyconsumer is likely to participate in the DR event. The likelihood of theenergy consumer participating in the DR event may be determined based ona number of factors, such as the prior participation levels by theenergy consumer in past DR events, the HVAC schedule of the energyconsumer, the likelihood of the structure being occupied during the DRevent, the geographical location of the energy consumer, the affluenceof the energy consumer, etc. If the energy consumer is likely toparticipate in the DR event, then this may favor qualification.Otherwise, this may weigh against qualification.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIG. 12 provide a particular process for analyzing a number of factorsto determine whether an enrolled energy consumer is qualified forparticipation in a particular DR event. The various operations describedwith reference to FIG. 12 may be implemented at and performed by one ormore of a variety of electronic devices or components described herein.For example, they may be implemented at and performed by one or moreelectronic devices in the smart home environment 200, the energymanagement system 130, etc. Other sequences of operations may also beperformed according to alternative embodiments. For example, alternativeembodiments of the present invention may perform the operations outlinedabove in a different order. Moreover, the individual operationsillustrated in FIG. 12 may include multiple sub-operations that may beperformed in various sequences as appropriate to the individualoperations. Furthermore, additional operations may be added or existingoperations removed depending on the particular applications. One ofordinary skill in the art would recognize and appreciate manyvariations, modifications, and alternatives.

FIG. 13 illustrates a process 1300 for identifying energy enrolledenergy consumers to participate in a DR event according to anembodiment. Any particular DR event may have the goal of reducing energyconsumption by a certain amount during the DR event period (i.e.,shifting a certain amount of energy consumption from the DR event periodto one or more other time periods). The magnitude of this reduction orshifting may be defined, e.g., by the DR event magnitude. In someembodiments it may not be necessary to have all enrolled energyconsumers participate in a particular DR event to achieve the desiredshifting in energy consumption. Accordingly, a particular process fordetermining the minimum number of enrolled energy consumers necessary toachieve a particular amount of energy shifting is described herein. Tofacilitate further understanding, the process 1300 is described withreference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2, although it should be understood thatembodiments of the process 1300 are not limited to the exemplary systemsand apparatus described with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2.

In operation 1302, a subset of the enrolled energy consumers isqualified for participation in a DR event. A number of factors such asthose described with reference to FIG. 12 may be used to determine whichenergy consumers are qualified to participate in a particular DR event.Initially, the qualification factors may be applied stringently suchthat a fairly limited number of energy consumers are considered to bequalified.

Once the initial subset of enrolled energy consumers is qualified,processing continues to operation 1304. In operation 1304 an estimate ofthe aggregate energy shifting likely to result from participation of thequalified subset of energy consumers is determined. The estimated energyshifting likely to result from participation of each energy consumer mayinitially be determined as described with reference to operation 1212.These estimates may then be aggregated for all of the initiallyqualified energy consumers.

In operation 1306, the estimated aggregate energy shifting is thencompared with the desired energy shifting. For example, the estimatedaggregate energy shifting may be compared to a desired energy shiftingdefined by the DR event. If the estimated aggregate energy shifting isnot approximately equal to the desired energy shifting, then processingmay continue to operation 1308.

In operation 1308, the size of the qualified subset of enrolled energyconsumers for participation in the DR event is either increased ordecreased. If the estimated energy shifting is less than the desiredenergy shifting, then the size of the qualified subset is increased. Incontrast, if the estimated energy shifting is greater than the desiredenergy shifting, then the size of the qualified subset is decreased. Inone particular embodiment, the size of the qualified subset may bedecreased by making one or more of the factors used to the qualify thesubset more stringent. For example, with reference to FIG. 12, the HVACcapacity threshold may be increased, the structural thermal retentionthreshold may be increased, the amount of likely energy shifting may beincreased, etc. In contrast, the size of the qualified subset may beincreased by making one or more of the factors used to qualify thesubset less stringent. For example, with reference to FIG. 12, the HVACcapacity threshold may be decreased, the structural thermal retentionthreshold may be decreased, the amount of likely energy shifting may bedecreased, etc. Once the size of the qualified subset is changed,processing may return to operation 1304 where an aggregate energyshifting is again estimated but this time for the modified subset.

Returning to operation 1310, if the estimated aggregate energy shiftingis approximately equal to the desired energy shifting, then processingmay continue to operation 1310. In operation 1310 the energy consumersthat are included in the qualified subset are determined to be theidentified energy consumers for participation in the DR event. Forexample, with reference to operation 706, the energy consumers that areincluded in the qualified subset may be considered to be thoseidentified in operation 706.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIG. 13 provide a particular process for identifying energy enrolledenergy consumers to participate in a DR event. The various operationsdescribed with reference to FIG. 13 may be implemented at and performedby one or more of a variety of electronic devices or componentsdescribed herein. For example, they may be implemented at and performedby the energy management system 130, one or more residences 150A-150N,the utility provider computing system 120, etc. Other sequences ofoperations may also be performed according to alternative embodiments.For example, alternative embodiments of the present invention mayperform the operations outlined above in a different order. For example,in some embodiments, if the estimated shifting is greater than thedesired shifting, processing may continue to operation 1310 rather than1308. In such a case it may be recognized that greater shifting thandefined by a DR event profile may be desired. Moreover, the individualoperations illustrated in FIG. 13 may include multiple sub-operationsthat may be performed in various sequences as appropriate to theindividual operations. Furthermore, additional operations may be addedor existing operations removed depending on the particular applications.One of ordinary skill in the art would recognize and appreciate manyvariations, modifications, and alternatives.

Returning briefly to FIG. 7, once the specific enrolled energy consumersare identified for participation in a DR event as described withreference to operation 706, the energy consumption of those energyconsumers is then managed during a DR event. Managing energy consumptionfor an energy consumer may include a variety of aspects, such asnotifying the energy consumer of the DR event, intelligently reducingenergy consumption for the energy consumer, responding to changes in theDR event instigated by the utility provider or energy management system,responding to feedback of the energy consumer, and the like. Oneparticular process for managing energy consumption of the identifiedenergy consumers is herein described with reference to FIG. 14.

Specifically, FIG. 14 illustrates a process 1400 for managing the energyconsumption of energy consumers identified for participation in a DRevent according to an embodiment. To facilitate further understanding,the process 1400 is described with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2,although it should be understood that embodiments of the process 1400are not limited to the exemplary systems and apparatus described withreference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2.

In operation 1402 each identified energy consumer may be notified of anupcoming demand-response event. For example, energy management system130 may communicate such a notification to one or more electronicdevices of residences 150A-150N associated with the identified energyconsumers, including one or more of an intelligent, multi-sensing,network-connected thermostat 202 and an access device 266 associatedwith the identified energy consumers. The notification may becommunicated to each device associated with an energy consumer or, insome embodiments, may be communicated to only one or a subset of devicesassociated with the energy consumer. The notification may becommunicated at any suitable time period to the DR event period, such as1 hour before, 6 hours before, 12 hours before, 24 hours before, etc. Insome embodiment, the notification may be communicated on the order ofminutes prior to the DR event period, such as 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 30minutes, etc. Such may be the case for instantaneous DR where theutility company (or other entity) determines that a peak in aggregateenergy demand is likely within an hour (or other nearby time) and wouldlike to cause a reduction in aggregate energy demand in the near term.Multiple notifications may be communicated at the DR event periodapproaches. In many embodiments, the notification is communicated priorto any expected pre-event management period. In some cases, however,such as when the number of participants needs to be increased partwaythrough the DR event, a notification could be sent during the DR eventperiod. One particular example of communicating such a notification isdescribed with reference to FIG. 24A through 24C, which depict agraphical user interface of an intelligent, network-connected thermostatassociated with an identified energy consumer receiving and respondingto such a notification. The notification may include a variety ofinformation to the DR event, such as the DR event period, DR eventmagnitude, etc.

It should be recognized that the intelligent, network-connectedthermostat need not receive notification of a DR event at any certaintime prior to the DR event period beginning. In some embodiments, thethermostat may receive notification of the DR event prior to the DRevent period beginning. In other embodiments, however, the thermostatmay receive notification of the DR event period during the DR event. Insuch cases, the thermostat may still implement a DR implementationprofile. In at least one embodiment, additional processing may beperformed to determine whether a thermostat should implement a DRimplementation profile based on the time the notification is received.For example, the thermostat may implement a DR implementation profileonly if some shift in energy consumption is likely. That is, at the timeof receiving the notification, the thermostat (or remote server) maydetermine whether a shift in energy consumption is likely (e.g., usingthe processing described with reference to operation 1408), based on thetime remaining for the DR event, the DR implementation profileapplicable to the remaining DR event period, etc. If a shift in energyconsumption is not likely because, e.g., the thermostat received thenotification too late (e.g., partway through a pre-cooling period, orpartway through a set-back period), then the thermostat may not generateor implement a DR implementation profile. In contrast, if an energyshift is likely, the thermostat may implement the DR implementationprofile such that it participates in at least a portion of the DR event.It should further be recognized that, to participate in the DR event,the thermostat need not maintain a network connection after receivingthe DR event notification. That is, once the thermostat receives the DRevent notification, the network connection to the remote server may belost, but the thermostat may nevertheless implement a DR implementationprofile.

In operation 1404 information indicating the energy consumer'samenability to load shifting is received. This operation is similar tothat described with reference to operation 804. However, in this case,this information indicates the energy consumer's amenability to loadshifting with respect to a specific DR event, rather than the DR programas a whole. In many embodiments, this operation may be excluded in favorof operation 804 (where the amenability to load shifting indicated forthe DR program is subsequently used as the amenability to load shiftingfor some or all DR events in the program), or vice versa, operation 804may be excluded in favor of operation 1404 (where amenability to loadshifting is asked for each DR event, or for only the first DR event or asubset of DR events where the amenability may effectively be learnedover the course of the DR program). In some embodiments, the energyconsumer may be requested for their amenability to load shifting both atthe time of enrolling in the DR program and at the time of participatingin a DR event, where the information received for the specific DR eventmay take precedence over that received for the DR program as a whole. Inat least one embodiment, where the energy consumer initially indicated apreferred amenability for the DR program, that preference may beindicated as a default level of amenability for each particular DRevent, where the energy consumer has the option to tweak their desiredamenability at the time of each specific DR event.

In operation 1406, a DR event implementation profile is generated forthe energy consumer. The DR event implementation profile defines aplurality of setpoint temperatures distributed over the DR event periodof the DR event. These setpoint temperatures temporarily replace thescheduled setpoint temperatures that the energy consumer had in placeprior to the DR event. The setpoint temperatures are temporary in thatthey are applied and implemented only for the DR event period (and, insome cases, pre-event and/or post-event periods such as pre-cooling andsnapback periods). In cases where the energy consumer did not have anyscheduled setpoint temperatures during the DR event period, the setpointtemperatures defined by the DR event implementation profile may becreated as new (yet temporary) setpoint temperatures for the energyconsumer. One particular technique for generating a DR eventimplementation profile is described herein with reference to FIG. 16through FIG. 22, although other techniques for generating a DR eventimplementation profile may be implemented. In at least one embodiment,the information indicating the energy consumer's amenability to loadshifting as described in operation 1404 may be used to generate the DRevent implementation profile. An increased amenability will result in amore aggressive DR event implementation profile (i.e., one that moreaggressively shifts energy) whereas a decreased amenability will resultin a less aggressive DR event implementation profile.

In operation 1408, one or more metrics indicative of the amount ofenergy likely to be shifted as a result of the energy consumerparticipating in the DR event is calculated. This operation is similarto the process 1000 described with reference to FIG. 10, however in thiscase the accuracy of the metrics in indicating the amount of energy liketo be shifted may be increased as compared to those calculated inoperation 1018 due to the more concrete nature of the factors used togenerate the metrics. For example, in determining the metrics inaccordance with operation 1408, the HVAC schedule for the DR eventperiod is likely known and can be identified and the DR eventimplementation profile has been generated. These may be used incombination with the ability of the structure to load shift to calculatethe amount of energy likely to be shifted from the DR event period toanother event period. In some embodiments, the per unit value of energyover the DR event period may also be determined in order to calculatethe value of energy likely to be shifted. Accordingly, such metrics mayinclude one or more of a magnitude (e.g., kWh) of energy likely to beshifted, a value (e.g., dollars) of the energy likely to be shifted,etc. One particular technique for determining such metrics is describedwith reference to FIG. 23 and may be used herein.

In operation 1410 one or more of the metrics calculated in operation1408 are communicated to the energy consumer. In one particularembodiment, energy management system 130 may communicate the one or moremetrics to one or more electronic devices of residences 150A-150Nassociated with the identified energy consumer, including one or more ofan intelligent, multi-sensing, network-connected thermostat 202 and anaccess device 266 associated with the identified energy consumer.

In operation 1412 it is determined whether the energy consumer opts-outof participation in the DR event. The energy consumer may opt-out in oneor more of a variety of ways. For example, the energy consumer mayrespond to the notification described in operation 1402 with a responseindicating a desire to opt-out of participation in the DR event. Foranother example, the energy consumer may change their scheduledsetpoints for the DR event period that were set by the DR implementationprofile, and/or may change an immediate setpoint on their thermostat. Insome embodiments, any setpoint change may result in an opt-out, whereasin other embodiments, only scheduled setpoint changes that result in areduction of the amount of energy shifting expected by the energyconsumer result in an opt-out. In some cases, the reduction must begreat enough such that the energy consumer no longer shifts energy fromthe DR event period. It should be recognized that a variety oftechniques to opt-out may be incorporated, such as the energy consumeremailing, telephoning, messaging, or other communicating an opt-outrequest to the energy management system 130 either before or during theDR event. It should also be recognized, however, than in otherembodiments the energy consumer may not be given an opportunity opt-outof participating in a particular DR event. In such cases, for example,the processing may continue to operation 1416.

If the energy consumer opts-out, then processing may continue tooperation 1414 where the DR event is canceled for that energy consumer.In canceling the DR event, no DR implementation profile will becommunicated to the energy consumer, thus the energy consumer'sscheduled setpoints will remain as originally configured by the energyconsumer. If a DR implementation profile had already been communicatedto the energy consumer, then any changes made to the energy consumerssetpoints by incorporation of the DR implementation profile may bereversed. If on the other hand the energy consumer does not opt-out,then processing may continue to operation 1416.

In operation 1416 the DR event implementation profile is sent to theenergy consumer. For example, energy management system 130 may send theDR event implementation profile to one or more electronic devices ofresidences 150A-150N associated with the identified energy consumers,including one or more of an intelligent, multi-sensing,network-connected thermostat 202 and an access device 266 associatedwith the identified energy consumers. As a result, the receiving device,such as thermostat 202, may temporarily replace any existing scheduledsetpoints with those indicated in the DR event implementation profile.

In operation 1418 the DR event begins. For example, the DR event perioddefined by the DR event may start.

In operation 1420 it is determined whether a change is basis for the DRevent implementation profile is received from the consumer. As describedwith reference to operation 1406 and FIG. 16 through FIG. 22, a numberof factors may be used to generate the DR event implementation profile,such as the HVAC schedule, an occupancy probability profile, anamenability to load shifting, a weather forecast, etc. One or more ofthese basis may change during the DR event. For example, the energyconsumer may adjust their immediate setpoint or scheduled setpoints onthe HVAC schedule for the DR event period. A real-time occupancy sensormay indicate an occupancy where the occupancy probability profileindicated a non-occupancy. A real-time outside weather (e.g.,temperature, humidity, etc.) measurement may be different than thatindicated in the weather forecast. If such a change in the basis isreceived or otherwise detected, then processing may continue tooperation 1422.

In operation 1422 it is determined whether the change in basis is fatalto the DR event for the energy consumer. The change in basis may befatal, e.g., if it results in less energy shifting than initiallypredicted. Alternatively, there may be more leniency, whereby the changein basis is fatal only if it results in no energy shifting at all forthe DR event. In one particular embodiment, to determine whether thechange is fatal, the amount of energy shifting likely to result fromcontinued participation in the DR event subject to the altered basis maybe recalculated. This recalculated energy shift may then be compared tothe energy shifting initially calculated in, e.g., operation 1408, ormay be compared to a threshold amount such as zero shifting. If thechange is not fatal, then processing may continue to operation 1424.

In operation 1424 the DR event implementation profile is modified inaccordance with the changed basis. The DR event implementation profileat this point may be generated similar to that described above withreference to operation 1406, but in this case the modified basis areused to generate the profile. Once the modified DR event implementationprofile is generated, processing may continue to operation 1416 wherethe modified profile is sent to the energy consumer. If, on the otherhand, it is determined in operation 1422 that the change is fatal, thenprocessing may return to operation 1414 where the DR event is canceledfor the energy consumer.

Returning to operation 1420, if it is determined no change in basis isreceived from the energy consumer, then processing may continue tooperation 1426. In operation 1426 it is determined whether a change inbasis for the DR event profile is received from the utility providercomputing system 120 or other entity of system 100, or is generated byenergy management system 130. As described with reference to operation702, a DR event is a time period over which energy reduction mechanismsare actively engaged in an effort to reduce energy consumption over aspecifically defined period. The efforts to reduce energy consumptionmay be in response to a determination that demand on the grid is likelyto exceed supply during the defined period. This may be due to a varietyof factors, such as expected temperature, humidity, temporary drops insupply (e.g., scheduled maintenance of electrical power generators),etc. During the course of the DR event one or more of these basis forgenerating the DR event may change. As a result, the necessity of the DRevent may also decrease. In another example, the actual amount ofaggregate energy reduction may exceed that expected, or an additionalsupply of energy may be incorporated, in which case the necessity of theDR event may also decrease. In some embodiments, the basis may changeprior to the DR event period beginning. Accordingly, a notification maybe sent to the energy consumer, energy management system, or the likeprior to the beginning of the DR event period effectively canceling theDR event. Regardless of the reason, if such a change in the DR eventprofile is received, processing may continue to operation 1422.

In operation 1422 during this instance, it is determined whether thechange in the DR event profile is fatal to the energy consumer. This maybe determined as previously discussed for operation 1422, except in thiscase likely energy shifting is recalculated based on the change in theDR event profile. In contrast, if there is no change in the DR eventprofile, then processing may continue to operation 1428 where the DRevent is finished.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIG. 14 provide a particular process for managing the energy consumptionof energy consumers identified for participation in a DR event. Thevarious operations described with reference to FIG. 14 may beimplemented at and performed by one or more of a variety of electronicdevices or components described herein. For example, they may beimplemented at and performed by the energy management system 130, one ormore residences 150A-150N, the utility provider computing system 120,etc. Other sequences of operations may also be performed according toalternative embodiments. For example, alternative embodiments of thepresent invention may perform the operations outlined above in adifferent order. For example, while operations 1420 through 1426 aredescribed as being performed during a DR event, they may similarly beperformed prior to a DR event beginning. That is, changes to the DRevent implementation profile and/or DR event profile may be received andprocessed prior to the DR event beginning. Moreover, the individualoperations illustrated in FIG. 14 may include multiple sub-operationsthat may be performed in various sequences as appropriate to theindividual operations. Furthermore, additional operations may be addedor existing operations removed depending on the particular applications.One of ordinary skill in the art would recognize and appreciate manyvariations, modifications, and alternatives.

In the process described with reference to FIG. 14, once the energyconsumers are identified for participation in the DR event, the size ofthis set of energy consumers may decrease (e.g., as a result of optingout) but may not increase. In some embodiments it may be desirable toincrease the number of energy consumers that are eligible to participatein a DR event during the course of the DR event. For example, in somecases the pre-event estimate for the aggregate amount of energy to beshifted by the identified energy consumers may be inaccurate, resultingin less energy shifting than is desired. Conversely, if the actualenergy shifting being achieved during the course of a DR event isgreater than that expected or needed, then the number of participants inthe event may be diminished. Accordingly, in some embodiments the numberof energy consumers participating in a particular DR event may increase,decrease, or the specific energy consumers may change, during the courseof the DR event. One particular technique for actively managing the DRevent based on the monitored aggregate energy shifting is described withreference to FIG. 15. Such techniques may, e.g., be implementedsimultaneously with operations 1420 through 1426 described withreference to FIG. 14.

Specifically, FIG. 15 illustrates a process 1500 for managing a DR eventbased on a monitored aggregate energy shifting in accordance with anembodiment. To facilitate further understanding, the process 1500 isdescribed with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2, although it should beunderstood that embodiments of the process 1500 are not limited to theexemplary systems and apparatus described with reference to FIG. 1 andFIG. 2.

In operation 1502, a DR event begins. This operation is similar tooperation 1418, thus further description is omitted.

In operation 1510, the actual aggregate energy shifting during thecourse of the DR event is monitored. For example, energy managementsystem 130 may determine the actual amount of energy shifting caused byeach of the energy consumers participating in the DR event, andaggregate this data to determine the aggregate energy shifting. Theactual amount of energy shifting may be determined using a variety oftechniques. For example, a current (real-time) amount of energyconsumption may be determined. This may be calculated using a number offactors such an HVAC status (on, off, % of capacity being used, etc.), astatus of other electronic devices associated with the structure, etc.Additionally or alternatively, this may be determined from a meter thatmonitors energy consumption such as energy consumption meter 218. Ahistory of the actual amount of energy being consumed may be kept atleast for the duration of the DR event so that an aggregate amount ofactual energy consumed over the course of the DR event may bedetermined. Further, the ‘baseline’ energy consumption for the consumermay be determined as described with reference to operation 708, exceptin this case the baseline energy consumption is determined only for theportion of the event period that has passed, instead of for the entireevent period. The difference between the aggregate actual amount ofenergy consumed up to a given time and the aggregate amount of energydefined in the baseline results in an indication as to the actualaggregate energy that has been shifted at any particular time during theDR event.

As the aggregate energy shift is being monitored, processing maycontinue to operation 1506 where it is determined whether the DR eventhas finished. If so, then processing may continue to operation 1508where the DR event is ended. Otherwise, processing may continue tooperation 1510.

In operation 1510 it is determined whether the actual real-timeaggregate amount of energy shifting is approximately equal to thatexpected. For example, the amount determined in operation 1504 may becompared with the energy shifting expected by this particular time inthe DR event. The expected energy shifting may be calculated usingtechniques similar to those that will be described with reference tooperation 2310. However, in contrast to the expected energy shiftingcalculated in operation 2310, which is for the entire DR event period,the expected energy shifting in this case is only for the portion of theevent period that has passed. If it is determined that the actualaggregate energy shifting at a given point in time during the DR eventis approximately equal to that expected, then processing may return tooperation 1504. If, however, it is determined that the actual aggregateenergy shifting at the given point in time is not approximately equal tothat expected, then this is indicative of the energy consumer eithershifting too much or not enough energy, and thus processing may continueto operation 1512.

In operation 1512 one or more techniques may be implemented to respondto the difference in actual and estimated aggregate shifting for aparticular energy consumer. In one embodiment, the number of consumersidentified to participate in the DR event may be altered. For example,if the actual aggregate shifting is less than that expected, then thenumber of energy consumers identified to participate in the DR event maybe increased. In such a case, an identification process as describedwith reference to operation 706 may be carried out, one or more newenergy consumers identified, and event notifications immediately sent tothose energy consumers. If, on the other hand, the actual aggregateshifting is greater than that expected, then in one embodiment thenumber of energy consumers identified to participate in the DR event maybe decreased. For example, the DR event may be canceled for the energyconsumer being monitored. Additionally or alternatively, the DR eventmay be canceled for other energy consumers participating in the DRevent.

In another embodiment, instead of (or in addition to) increasing ordecreasing the number of energy consumers participating in the DR event,the DR implementation profiles associated with one or more energyconsumers may be modified. For example, if the actual aggregate shiftingis less than that expected, then the DR implementation profiles for oneor more energy consumers participating in the DR event (including orexcluding the energy consumer being monitored) may be modified to moreaggressively shift energy. If, on the other hand, the actual aggregateshifting is greater than that expected, then the DR implementationprofiles for one or more energy consumers participating in the DR event(including or excluding the energy consumer being monitored) may bemodified to shift energy less aggressively.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIG. 15 provide a particular process for managing a DR event based on amonitored aggregate energy shifting in accordance with an embodiment.The various operations described with reference to FIG. 15 may beimplemented at and performed by one or more of a variety of electronicdevices or components described herein. For example, they may beimplemented at and performed by the energy management system 130, one ormore residences 150A-150N, the utility provider computing system 120,etc. Other sequences of operations may also be performed according toalternative embodiments. For example, alternative embodiments of thepresent invention may perform the operations outlined above in adifferent order. Moreover, the individual operations illustrated in FIG.15 may include multiple sub-operations that may be performed in varioussequences as appropriate to the individual operations. Furthermore,additional operations may be added or existing operations removeddepending on the particular applications. One of ordinary skill in theart would recognize and appreciate many variations, modifications, andalternatives.

As described with reference to operation 1406, a DR event implementationprofile may be generated for each energy consumer identified toparticipate in a DR event. The DR event implementation profile defines aplurality of setpoint temperatures distributed over the DR event periodof the DR event. A process for generating such a DR event implementationprofile according to some embodiments is further described withreference to FIG. 16.

Specifically, FIG. 16 illustrates a process 1600 for generating ademand-response event implementation profile in accordance with anembodiment. To facilitate further understanding, the process 1600 isdescribed with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2, although it should beunderstood that embodiments of the process 1600 are not limited to theexemplary systems and apparatus described with reference to FIG. 1 andFIG. 2.

In operation 1602 one or more basis for creating the DR eventimplementation profile are identified. The basis used may be equallyweighted, unequally weighted, or used for generating different aspectsof the DR event implementation profile as further described herein. Thebasis may include one or more of the following: the HVAC schedule of theenergy consumer (e.g., one or more scheduled setpoints set by the energyconsumer, including those set over the course of the DR event period);an occupancy probability profile for the structure associated with theenergy consumer; an environmental (e.g., thermal) retentioncharacteristic of the structure; a capacity of the environmentalmanagement system (e.g., HVAC) relative to the volume of the structurebeing environmentally managed; a real-time occupancy of the structure; aDR event profile; an amenability of the energy consumer to loadshifting; past behavior of the energy consumer during DR events (e.g.,changing the setpoints defined by previous DR implementation profilesfor previous DR events); and a weather forecast (e.g., the forecastweather at the structure associated with the energy consumer).

Once one or more of these basis have been identified, processing maycontinue to operation 1604. In operation 1604 it is determined whetherpre-event energy management is appropriate. To gain a furtherappreciation for pre-event energy management and the DR eventimplementation profile in general, we turn briefly to FIGS. 17A and 17B.

FIG. 17A is an illustration 1700 of a DR event and related periodsaccording to an embodiment. As depicted in the illustration 1700, a DRevent period 1702 extends from 2 pm to 7 pm. This DR event period may,e.g., be defined by a utility provider in a DR event profile, and aspreviously described is a period of desired energy reduction.Shouldering the DR event period 1702 is a pre-event period 1704 (e.g., apre-cooling period) and a post-event period 1706 (e.g., a snapbackperiod). The pre-cooling period 1704 is illustrated as extending from 1pm to 2 pm and the post-event period is illustrated as extending from 7pm to 8 pm. However it should be recognized that pre-cooling periods, DRevent periods, and snapback periods may have time frames different thanthose depicted in FIG. 17A, and may be dyanamically calculated per userso that each user has a unique DR implementation profile that iscustomized to their particular structure, occupancy probability profile,weather forecast, amenability to load shifting, etc.

The pre-event period 1704 in this example is referred to as apre-cooling period. In situations where a DR event is implemented torespond to hot weather conditions, the pre-event period 1704 is referredto as a pre-cooling period as this is a period during which a structuremay be aggressively cooled in preparing for the DR event period. Inother situations, however, this may be referred to as a pre-heatingperiod, or pre-humidifying period, pre-dehumidifying period, dependingon the goals of the DR event. Most of the examples described herein arein the context of a DR event being disseminated to respond to hotweather conditions, however it should be recognized that embodiments arenot so limited.

The snapback period 1706 is a period during which energy consumption maysubstantially increase (i.e., spike) as a result of one or more energyconsumers offsetting energy reductions instigated during the DR eventperiod. For example, by the end of the DR event period, many energyconsumers may experience inside temperatures higher than desirable as aresult of their energy consumption being managed. Once the DR eventperiod completes, however, they may increase their energy consumption(to reduce their inside temperature to something more comfortable)without penalty, and thus they may increase their energy consumptionsignificantly. In the aggregate, this may result in a new peak in energydemand and, in some cases, pressures on the grid similar to thoseexpected during the DR event period.

FIG. 17B is an illustration 1750 of an energy consumers originallyscheduled setpoints as well as DR event-modified setpoints (resultingfrom application of the DR event implementation profile) overlaying thetime periods described with reference to FIG. 17A according to anembodiment. Specifically, illustration 1750 shows a set of originallyscheduled setpoints 1752 and DR event-modified setpoints 1754. Theoriginally scheduled setpoints 1752 indicate a desired temperatureconsistently at or around 74° F. The DR event-modified setpoints 1754illustrate a change to those originally scheduled setpoints 1752 that,in some examples, reduces energy consumption by the energy consumerduring the DR event period.

The DR event-modified setpoints 1754 show setpoints identical to theoriginal setpoints up until 1 pm and after 7:30 pm. Between 1 pm and 2pm, however, i.e., during the pre-cooling period, the DR event-modifiedsetpoints 1754 are set to 71° F. rather than 74° F. In this case, thestructure is cooled to an amount less than that originally desired bythe energy consumer. From 2 pm to 7:20 pm, however, the DRevent-modified setpoints 1754 are set to 76° F. rather than 74° F. Inthis case, the structure is allowed to heat to an amount greater thanthat originally desired by the energy consumer. At about 7:20 pm, the DRevent-modified setpoints 154 are reduced to 75° F. for about 20 minutesand then returned to 74° F.

As a result of increasing the allowing the internal temperature to riseto 76° F. rather than maintain it at 74° F. for the duration of the DRevent, the amount of energy consumed at the structure is likely reducedover the duration of the DR event. Further, by staggering the return to76° F., a spike in energy consumption at or around 7 pm (the end of theDR event period) may also be reduced. However, it should be recognizedthat energy consumption on a whole is not necessarily reduced. That is,in contrast to the originally scheduled setpoints, the DR event-modifiedsetpoints result in additional energy consumption during the pre-coolingperiod. As a result, even though energy consumption during the DR eventperiod 1702 is reduced, this energy consumption is actually shifted toone or more time periods outside of the DR event period (e.g., to thepre-cooling period and/or the snapback period 1706).

Returning now to FIG. 16, in operation 1604 it is determined whetherpre-event energy management is appropriate. For example, it may bedetermined whether it is appropriate to perform any energy management(such a pre-cooling or pre-heating) during the pre-event period 1704. Itmay be appropriate to perform such energy management if it is determinedthat such energy management will result in a reduction of energy duringthe DR event period. One particular example of a process that may beused to determine whether it is appropriate to apply pre-cooling isdescribed with reference to FIG. 19. If it is determined that it is notappropriate to perform such energy management, then processing maycontinue to operation 1608. If, however, it is determined that suchenergy management is appropriate, then processing may continue tooperation 1606.

In operation 1606 the magnitude and duration of the pre-event energymanagement is determined. As mentioned, pre-event energy management mayinclude pre-cooling, pre-heating, pre-humidifying, pre-dehumidifying, orother type of energy management. The magnitude of the pre-event energymanagement (e.g., +2° F., +4° F., etc.) may be determined as well as theduration (e.g., 30 minutes, 60 minutes, 90 minutes, etc.). The magnitudeand duration may be determined using one or more of the basis previouslydescribed for generating the DR implementation profile.

In operation 1608 it is determined whether DR event interval energymanagement is appropriate. For example, it may be determined whether itis appropriate to perform any energy management (such as setpointchanges, duty cycling, etc.) during the DR event period 1702. It may beappropriate to perform such energy management if it is determined thatsuch energy management will result in a reduction of energy during theDR event period. In determining whether it is appropriate to perform anyDR event interval energy management, a number of different DR eventenergy reduction mechanisms may be considered. These include a setpointchange mechanism, a duty cycling mechanism, or a combination of thesetpoint change and duty cycling mechanisms, as described herein. Togain a further appreciation for the various types of DR event intervalenergy management, we turn briefly to FIGS. 18A through 18C.

FIG. 18A is an illustration 1800 depicting a setpoint change type of DRevent interval energy reduction mechanism according to an embodiment.Illustration 1800 depicts the originally scheduled setpoints 1752 and DRevent-modified setpoints 1754 over the pre-event period, DR eventperiod, and post-event period as previously described with reference toFIGS. 17A and 17B. Further, an internal temperature 1802 of thestructure associated with the energy consumer, and HVAC ON periods 1804that are periods during which a cooling system is actively attempting tocool the structure, are also depicted. In this particular example, theDR event interval energy reduction mechanism is a ‘setpoint change’mechanism, in which the cooling system is activated and deactivatedduring the DR event period as necessary to maintain the internaltemperature 1802 as close to the setpoints (e.g., DR event-modifiedsetpoints 1754) as possible (e.g., within a range of ±1° F., ±2° F.,etc.).

Specifically, the HVAC is in an ON state 1804A during the pre-coolingperiod to reduce the internal temperature 1802 prior to the DR eventperiod. During the DR event period, the HVAC enters into and stays in anON state 1804B for various durations and at various times in an attemptto maintain the internal temperature 1802 at the DR event-modifiedsetpoints 1754. During the post-event period the HVAC is in an ON state1804C as necessary to maintain the internal temperature 1802 at the DRevent-modified setpoints 1754, where the temperature of the DRevent-modified setpoints 1754 is reduced in stages to eventually reachthe originally scheduled setpoints 1752 and the reductions are offsetfrom the end of the DR event period.

FIG. 18B is an illustration 1820 depicting a duty cycling change type ofDR event interval energy reduction mechanism according to an embodiment.Illustration 1820 is similar to that described with reference to FIG.18A, but in this case illustrates HVAC ON states 1824A, 1824B, and1824C. HVAC ON states 1824A and 1824C are the same as 1804A and 1804C,thus further description is omitted. HVAC ON state 1824B, however,illustrates a ‘duty cycling’ DR event interval energy reductionmechanism, in which the cooling system is activated for fixed durationsover regular intervals. In this particular case, the cooling system isactivated for 15 minute durations every 1 hour for the duration of theDR event interval regardless of the magnitude of the internaltemperature 1822. It should be recognized that in some embodimentsdirect load control (i.e., actively controlling the duty cycle of anHVAC) may be controlled by setting setpoint temperatures very high(i.e., higher than typical inside temperatures), to turn the HVAC ON, orvery low (i.e., lower than typical inside temperatures), to turn theHVAC OFF. Such setpoint temperatures may or may not be displayed to theuser.

FIG. 18C is an illustration 1840 depicting a combination setpoint/dutycycling change type of DR event interval energy reduction mechanismaccording to an embodiment. Illustration 1840 is similar to thatdescribed with reference to FIG. 18A, but in this case illustrates HVACON states 1844A, 1844B, and 1844C. HVAC ON states 1844A and 1844C arethe same as 1804A and 1804C, thus further description is omitted. HVACON state 1844B, however, illustrates a combination of the aforementionedsetpoint and duty cycling type DR event interval energy reductionmechanisms. In this particular combination the cooling system isactivated at regular time intervals for minimum durations. For example,the cooling system is activated every hour for at least 10 minutes. Ifthe minimum activation interval (e.g., 10 minutes) is sufficient toreduce the internal temperature 1842 to the temperature defined by theDR event-modified setpoints 1754, then the cooling system willdeactivate after the minimum activation interval. If, however, theminimum activation interval (e.g., 10 minutes) is insufficient to reducethe internal temperature 1842 to the temperature defined by the DRevent-modified setpoints 1754, then the cooling system may extend itsactivation interval past the minimum activation interval (e.g., it mayextend to 15 or 20 minutes). In some embodiments the cooling system mayextend its activation interval until the internal temperature 1842 isreduced to the temperature defined by the DR event-modified setpoints1754. In other embodiments, the length of the extension may be limitedin duration to prevent the cooling system from being constantlyactivated. In this particular example, the first, third, and fourthcooling system activations are for the minimum activation interval,whereas the second activation is extended.

It should be recognized that embodiments are not limited to the variousexamples illustrated in and described with reference to FIGS. 18Athrough 18C. Rather, one skilled in the art would recognize numerousvariations in setpoint temperatures, setpoint intervals, setpoint times,DR event period times and intervals, energy management system (e.g.,cooling system) activation times and periods, etc. These examples arepresented to articulate different types of DR event interval energyreduction mechanisms as further described herein and, while presented inthe context of reducing internal temperatures, are similarly applicableto varying other types of environmental conditions within the structure.

Returning to operation 1608 of FIG. 16, it is determined whether DRevent interval energy reduction is appropriate. As described, varioustypes of DR event interval energy reduction mechanisms include asetpoint change, duty cycling, or a combination of a setpoint change andduty cycling. Some specific processes that may be used to determinewhether any or all of these energy reduction mechanisms are appropriateare described with reference to FIGS. 20 and 21. If it is determinedthat it is not appropriate to perform such energy management, thenprocessing may continue to operation 1612. If, however, it is determinedthat such energy management is appropriate, then processing may continueto operation 1610.

In operation 1610 the magnitude and duration of the DR event intervalenergy management is determined. As mentioned, DR event interval energymanagement may include setpoint control, duty cycling control, or acombination of setpoint and duty cycling control. The magnitude for eachtype of energy control mechanism (e.g., difference in DR event-modifiedsetpoints and originally scheduled setpoints, duty cycling periods,maximum extensions to duty cycling periods, etc.) may be determinedusing one or more of the basis previously described for generating theDR implementation profile, while the duration of the energy reductionmechanism may be defined as the DR event period.

In operation 1612 it is determined whether post-event energy managementis appropriate. For example, it may be determined whether it isappropriate to perform any energy management (such a delaying a returnto the originally scheduled setpoints, gradually returning to originallyscheduled setpoints, etc.) during the post-event period 1706. It may beappropriate to perform such energy management if it is determined thatsuch energy management will result in a reduction of energy during theDR event period and, in some cases, reduce the impact of numerous energyconsumers placing high demands on the electric grid as soon as the DRevent period 1702 comes to an end. One particular example of a processthat may be used to determine whether it is appropriate to applypost-event energy management is described with reference to FIG. 22. Ifit is determined that it is appropriate to perform such energymanagement, then processing may continue to operation 1614.

In operation 1614 the magnitude and duration of the post-event energymanagement is determined. As mentioned, post-event energy management mayinclude one or more of delaying setpoint return, staggering setpointreturn, or other type of energy management. The magnitude of thepost-event energy management (e.g., size of the stagger and/or delay)may be determined as well as the duration (e.g., 30 minutes, 60 minutes,90 minutes, etc.). The magnitude and duration may be determined usingone or more of the basis previously described for generating the DRimplementation profile. It should be recognized that a variety of typesof techniques may be used to return the DR event-modified setpoints 1754to the originally scheduled setpoints 1752 during the post-event period.For example, the magnitude may be reduced incrementally in incrementshaving the same or different sizes, where one or more than one incrementmay be used. Similarly, the durations at which the setpoint is held ateach midpoint may be the same or different from one another. Thesetpoint return may be linear, exponential, or other curve shape. In atleast one embodiment, the time at which the DR event-modified setpoints1754 return to the originally scheduled setpoints 1752 may be random forsome or all of the participating energy consumers such that, as a whole,the post-event aggregate energy consumption is equally distributed overthe post-event period.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIG. 16 provide a particular process for generating a demand-responseevent implementation profile in accordance with an embodiment. Thevarious operations described with reference to FIG. 16 may beimplemented at and performed by one or more of a variety of electronicdevices or components described herein. For example, they may beimplemented at and performed by the energy management system 130, one ormore residences 150A-150N, the utility provider computing system 120,etc. Other sequences of operations may also be performed according toalternative embodiments. For example, alternative embodiments of thepresent invention may perform the operations outlined above in adifferent order. Moreover, the individual operations illustrated in FIG.16 may include multiple sub-operations that may be performed in varioussequences as appropriate to the individual operations. Furthermore,additional operations may be added or existing operations removeddepending on the particular applications. One of ordinary skill in theart would recognize and appreciate many variations, modifications, andalternatives.

As described with reference to FIG. 16, a specific process fordetermining whether pre-event energy management (e.g., pre-cooling) isappropriate is described with reference to FIG. 19, a specific processfor determining whether a setback-type DR event interval energyreduction is appropriate is described with reference to FIG. 20, aspecific process for determining whether a duty-cycling type DR eventinterval energy reduction is appropriate is described with reference toFIG. 21, and a specific process for determining whether post-eventenergy management is appropriate is described with reference to FIG. 22.Each of these particular processes is described in turn.

Turning to FIG. 19, FIG. 19 illustrates a process 1900 for determiningwhether pre-cooling is appropriate according to an embodiment. Inoperation 1902 it is determined whether the temperature outside of thestructure is mild to moderate. For example, it may be determined whetherthe temperature is in a particular range. If the temperature is notwithin this particular range, then processing may continue to operation1904 where it is determined not to apply pre-cooling. If the temperatureis within this range, however, then processing may continue to operation1906.

In operation 1906 it is determined whether the structure has a thermalretention characteristic indicating that the structure is moderatelysealed to well-sealed. For example, it may be determined whether theretention characteristic of the structure is in a particular range. Ifthe thermal retention characteristic is not within this particularrange, then processing may continue to operation 1904 where it isdetermined not to apply pre-cooling. If the thermal retentioncharacteristic is within this range, however, then processing maycontinue to operation 1908 where it is determined to apply pre-cooling.

It should be recognized that the process 1900 is a simplified processfor determining whether to apply pre-cooling. In many embodiments notone factor is determinative as to whether pre-cooling should be appliedor not, but rather a number of factors (such as those discussed withrespect to the basis used for the DR event implementation profile) arecombined to determine whether pre-cooling (or more generally, pre-eventenergy management) results in energy shifting. In this particularexample it is being illustrated that, in a pre-cooling environment,extremely hot weather or very poor thermal retention characteristics maybe strong (in some cases, determinative) indicators that pre-coolingwill not be effective at shifting energy from the DR event period toperiods outside of the DR event period.

Turning to FIG. 20, FIG. 20 illustrates a process 2000 for determiningwhether a setback-type DR event interval energy management mechanism isappropriate according to an embodiment. In operation 2002 it isdetermined whether the temperature outside of the structure is mild tomoderate. For example, it may be determined whether the temperature isin a particular range. If the temperature is not within this particularrange, then processing may continue to operation 2012 where it isdetermined not to use setback-type energy management during the DR eventinterval. If the temperature is within this range, however, thenprocessing may continue to operation 2004.

In operation 2004 it is determined whether the capacity of the coolingsystem (e.g., HVAC) relative to the volume to be cooled is medium tooversized. For example, it may be determined whether the capacity of thecooling system is in a particular range. If the capacity of the coolingsystem is not within this particular range, then processing may continueto operation 2012 where it is determined not to use setback-type energymanagement during the DR event interval. If the capacity of the coolingsystem is within this range, however, then processing may continue tooperation 2006.

In operation 2006 it is determined whether the structure has a thermalretention characteristic indicating that the structure is moderatelysealed to well-sealed. For example, it may be determined whether thestructure has a thermal retention characteristic in a particular range.If the thermal retention characteristic is not within this range, thenprocessing may continue to operation 2012 where it is determined not touse setback-type energy management during the DR event interval. If thethermal retention characteristic is within this range, however, thenprocessing may continue to operation 2008.

In operation 2008 it is determined whether the humidity outside of thestructure is low to moderate. For example, it may be determined whetherthe humidity is in a particular range. If the humidity is not withinthis range, then processing may continue to operation 2012 where it isdetermined not to use setback-type energy management during the DR eventinterval. If the humidity is within this range, however, then processingmay continue to operation 2010 where it is determined to usesetback-type energy management during the DR event interval.

It should be recognized that the process 2000 is a simplified processfor determining whether to use setback-type energy management during theDR event interval. In many embodiments not one factor is determinativeas to whether setback-type energy management should be applied or not,but rather a number of factors (such as those discussed with respect tothe basis used for the DR event implementation profile) are combined todetermine whether using setback-type energy management would result inenergy shifting. In this particular example it is being illustratedthat, during a DR event period, extremely hot weather or humid weather,very low HVAC capacity, or very poor thermal retention characteristicsmay be strong (in some cases, determinative) indicators that asetback-type energy management mechanism will not be effective atshifting energy from the DR event period to periods outside of the DRevent period.

Turning to FIG. 21, FIG. 21 illustrates a process 2100 for determiningwhether a duty cycling DR event interval energy management mechanism isappropriate according to an embodiment. In operation 2102 it isdetermined whether the temperature outside of the structure is hot. Forexample, it may be determined whether the temperature exceeds aparticular temperature. If it is determined that the temperature is nothot, i.e., does not exceed a particular temperature, then processing maycontinue to operation 2110 where it is determined not to use a dutycycling energy management mechanism during the DR event interval. If thetemperature does exceed the particular temperature, however, thenprocessing may continue to operation 2104.

In operation 2104 it is determined whether the capacity of the coolingsystem (e.g., HVAC) relative to the volume to be cooled is undersized.For example, it may be determined whether the capacity of the coolingsystem is less than a particular amount. If the capacity of the coolingsystem is not less than the particular amount, then processing maycontinue to operation 2110 where it is determined not to use a dutycycling energy management mechanism during the DR event interval. If thecapacity of the cooling system is less than the particular amount,however, then processing may continue to operation 2106.

In operation 2106 it is determined whether the humidity outside of thestructure is high. For example, it may be determined whether thehumidity exceeds a particular amount. If the humidity does not exceedthe particular amount, then processing may continue to operation 2110where it is determined not to use a duty cycling energy managementmechanism during the DR event interval. If the humidity does exceed theparticular amount, however, then processing may continue to operation2108 where it is determined to use a duty cycling energy managementmechanism during the DR event interval.

It should be recognized that the process 2100 is a simplified processfor determining whether to use a duty cycling energy managementmechanism during the DR event interval. In many embodiments not onefactor is determinative as to whether a duty cycling energy managementmechanism should be applied or not, but rather a number of factors (suchas those discussed with respect to the basis used for the DR eventimplementation profile) are combined to determine whether a duty cyclingenergy management mechanism would result in energy shifting. In thisparticular example it is being illustrated that, during a DR eventperiod, extremely hot weather, extremely high humidity, or a very lowHVAC capacity may be strong (in some cases, determinative) indicatorsthat a duty cycling energy management mechanism will be effective atshifting energy from the DR event period to periods outside of the DRevent period.

Turning to FIG. 22, FIG. 22 illustrates a process 2200 for determiningwhether post-event (i.e., snapback) energy management is appropriateaccording to an embodiment. In operation 2202 it is determined a requestto implement post-DR event energy management is received. For example,in some cases an entity (such as utility provider computing system 120)may communicate a request to the energy management 130 to performpost-DR event energy management. If such a request is received, thenprocessing may continue to operation 2204 where post-event energymanagement is applied. Otherwise, processing may continue to operation2206.

In operation 2206 it is determined whether a post DR-event grid load islikely to exceed a particular threshold. For example, it may bedetermined whether the aggregate energy consumption of residences150A-150N may exceed a particular threshold, and/or it may be determinedwhether an aggregate load on power distribution network 160 exceeds athreshold. The expected load may be calculated prior to the end of theDR event period, and may be calculated using one or more of a variety ofinformation that energy management system 130 has at its disposal, suchas the scheduled setpoints for residences 150A-150N, the thermalretention characteristics for those residences, the HVAC capacities ofthose residences, the occupancy probability profiles for thoseresidences, expected weather forecast, etc. The threshold may be set byutility provider computing system 120 or some other suitable entity. Ifit is determined that the aggregate post-DR event grid load is likely toexceed the threshold, then processing may continue to operation 2204where post-event energy management is applied. Otherwise, processing maycontinue to operation 2208.

In operation 2208 it is determined whether the monitored (i.e., actual)post DR-event grid load actually exceeds the threshold. For example,after the DR event is complete, the load on the power distributionnetwork 160 and/or the actual real-time energy consumption of residences150A-150N may be monitored. If it is determined that the monitoredenergy consumption exceeds the threshold, then processing may continueto operation 2204 where post-event energy management is applied.Otherwise, processing may continue to operation 2210.

In operation 2210 it is determined whether post DR-event energymanagement is likely to reduce energy consumption during the DR eventperiod. For example, the estimated post-DR event energy consumption maybe compared to a baseline post-DR event energy consumption. If theestimated energy consumption is likely to be greater than the baselinepost-DR event energy consumption, then processing may continue tooperation 2204 where post-event energy management is applied. Otherwise,processing may continue to operation 2212 where post DR-event energymanagement is not applied.

It should be recognized that the process 2200 is a simplified processfor determining whether to perform post DR-event energy management. Inmany embodiments not one factor is determinative as to whether postDR-event energy management should be applied or not, but rather a numberof factors are combined to determine whether post DR-event energymanagement would assist in energy shifting. It should further berecognized that a process similar that described with reference to FIG.22 may alternatively or additionally be applied to determining whetherto apply pre DR-event energy management (e.g., pre-cooling). In such acase, the operations may be modified to refer to a “pre DR-event” ratherthan a “post DR-event”. For example, operation 2202 may be modified toreceiving a request to implement pre-DR event energy management.Operation 2206 may be modified to determine whether a pre DR-event gridload is likely greater than a predetermined amount. One skilled in theart would recognize how to similarly apply such changes to the remainderof the operations described with reference to FIG. 22.

As described in various places, e.g., with respect to operation 1408 ofFIG. 14, one or more metrics indicative of an amount of energy likely tobe shifted as a result of an enrolled energy consumer participating in aDR event may be calculated. At the time of performing such acalculation, in many embodiments a DR event has already been defined, ashas a DR event implementation profile for the energy consumer. Further,as the DR event is likely to occur soon (e.g., within a matter of days)after calculating the one or more metrics indicative of an amount ofenergy likely to be shifted, the originally scheduled setpoints for theDR event (or very accurate estimates thereof) may also be acquired.These, in combination with the ability of the structure associated withthe energy consumer and, in some cases, the likely cost of energy overthe DR event, can be used to determine the one or more metricsindicative of the amount of energy likely to be shifted. One particularprocess for calculating such metrics is described with reference to FIG.23.

Specifically, FIG. 23 illustrates a process 2300 for generating one ormore metrics indicative of an amount of energy likely be shifted by anenrolled energy consumer if the energy consumer participates in ademand-response event according to an embodiment. To facilitateunderstanding, the process 1000 is described with reference to FIG. 1and FIG. 2, although it should be understood that embodiments of theprocess 1000 are not limited to the exemplary systems and apparatusdescribed with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2.

In operation 2302 the characteristics of the DR event are determined. Aspreviously described, a DR event is defined by a DR event profile thatincludes information such as the DR event period, DR event magnitude,geographical scope of the DR event, etc. Accordingly, suchcharacteristic information may be received by the utility providercomputing system 120, generated by the energy management system 130, orreceived or generated in part or in whole by another suitable entity.

In operation 2304, the HVAC schedule of the energy consumer over the DRevent period is determined. In determining the HVAC schedule of theenergy consumer, the HVAC schedule set by the energy consumer may beacquired. For example, energy management system 130 may receive the HVACschedule from one or more of the thermostat 202 and access device 266.In some cases, the HVAC schedule may not be explicitly set by the energyconsumer, but rather may be learned by the thermostat 202 and/or otherelectronic devices associated with the energy consumer. In such a case,the learned and/or manually set setpoints may be acquired.

Once the HVAC schedule is determined, processing may continue tooperation 2306 where the DR implementation profile for the DR event isdetermined. The DR implementation profile indicates the setpoints to beimplemented for the energy consumer during a DR event instead of theirscheduled setpoints. In determining the DR implementation profile, anumber of factors may be taken into consideration. These factors mayinclude, for example, the HVAC schedule determined in operation 2302,the occupancy probability profile, the thermal retention characteristicof the structure associated with the energy consumer, the HVAC capacityof the structure associated with the energy consumer, the DR eventprofile, any indication as to the energy consumer's amenability to loadshifting, past DR event behavior, weather forecast, etc. Some particularmethods for generating a DR implementation profile are described withreference to FIGS. 16 through FIG. 22.

In operation 2308 the ability of the structure associated with theenergy consumer to load shift, for example one of residences 150A-150N,is determined. The ability of a structure to load shift may becalculated based on a number of factors, such as the capacity of anenvironmental management system of the structure relative to a volume ofthe structure to be environmentally managed. The environmentalmanagement system may be, e.g., an HVAC, a cooling system, a heatingsystem, a humidifier, etc. The ability to load shift may also oralternatively be based on the environmental retention characteristics ofthe structure. Environmental retention characteristics refer to astructures ability to retain heat, retain cold, retain humidity, retaindryness, etc. Various techniques for determining the environmentalretention characteristics of a structure may be used. Some particulartechniques are described in U.S. patent application Ser. Nos. 12/881,463and 13/632,152, supra. Further, it should be recognized that whilethermal retention is described in numerous places herein, embodimentsare not so limited. Rather, other types of environmental retention maybe considered and/or used depending on the particular environmentalconditions at the structure and type of energy management beingperformed during a DR event.

In operation 2310, the amount of energy likely to be shifted from the DRevent period to another time period is calculated. Such a calculationmay use some or all of the aforementioned factors, such as the HVACschedule, the DR implementation profile, and the ability of thestructure to load shift. In one particular embodiment, a ‘baseline’energy consumption for the DR event may first be determined using theHVAC schedule for the DR event and the structures ability to load shift.The likely energy consumption as a result of participating in the DRevent may then be determined using the DR implementation profile and thestructures ability to load shift. The difference of these values maythen be taken as the amount of energy likely to be shifted from the DRevent period to another time period.

In operation 2312, the likely value per unit of energy over the DR eventperiod may be determined. The likely value per unit may be, for example,an expected cost per unit of energy. In the context of electricalenergy, this may be a cost per kWh or other suitable unit. The expectedcost per unit of energy may be determined using one or more of a varietyof sources, such as contracted energy costs (i.e., a cost of energy asdefined by the DR program), historical energy costs (i.e., energy costsfrom prior similar DR events, energy costs during prior similar weatherpatterns as expected for the DR event, etc.

In operation 2314 the value of energy likely to be shifted from the DRevent period to another time period is determined. This value of energymay be determined by multiplying the likely value per unit of energydetermined in operation 2312 with the amount of energy likely to beshifted calculated in operation 2310. In one particular embodiment, thevalue of energy likely be shifted represents only the energy reductionthat is likely to occur during the DR event period. In otherembodiments, however, the value of energy likely be shifted may alsoincorporate increased energy consumption outside of the DR event period.

In operation 2316, one or more metrics indicative of the amount ofenergy likely to be shifted as a result of participating in the DR eventare communicated to the energy consumer. The metrics may include theamount of energy likely to be shifted as described with reference tooperation 2310. The metrics may also or alternatively include the valueof energy likely to be shifted (e.g., as described with respect tooperation 2314). In one particular embodiment, energy management system130 may communicate the one or more metrics to one or more electronicdevices of residences 150A-150N associated with the identified energyconsumer, including one or more of an intelligent, multi-sensing,network-connected thermostat 202 and an access device 266 associatedwith the identified energy consumer.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIG. 23 provide a particular process for generating one or more metricsindicative of an amount of energy likely be shifted by an enrolledenergy consumer if the energy consumer participates in a demand-responseevent according to an embodiment. The various operations described withreference to FIG. 23 may be implemented at and performed by one or moreof a variety of electronic devices or components described herein. Forexample, they may be implemented at and performed by the energymanagement system 130, one or more residences 150A-150N, the utilityprovider computing system 120, etc. Other sequences of operations mayalso be performed according to alternative embodiments. For example,alternative embodiments of the present invention may perform theoperations outlined above in a different order. Moreover, the individualoperations illustrated in FIG. 23 may include multiple sub-operationsthat may be performed in various sequences as appropriate to theindividual operations. Furthermore, additional operations may be addedor existing operations removed depending on the particular applications.For example, where only energy estimates (i.e., no value estimates) areneeded, operations 2312 and 2314 may be omitted. One of ordinary skillin the art would recognize and appreciate many variations,modifications, and alternatives.

As described with reference to operation 1402, each identified energyconsumer that is enrolled in a DR program may be notified of an upcomingDR event. The notification generally includes information regarding theDR event profile, such as when the DR event is to occur, how long the DRevent will last, etc. Further, as described with reference to operation1410, one or more metrics indicative of the amount of energy likely beshifted as a result of that particular energy consumer participating inthe upcoming DR event may also be communicated to the energy consumer.While such information may be communicated to the energy consumer in avariety of ways, one particular technique for doing so is described withreference to FIGS. 24A through 24C.

FIGS. 24A through 24C illustrate a simplified graphical user interfacefor presenting a DR event notification to an energy consumer accordingto an embodiment. While the graphical user interface (GUI) is presentedin the form of an interface that may be displayed on a circular-shapeddevice such as the device 300 discussed with reference to FIGS. 3Athrough 3C, embodiments are not so limited as similar GUI's could bepresented on other devices of other shapes.

Turning to the figures, FIG. 24A illustrates an input/output (I/O)element 2400 which may be, e.g., user interface 304 (FIG. 3A), outputdevice 606 and/or input device 608 (FIG. 6), or other suitable I/Oelement 2400 of an electronic device associated with an identifiedenergy consumer which is participating in the DR program. The I/Oelement 2400 includes a notification message 2402 displaying informationregarding the upcoming DR event, such as the date and time of the event.The I/O element 2400 also includes a selectable input mechanism 2404whereby the user can either accept or reject the offer. In one specificexample, ring 320 could be rotated and/or depressed to either accept orreject the offer. In this particular example, the I/O element 2400simultaneously displays an energy savings estimate 2406 which is one ormore metrics indicative of the amount of energy likely to be shifted asa result of that particular energy consumer participating the DR event.The estimated savings in this particular example is illustrated as adollar savings, but in other examples may also or alternatively beillustrated as a magnitude of energy savings (e.g., kWh), AC run time,percentages, etc. AC run time, in some embodiments, may be a good metricwhere information regarding pricing or HVAC capacity is unknown. Theestimated savings may be calculated based on a default or expected levelof participation, such as a level of participation input by the energyconsumer at the time of enrolling.

FIG. 24B illustrates the I/O element 2400 in the event the user acceptsthe offer to participate in the DR event. The I/O element 2400 includesa participation level request message 2410 displaying a request for theidentified energy consumer to select their desired level ofparticipation in the DR event. This may range from a minimum level ofparticipation to a maximum level of participation in the event. The I/Oelement 2400 may include a controllable slider 2412 that enables theidentified energy consumer to select any level of participation on agradient ranging from minimum to maximum participation. In one specificexample, ring 320 could be rotated and/or depressed to select the levelof participation. The I/O element 2400 may also include an estimatedsavings 2416 the identified energy consumer may realize if theyparticipate at the level of participation indicated by the slider 2416.The estimated savings in this particular example is illustrated as adollar savings, but in other examples may also or alternatively beillustrated as a magnitude of energy savings (e.g., kWh). The estimatedsavings may also be recalculated and re-displayed in real-time inresponse to the energy consumer changing their level of participation.

FIG. 24C illustrates the I/O element 2400 in the event the identifiedenergy consumer accepts the offer to participate in the DR event and, insome embodiments, in the event the identified energy consumer selectstheir desired level of participation. The I/O element 2400 includes athank you message 2420 thanking the identified energy consumer forparticipating the DR event.

It should be appreciated that the specific I/O elements illustrated inFIGS. 24A through 24C describe particular I/O elements according tocertain embodiments. The I/O elements described with reference to FIGS.24A through 24C may be implemented at and performed by one or more of avariety of electronic devices associated with the identified energyconsumer. For example, they may be implemented at and performed by oneor more of the a thermostat 202, hazard detection unit 204, entrywayinterface device 206, wall light switch 208, wall plug interface 210,appliance 212, access device 266, or other electronic device associatedwith the identified energy consumer. The various messages and inputelements may not necessarily be displayed at different times, but rathersome messages could be presented simultaneously on the same display.Some messages could be communicated using other communicationmechanisms, and responses could similarly be received using othercommunication mechanisms. For example, audible, touch, or otherinput/output mechanisms could be used. Further, it should be recognizedthat additional or alternative information could be presented to requestparticipation in a DR event, and all of the information illustrated inFIGS. 24A through 24C need not be presented. For example, an option toparticipate or refuse participation in a DR event may not be presented,and/or a level of participation may not be set by the user in someembodiments. One of ordinary skill in the art would recognize andappreciate many variations, modifications, and alternatives.

As described with reference to operation 1420 of FIG. 14, an energyconsumer may alter one or more basis used for creating a DR eventimplementation profile. For example, the energy consumer may change thesetpoints defined by the DR event implementation profile to shift energyeither more aggressively or less aggressively. In some embodiments, theenergy consumer may make such changes to the scheduled setpoints using ascheduler provided on one or more electronic devices (e.g., accessdevice 266) associated with the energy consumer. Such changes may bedone either before or during the DR event period. One particularscheduler interface for facilitating such changes is described withreference to FIGS. 25A through 25F.

FIGS. 25A through 25F illustrate a simplified graphical user interfaceof a schedule of setpoints associated with an energy consumer that hasagreed to participate in a DR event according to an embodiment. Varioustechniques for modifying scheduled setpoint temperatures for athermostat are described in commonly assigned U.S. patent applicationSer. No. 13/624,875 (client reference number NES0245), filed Sep. 21,2012, the contents of which are incorporated herein in their entiretyfor all purposes. While the graphical user interface (GUI) is presentedin the form of an interface that may be displayed on arectangular-shaped device, embodiments are not so limited as similarGUI's could be presented in other forms.

Turning to the figures, FIG. 25A illustrates an input/output (I/O)element 2500 including a number of originally scheduled setpoints 2502according to an embodiment. The originally scheduled setpoints 2502 inthis example are defined at hourly intervals from noon until 9 pm andindicate a setpoint (i.e., desired) temperature of 74° F. throughout theentire time period.

FIG. 25B illustrates the I/O element 2500 including a number of DRevent-modified setpoints 2510 prior to beginning the DR event. The DRevent-modified setpoints 2510 are new setpoints defined by the DR eventimplementation profile that replace the originally scheduled setpoints.In this particular example, the DR-event modified setpoints 2510 areidentified by an additional graphical ring around each setpoint,although in other embodiments such setpoints could be identified usingother techniques, such as using a color different than the originallyscheduled setpoints, using a different font for the numbers or text,etc. It may be recognized that while the DR-event modified setpoints2510 span over the DR event period (e.g., from 2 pm-7 pm), they may alsospan over other time periods (e.g., a pre-cooling period from 1 pm-2pm). In cases where a DR event-modified setpoint 2510 is not defined,the originally scheduled setpoints 2502 may remain. In this particularexample, a savings estimate 2512 is also displayed indicating to theenergy consumer an estimate of the value of the energy shifting likelyto occur if the DR event implementation profile is followed.

FIG. 25C illustrates the I/O element 2500 including a number of DRevent-modified setpoints 2510 partway through the DR event. In thisparticular example, the energy consumer may be notified as to how faralong the DR event they have progressed, and whether each setpointachieved the expected energy shifting. In the case that a time periodassociated with a particular setpoint has passed, and the setpoint wasnot altered to reduce the expected energy savings, a successfulimplementation indicator 2520 may be displayed. In this particularexample, the successful implementation indicator 2520 is graphicallyillustrated as a leaf, although other shapes, objects, or graphicalindications may be used and may have one or more of a variety of colors,such as a gold colored gear. The successful implementation indicator2520, in some embodiments, may indicate that the thermostat issuccessfully following or applying the DR implementation profile (i.e.,no user setpoint changes to the DR implementation profile). Asmentioned, the successful implementation indicator 2520 may be displayedif the setpoint was not altered to reduce the expected energy savings.For example, if the energy consumer did not alter the setpoint, then theindicator 2520 may be displayed. In this particular embodiment, theenergy consumer has successfully progressed through four DRevent-modified setpoints 2510.

FIG. 25D illustrates the I/O element 2500 including a number of DRevent-modified setpoints 2510 partway through a DR even subject to anenergy consumer-instigated change to a DR event-modified setpointresulting in a decrease of energy shifting. In this particular example,the energy consumer's cooling system is being managed to deal with hottemperatures. The energy consumer reduced the 7 pm DR event-modifiedsetpoint 2530 by 4° F. from 76° F. to 72° F. In this situation, such areduction will result in reduced energy shifting, and as a result asuccessful implementation indicator 2520 may not be displayed for thesetpoint 2530. Further, in some embodiments the savings estimate 2512may be modified to reflect an updated estimate to the value of theenergy shifting likely to occur as a result of the change in setpoint2530. A savings correction notification 2532 is also displayedindicating the change in value from the estimate prior to the change andthe estimate after the change.

FIG. 25E illustrates the I/O element 2500 including a number of DRevent-modified setpoints 2510 partway through a DR even subject to anenergy consumer-instigated change to a DR event-modified setpointresulting in an increase of energy shifting. This example is similar tothat described with reference to FIG. 25D, but in this case the 7 pmDR-event modified setpoint 2530 is increased 2° F. from 76° F. to 78° F.In this situation, such an increase will result in an increased energyshifting, and as a result a successful implementation indicator 2520 maystill be displayed for the setpoint 2530. Further, the savings estimate2512 is modified to reflect an updated estimate to the value of theenergy shifting likely to occur as a result of the change in setpoint2530, and a savings correction notification 2532 is also displayedindicating the change in value from the estimate prior to the change andthe estimate after the change.

FIG. 25F illustrates the I/O element 2500 including a number of DRevent-modified setpoints 2510 after completion of the DR event. In thisparticular example, the energy consumer completed the entire DR event inaccordance with the DR event implementation profile. Accordingly,successful implementation indicators 2520 are displayed for eachevent-modified setpoint 2510. Further, in some embodiments the actualamount of savings 2540 resulting in energy costs resulting fromparticipation in the DR event may be calculated and displayed.

It should be appreciated that the specific I/O elements illustrated inFIGS. 25A through 25F describe particular I/O elements according tocertain embodiments. The I/O elements described with reference to FIGS.25A through 25F may be implemented at and performed by one or more of avariety of electronic devices associated with the identified energyconsumer. For example, they may be implemented at and performed by oneor more of the a thermostat 202, hazard detection unit 204, entrywayinterface device 206, wall light switch 208, wall plug interface 210,appliance 212, access device 266, or other electronic device associatedwith the identified energy consumer. The various messages and inputelements may not necessarily be displayed at different times, but rathersome messages could be presented simultaneously on the same display.Some messages could be communicated using other communicationmechanisms, and responses could similarly be received using othercommunication mechanisms. For example, audible, touch, or otherinput/output mechanisms could be used. Further, it should be recognizedthat additional or alternative information could be presented to requestenrollment and a participation level, and all of the informationillustrated in FIGS. 25A through 25F need not be presented. For example,in some embodiments, the energy consumer may not be provided with anopportunity to change the DR event-modified setpoints at all. Forexample, with reference to FIG. 25B, all of the DR event-modifiedsetpoints 2510 may be blacked out or otherwise hidden from the energyconsumer. Or, in some embodiments, simply not changeable by the energyconsumer. For another example, in some embodiments a consumer may not benotified of a DR event at all. This may be particularly advantageous for‘instantaneous’ DR events, where a DR event notification is communicatedto a thermostat shortly before the DR event begins. In these or othercases there may be no notification to the consumer of the DR event(e.g., no “DR EVENT” notification as described with reference to FIG.26A), but rather the thermostat may display temperature setpoints asdefined by the DR implementation profile without displaying an explicitnotification that the thermostat is actively implementing a DRimplementation profile. Accordingly, in some cases the I/O element 2600may display the originally scheduled setpoints even duringimplementation of a DR implementation profile, whereas in other casesthe I/O element 2600 may alternatively or additionally display the DRimplementation profile setpoints during implementation of the DRimplementation profile. In at least one embodiment, the setpoints shownto the user may change based on whether the user attempts to view thosesetpoints before, during, or after the DR event. For example, before andduring the DR event the user's typically scheduled setpoints may bedisplayed, whereas after the DR event the DR implementation profilesetpoints may be displayed. One of ordinary skill in the art wouldrecognize and appreciate many variations, modifications, andalternatives.

In addition or alternatively to changing scheduled setpointtemperatures, an energy consumer may modify their immediate setpointtemperature. Various techniques for modifying an immediate setpointtemperature of a thermostat are described in commonly assigned U.S.patent application Ser. No. 13/356,762 (client reference numberNES0176), filed Jan. 24, 2012, the contents of which are incorporatedherein in their entirety for all purposes. Such immediate setpointtemperatures may be changed before, during, or after a DR event. Ifchanging such setpoint temperatures during a DR event result in a changeto the estimated energy shifting, then the energy consumer may benotified and confirmation of the change required.

FIGS. 26A through 26D illustrate a simplified graphical user interfacefor responding to immediate setpoint changes during a DR event accordingto an embodiment. While the graphical user interface (GUI) is presentedin the form of an interface that may be displayed on a circular-shapeddevice such as the device 300 discussed with reference to FIGS. 3Athrough 3C, embodiments are not so limited as similar GUI's could bepresented on other devices of other shapes.

Turning to the figures, FIG. 26A illustrates an input/output (I/O)element 2600 which may be, e.g., user interface 304 (FIG. 3A), outputdevice 606 and/or input device 608 (FIG. 6), or other suitable I/Oelement 2600 of an electronic device used by an energy consumer during aDR event. The I/O element 2600 includes a current setpoint temperature2602 displaying the immediate setpoint to the identified energyconsumer. The I/O element 2600 also includes a current temperatureindicator 2604 indicating the current temperature inside of thestructure, and in some cases a current setpoint temperature indicator2608 indicating the immediate setpoint and graphically displayedrelative to the current temperature indicator 2604. The I/O element 2600may also include a DR event indicator 2610 indicating that energyconsumption of the energy consumer is currently being managed. In thisparticular example, the DR event indicator 2610 is a textual display of“DR EVENT”, but in other embodiments the DR event indicator 2610 maytake other forms or textual sequences, such as “RUSH HOUR”. Such anindicator may be displayed during the DR event period, but may also bedisplayed during other time periods over which energy consumption isbeing managed, such as during the pre-event period and/or post-eventperiod. The I/O element 2600 may also include a successfulimplementation indicator 2612 similar to indicator 2520.

FIG. 26B illustrates an input/output (I/O) element 2600 in which theenergy consumer alters the immediate setpoint to result in a decrease ofenergy shifting. In this particular example, the energy consumer hasreduced the immediate setpoint temperature by 7° F. from 75° F. to 68°F. The energy consumer is presented with a confirmation message 2620requesting confirmation of the change, as well as a selectable inputmechanism 2622 whereby the user can either accept or reject the change.The energy consumer may also be presented with a savings correctionnotification 2624 indicating the change in value of energy shifting thatis likely to result if the energy consumer's change to the immediatesetpoint is accepted. In some embodiments, the desired change to theimmediate setpoint temperature may cause the energy consumer to opt-outof the DR event (e.g., due to the change resulting in the structure notachieving any energy shifting). In such a case, the energy consumer mayalso be presented with a message indicating that their change willresult in them opting out of the DR event, and a confirmation messagerequesting confirmation of their desire to opt-out.

FIG. 26C illustrates an input/output (I/O) element 2600 in which theenergy consumer alters the immediate setpoint to result in an increaseof energy shifting. In this particular example, the energy consumer hasincreased the immediate setpoint temperature by 3° F. from 75° F. to 78°F. The energy consumer in this example is not presented with aconfirmation message but rather the desired change is immediatelyaccepted as it increased energy shifting. In other examples, the energyconsumer may be presented with a confirmation message. The energyconsumer may also be presented with a savings correction notification2624 indicating the change in value of energy shifting that is likely toresult due to the energy consumer's change to the immediate setpoint. Insome cases, information, such as the implementation indicator 2612, maybe removed from the display.

FIG. 26D illustrates the I/O element 2600 upon completion of the DRevent. The I/O element 2600 includes an event completion message 2640notifying the energy consumer that the DR event is completed. The I/Oelement 2600 may also include an actual savings notification 2642indicating the value of energy savings actually achieved as a result ofthe energy consumer's participation in the DR event, as well as anexpected savings notification 2644 indicating the value of energysavings that was expected to be achieved as a result of the energyconsumer's participation in the DR event.

It should be appreciated that the specific I/O elements illustrated inFIGS. 26A through 26D describe particular I/O elements according tocertain embodiments. The I/O elements described with reference to FIGS.26A through 26D may be implemented at and performed by one or more of avariety of electronic devices associated with the identified energyconsumer. For example, they may be implemented at and performed by oneor more of the a thermostat 202, hazard detection unit 204, entrywayinterface device 206, wall light switch 208, wall plug interface 210,appliance 212, access device 266, or other electronic device associatedwith the identified energy consumer. The various messages and inputelements may not necessarily be displayed at different times, but rathersome messages could be presented simultaneously on the same display.Some messages could be communicated using other communicationmechanisms, and responses could similarly be received using othercommunication mechanisms. For example, audible, touch, or otherinput/output mechanisms could be used. Further, it should be recognizedthat additional or alternative information could be presented to requestenrollment and a participation level, and all of the informationillustrated in FIGS. 26A through 26D need not be presented. For example,in some embodiments a consumer may not be notified of a DR event at all.This may be particularly advantageous for ‘instantaneous’ DR events,where a DR event notification is communicated to a thermostat shortlybefore the DR event begins. In these or other cases there may be nonotification to the consumer of the DR event (e.g., no “DR EVENT”notification as described with reference to FIG. 26A), but rather thethermostat may display temperature setpoints as defined by the DRimplementation profile without displaying an explicit notification thatthe thermostat is actively implementing a DR implementation profile. Insome cases, while no explicit notification is provided, an implicitnotification may be provided (e.g., by constant display of theimplementation indicator 2612 during implementation of the DRimplementation profile) that indicates the thermostat is activelyshifting energy. One of ordinary skill in the art would recognize andappreciate many variations, modifications, and alternatives.

As described with reference to operation 1218, the tendencies andpreferences of the occupants of a structure (e.g., preferredtemperatures, humidity's, etc. for different times of the day, fordifferent occupants, etc.) may be learned, where specific learningalgorithms are further described in U.S. Provisional Application No.61/550,346, supra. In some embodiments, in addition to learningpreferred temperatures, humidity's, etc. during regular (i.e., non-DRevent) time periods, the tendencies and preferences of occupants withrespect to participation in a DR event may also be learned. For example,a DR event implementation profile may be implemented for a particularenergy consumer. During the DR event, the energy consumer may indicateincreases or decreases the amount of energy shifting resulting fromparticipation in the DR event (e.g., due to changing the DR eventimplementation setpoints). Such changes made during the DR event may beused in the generation of DR event implementation profiles forsubsequent DR events. For example, where an energy consumer indicates anincrease in the amount of energy shifting resulting from participationin a first DR event, the DR implementation profile for a second,subsequent event may be made to more aggressively shift energy ascompared to the DR implementation profile originally generated for thefirst event. FIG. 27 illustrates a particular process for learning thepreferences of energy consumers during DR events, although it should berecognized that some or all of the learning processes described in U.S.Provisional Application No. 61/550,346, supra, may similarly be appliedherein.

Specifically, FIG. 27 illustrates a process 2700 for learning userpreferences indicated during a DR event according to an embodiment. Inoperation 2702 the scheduled setpoints prior to application of a DRimplementation profile (i.e., the originally scheduled setpoints) may bedetermined. For example, with reference to FIG. 25D, these may beoriginally scheduled setpoints 2502. In determining the originallyscheduled setpoints, a schedule set by the energy consumer may beacquired. For example, energy management system 130 may receive an HVACschedule from one or more of the thermostat 202 and access device 266.In some cases, the schedule may not be explicitly set by the energyconsumer, but rather may be learned (e.g., using some or all of thelearning processed described in U.S. Provisional Application No.61/550,346, supra) by the thermostat 202 and/or other electronic devicesassociated with the energy consumer. In such a case, the learned and/ormanually set setpoints may be acquired.

In operation 2704, the DR event-modified setpoints are determined. Forexample, with reference to FIG. 25D, these may be DR event-modifiedsetpoints 2510. These may be determined from the DR implementationprofile.

In operation 2706 it is determined whether the energy consumer changesany of the DR event-modified setpoints. It may be determined whether thechange is an increase or a decrease in the setpoint value. For example,with reference to FIG. 25D, when an energy consumer reduces a DRevent-modified setpoint from 76° F. to 72° F., it may be determined thata decrease in the DR event-modified setpoint has occurred. For anotherexample, with reference to FIG. 26B, when an energy consumer reduces aDR event-modified setpoint (in this example, a current setpoint) from72° F. to 68° F., it may be determined that a decrease in the DRevent-modified setpoint has occurred.

If it is determined that there are no changes to the DR event-modifiedsetpoints, then processing may continue to operation 2710 whereinformation indicating the user's acceptance of the DR event-modifiedsetpoints is stored. In contrast, if it is determined that there arechanges to the DR event-modified setpoints, then processing may continueto operation 2708.

In operation 2708 the time and magnitude of the deviation aredetermined. For example, with reference to FIG. 25D, when an energyconsumer reduces a DR event-modified setpoint from 76° F. to 72° F., the7 pm time of the setpoint change as well as the 4° F. magnitude of thechange may be determined. In some cases, the values of the DRevent-modified setpoints prior to and after change (i.e., 76° F. and 72°F.) may also be determined, as may be the corresponding originallyscheduled setpoint (i.e., 74° F.). Processing may then continue tooperation 2710, where the time, magnitude, and other information may bestored.

Information identifying the aforementioned deviations may be stored inany suitable element of system 100, such as the energy management system130, one or more residences 150A-150N, the utility provider computingsystem 120, etc. Such stored information may subsequently be used whendetermining the DR implementation profile for a subsequent DR eventprofile. For example, as described with reference to operation 1602,past DR event behavior may be used when identifying the basis for the DRimplementation profile. One particular process for using the storeddeviations is described with reference to FIG. 28.

Specifically, FIG. 28 illustrates a particular process for modifying aDR implementation profile based on user preferences indicated during aprior DR event according to an embodiment. In operation 2802,information indicating deviations (or lack thereof) to DR event-modifiedsetpoints for one or more previous DR events is identified. For example,this could be information stored in operation 2710.

In operation 2804 it is determined whether there were any deviations tothe DR event-modified setpoints for the previous DR event(s). If not,then processing may continue to operation 2806, where a DRimplementation for a current DR event is not altered. In someembodiments, even though there were no deviations for past DR events,the DR implementation for a current DR event may nonetheless be altered.For example, the DR implementation for the current DR event may bealtered to more aggressively shift energy in an effort to slowlyincrease the amount of energy shifting caused a particular energyconsumer.

If, on the other hand, in operation 2804 it is determined that there isa deviation, then processing may continue to operation 2808. Inoperation 2808 it is determined whether the deviation indicates more anincrease in (e.g., more aggressive) energy shifting. For example, withreference to FIG. 25E, an increase in the temperature of the DRevent-modified setpoint 2530 would result in an increased energy shiftor, at the very least, an indication of a desire for more aggressiveenergy shifting. Accordingly, if it is determined that the deviationindicates an increase in energy shifting, processing may continue tooperation 2810.

In operation 2810 the DR implementation profile for the current DR eventis altered to result in more aggressive energy shifting. For example,referring to FIG. 25B, instead of setting the DR event period setpointsto 76° F., the DR implementation profile may push for more aggressiveenergy shifting by setting the DR event period setpoints to 77° F. Incontrast, if it is determined in operation 2808 that the deviation doesnot indicate an increase in energy shifting, but rather indicates adecrease in (e.g., less aggressive) energy shifting, then processing maycontinue to operation 2812.

In operation 2812 the DR implementation profile for the current DR eventis altered to result in less aggressive energy shifting. For example,referring to FIG. 25B, instead of setting the DR event period setpointsto 76° F., the DR implementation profile may allow for less aggressiveenergy shifting by setting the DR event period setpoints to 75° F.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIGS. 27 and 28 provide particular processes for learning and applyingenergy consumers' DR event preferences according to embodiments. Thevarious operations described with reference to FIGS. 27 and 28 may beimplemented at and performed by one or more of a variety of electronicdevices or components described herein. For example, they may beimplemented at and performed by a thermostat 202, an access device 266,or other electronic device described in accordance with the smart homeenvironment 200, the energy management system 130, the utility providercomputing system 120, etc. Other sequences of operations may also beperformed according to alternative embodiments. For example, alternativeembodiments of the present invention may perform the operations outlinedabove in a different order. Moreover, the individual operationsillustrated in FIGS. 27 and 28 may include multiple sub-operations thatmay be performed in various sequences as appropriate to the individualoperations. Furthermore, additional operations may be added or existingoperations removed depending on the particular applications. One ofordinary skill in the art would recognize and appreciate manyvariations, modifications, and alternatives.

Turning back to FIG. 1, in many embodiments, energy management system130 may manage the energy consumption at one or more residences150A-150N. Such energy management may be performed for and during a DRevent having characteristics (such as a desired reduction in energyconsumption during the DR event on a particular electric grid) definedby the utility provider associated with utility provider computingsystem 120. In some embodiments, energy management system 130 mayprovide the utility provider, via utility provider computing system 120,various information regarding the status and progress of the energyreduction mechanisms implemented by the energy management system 130.For example, the energy management system 130 may allow the utilityprovider to see which particular residences 150A-150N are participatingin a DR event, how much energy shifting each residence has actuallyperformed, whether the actual aggregate energy reduction during the DRevent period is close to the desired aggregate energy reductioninitially instructed by the utility provider. In one particularembodiment, such information may be presented to the utility providervia a utility portal. The utility portal may a website hosted by theenergy management system 130 or other third party entity, may be anapplication executed at the utility provider computing system 120, maybe an application executable on a portable electronic device provided toone or more members of the utility provider, or other type of interfacethat allows the utility provider to acquire, manage, and respond to suchinformation. In at least one embodiment, the various informationprovided to the utility provider may be provided in real-time so thatthe utility provider may monitor the characteristics and effectivenessof the energy reduction mechanisms employed by the energy managementsystem 130.

FIG. 29A illustrates an input/output (I/O) element 2900 including autility portal summary according to an embodiment. A variety ofinformation regarding an energy management mechanism employed by theenergy management system 130 may be presented to the utility providervia the I/O element 2900. Such information may initially be stored atenergy management system 130 and/or electronic devices at residences150A-150N. In one particular embodiment, the information may be acquiredby and aggregated at a server of energy management system 130 fromvarious electronic devices associated with each of the residences150A-150N. The information may then be presented in real-time to theutility provider via the utility portal and, in some embodiments, theutility provider computing system 120 may be used to interact with thedata.

In the particular input/output element 2900 depicted in FIG. 29A, theutility portal includes a summary of information regarding a particularDR event. The summary includes the number of energy consumers that areenrolled to participate in a particular DR program 2902, informationregarding an upcoming DR event 2904, a refresh link 2906 that uponselection causes the displayed information to be refreshed (recognizingthat the information can be refreshed periodically, e.g., every minute,every 30 minutes, every 60 minutes, etc. without user input), an exportlink 2908 that upon selection exports the displayed information in oneor more of a variety of file formats, and a utility account identifier1910 that uniquely identifies an account associated with the utilityprovider.

The information regarding an upcoming DR event 2904 may include avariety of information regarding an upcoming DR event. For example, suchinformation may include the date of the DR event 2912, the time of theDR event 2914, the desired amount of energy shifting 2914, the number ofparticipants for the DR event 2918, etc. Much of this information, suchas the date, time, and desired energy shifting, may be acquired from theDR event profile by the energy management system 130. Other information,such as the number of participants, may be generated by the energymanagement system (e.g., as a result of the operations described withreference to FIG. 8) and communicated to the utility provider computingsystem 120.

The utility provider computing system 120 may be used to interact withthe various data presented by the energy management system 130. Forexample, upon selecting the number of enrolled energy consumers 2902,the utility portal may present additional information regarding all ofthe enrolled consumers. Similarly, upon selecting the number ofparticipants, the utility portal may present additional informationregarding the energy consumers that have indicated they will participate(or are currently participating) in the upcoming DR event.

In some embodiments, the utility portal may include prior DR eventinformation 2920. The prior DR event information may identify past DRevents and include selectable links to those DR events. Upon receiving aselection of one of those links, the utility portal may provide variousinformation regarding the past DR event similar to that described withreference to FIGS. 29A and 29B.

FIG. 29B illustrates an I/O element 2950 including a utility portalproviding detailed energy consumer information according to anembodiment. Such detailed information may be provided in a number offashions, for example in response to a user of the utility providercomputing system 120 selecting the number of enrolled energy consumers2902 or the number of participants 2918 described with reference to FIG.29A. In one particular embodiment, in response to the number of enrolledenergy consumers 2902 being selected, a list of all enrolled energyconsumers and their devices used for managing energy consumption may begenerated. Similarly, in response to the number of participants in a DRevent 2918 being selected, a list of only the energy consumersparticipating in a particular DR event may be generated.

The I/O element 2950 in this particular example includes a useridentifier 2952 that identifies an energy consumer, a device identifier2954 that uniquely identifies an electronic device (e.g., thermostat202) associated with the energy consumer and is used for energymanagement, a connection status 2956 indicating whether the electronicdevice is connected to the energy management system 130 (e.g., remoteserver 264), qualification information 2958 indicating whether thedevice qualifies to participate in a DR event, notification information2960 indicating whether the device received a DR event notification, DRexecution information 2962 indicating whether the device is currentlyperforming energy management in accordance with a DR event (e.g.,currently implementing a DR implementation profile), an estimate oftotal energy reduction 2964 indicating an estimate of the total energyreduction during the DR event period (or energy shifting from the DRevent period to other time periods) attributed to the device, anestimate of the current energy reduction 2966 indicating an estimate ofthe amount of energy reduction the device was expected to achieve fromthe beginning of the DR event period up until a particular time duringthe DR event in accordance with its DR implementation profile, and anactual current energy reduction 2968 indicating the actual amount ofenergy reduction achieved by the device from the beginning of the DRevent period up until the particular time during the DR event.

In addition to providing a variety of information on a per-device basis,aggregated values may also be generated and provided to the utilityportal. For example, the utility portal may also include an estimate ofthe aggregate current energy reduction 2970 that indicates the totalamount of energy reduction across all participating devices expected tobe achieved from the beginning of the DR event up until a particulartime during the DR event, an actual aggregate current energy reduction2972 that indicates the total amount of energy reduction across allparticipating devices actually achieved from the beginning of the DRevent up until the particular time during the DR event, the percentageof devices currently executing the DR event 2974, and the amount of timeremaining in in the DR event 2976.

It should be recognized that much of the aforementioned information maybe generated by the energy management system 130 in accordance with manyof the previously described processes. For example, the estimated totalenergy reductions 2964 may be calculated in accordance with operation1408, while the estimated current energy reduction 2966, estimatedaggregate current energy reduction 2970, actual current energy reduction2968, and actual aggregate current energy reduction 2972 may becalculated in accordance with operations 1504 and 1510.

Moreover, it should be appreciated that the specific I/O elementsillustrated in FIGS. 29A and 29B describe particular I/O elementsaccording to certain embodiments. The various information and selectableelements may not necessarily be displayed at different times, but rathersome messages could be presented simultaneously on the same display;similarly, the information and selectable elements may not necessarilybe displayed simultaneously, but could be displayed at different times.Some messages could be communicated using other communicationmechanisms, and responses could similarly be received using othercommunication mechanisms. For example, audible, touch, or otherinput/output mechanisms could be used to communicate the information tothe utility provider and allow the utility provider to interact with theinformation. Further, it should be recognized that additional oralternative information could be presented, and all of the informationillustrated in FIGS. 25A through 25F need not be presented. For example,in some embodiments, the user identifier 2952 and/or device identifier2954 can be selected to generate and display additional informationregarding the energy consumer, such as their full name, address, billinginformation, structure information (type of structure, volume ofstructure, thermal retention characteristics of structure,cooling/heating capacity of structure, etc.), or otheruser/account/device-related information. For another example, in someembodiments, after a DR event the utility portal may generate anddisplay information identifying which devices completed theirparticipation in the DR event, which devices did not even start theirparticipation in the DR event, which devices canceled or altered theirparticipation level during the DR event, and when such changes were madeand the impact of such changes (e.g., increased energy shifting,decreasing energy shifting, opt-out). One of ordinary skill in the artwould recognize and appreciate many variations, modifications, andalternatives.

In some instances energy consumers may attempt to obviate theapplication of a DR implementation profile while still enjoying rewardsassociated with participation in a DR event. For example, an energyconsumer may prevent their thermostat 202 from controlling their HVAC203, but still allow the thermostat 202 to download and implement a DRimplementation profile for a DR event. In some cases, the thermostat 202may execute the DR implementation profile for the entire duration of theDR event, and the energy consumer may get rewarded for theirparticipation in the DR event, although the user has only presented theappearance of participating in the DR event. Instead of actuallyshifting their energy consumption, the energy consumer may manuallycontrol their HVAC resulting in no energy shifting or less energyshifting than that reported by the thermostat. In some embodiments,techniques for determining whether an energy consumer is or hasattempted to obviate DR programming (i.e., application of a DRimplementation profile) are disclosed. In making such a determination,the status of an HVAC wire connection to an electronic device (e.g.,thermostat 202) can be monitored to see whether the HVAC has beendisconnected. If so, this may indicate tampering. In some embodiments,one or more additional factors may also be taken into considerationprior to making a definitive determination of tampering, such as whetherthe energy consumer is enrolled in a DR program, participating in a DRevent, etc.

FIG. 30A illustrates a process 3000 for determining whether an energyconsumer has complied with participation in a DR event according to anembodiment. To facilitate understanding, the process 3000 is describedwith reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2, although it should be understoodthat embodiments of the process 3000 are not limited to the exemplarysystems and apparatus described with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2.

In operation 3002, an HVAC wire connection established during a deviceinstall is identified. The device may be any device connected to an HVACor other environmental management system, such as thermostat 202 beingconnected to HVAC 203. The thermostat 202 may generally be connected tothe HVAC 203 so as to control the operation of HVAC 203. In oneparticular embodiment and with reference to FIG. 3C, various electricwires from the HVAC 203 for controlling the HVAC 203 may be connected tothe thermostat 203, such as a heating call wire W1, a cooling call wireY1, etc. One particular technique for connecting an HVAC to a thermostatis described in commonly assigned U.S. Ser. No. 13/034,674, supra.Accordingly, in one embodiment, processor 330 (or other processingcircuitry/software associated with device 300) may identify one or moreconnections to an HVAC via the wire connectors 338.

In operation 3004, the HVAC wire connection is monitored. For example,the wire connectors 338 may be monitored for wire connections anddisconnections. In one particular embodiment, the port sensing circuit342 may include a two-position switch that is closed to short theelectrical leads 344 together when no wire has been inserted into theassociated wire connector 338, and the two-position switch may bemechanically urged into an open position to electrically segregate theelectrical leads 344 when a wire is inserted into the associated wireconnector 338. Accordingly, the two-position switch may be monitored todetermine whether a wire has been connected or disconnected to/from aparticular wire connector 338.

In operation 3006 it is determined whether an HVAC wire connection hasbeen tampered with. In some embodiments, it may be determined whether anHVAC wire connection has been removed. For example, as a result ofmonitoring the two-position switch in operation 3004, it may bedetermined whether a wire connected to an HVAC via a wire connector 338is removed from the wire connector 338. If it is determined that an HVACwire connection has not been tampered with, then processing may continueto operation 3008 where it is determined that the device is compliant.Otherwise, processing may continue to operation 3010.

In operation 3010 it is determined whether the tampering is indicativeof an attempt to obviate DR programming. In some embodiments it may bedetermined that the mere disconnect of one or more wires is indicativeof tampering. In some cases, a particular wire (e.g., cooling call wireY1) must be removed to indicate tampering. In other embodiments, one ormore additional factors may be taken into consideration in determiningwhether the tampering is indicative of an attempt to obviate the DRprogramming. A number of such factors are further described withreference to FIG. 30B. If it is determined that the tampering is notindicative of an attempt to obviate DR programming, then processing mayreturn to operation 3008 where it is determined that the device iscompliant. Otherwise, processing may continue to operation 3012 where itis determined that the device is compliant.

As mentioned, FIG. 30B illustrates a process 3050 for determiningwhether tampering of an HVAC wire is indicative of an attempt to obviateDR programming according to an embodiment. In operation 3052, it isdetermined whether the energy consumer associated with the device (e.g.,paired with the device) is enrolled in a DR program. If so, then thismay weigh against a determination of compliance as the energy consumermay have a motive to obviate the DR programming. In operation 3054, itis determined whether the energy consumer associated with the device isparticipating in a DR event. If so, then this may weigh against adetermination of compliance as the energy consumer may have a motive toobviate the DR programming. In operation 3056 it is determined whetherthe tampering occurred after a DR event notification. If so, then thismay weigh against a determination of compliance as the energy consumermay have notice of an upcoming DR event and thus a motive to obviate theupcoming DR programming. In operation 3058 it is determined whetherthere has been a change in HVAC. For example, it may be determinedwhether a new HVAC has been installed, or the device has been installedat a different HVAC. If so, then this may weigh in favor of adetermination of compliance as there may be justified reason for theappearance of tampering. In operation 3060 it is determined whetherthere is change in device ownership. For example, it may be determinedwhether a user account paired with a device becomes unpaired withdevice, and/or whether a new user account is paired with the device. Ifso, then this may weigh in favor of a determination of compliance asthere may be justified reason for the appearance of tampering. Inoperation 3062 it is determined whether the environmental conditions inthe structure (e.g., temperature, humidity, etc.) vary during a DR eventas expected. For example, based on the DR implementation profile,structural characteristics (i.e., thermal retention characteristics),HVAC capacity, and outside weather, changes to the environmentalconditions inside of the structure in response to programmedenvironmental (temperature/humidity) changes by the HVAC may beestimated. Environmental sensors in the structure may be used todetermine whether the actual environmental conditions inside of thestructure change as estimated. If so, then this may weigh in favor of adetermination of compliance since the environmental conditions inside ofthe structure are changing as they should if the HVAC were beingcontrolled as expected. In operation 3064 it is determined whether otherfactors suggest non-compliance. This may be any one or more of a varietyof factors, such as whether a real-time occupancy sensor indicates thestructure is occupied, whether the energy consumer changed the DRevent-modified setpoints to perform less aggressive energy shiftingimmediately prior to the detected tampering, or changed the setpoints tobe perform much more aggressive energy shifting immediately afterdetecting the tampering, etc.

It should be recognized that although the process described withreference to FIG. 30A includes making definitive determinations ofcompliance or non-compliance, in some embodiments a probability ofcompliance ranging from non-complaint (e.g., 0%) to full compliance(100%) may be determined, where each of the factors may impact either aprobabilistic findings of non-compliance or compliance. The factors maybe equally or non-equally weighted. Further, it should be appreciatedthat the specific operations illustrated in FIGS. 30A and 30B provide aparticular process for determining whether an energy consumer hascomplied with participation in a DR event according to an embodiment.The various operations described with reference to FIGS. 30A and 30B maybe implemented at and performed by one or more of a variety ofelectronic devices or components described herein. For example, they maybe implemented at and performed by a thermostat 202, an access device266, or other electronic device described in accordance with the smarthome environment 200, or one or more electronic components at energymanagement system 130, utility provider computing system 120, or otherentity of system 100. Other sequences of operations may also beperformed according to alternative embodiments. For example, alternativeembodiments of the present invention may perform the operations outlinedabove in a different order. Moreover, the individual operationsillustrated in FIGS. 30A and 30B may include multiple sub-operationsthat may be performed in various sequences as appropriate to theindividual operations. Furthermore, additional operations may be addedor existing operations removed depending on the particular applications.One of ordinary skill in the art would recognize and appreciate manyvariations, modifications, and alternatives.

As described with reference to FIG. 1, the energy management system 130may manage the energy consumption for a number of different residences150A-150N. In managing that energy consumption, the energy managementsystem 130 may predict the likely amount of an energy reduction over agiven period of time resulting from the energy management. While theenergy management system 130 itself does not necessarily generateenergy, the energy manager associated with the energy management system130 may enter into a variety of different agreements with the utilityprovider associated with the utility provider computing system 120 inorder to sell the reductions in energy. FIGS. 31A and 31B illustratevarious processes by which the energy management system 130 and utilityprovider computing system 120 may manage energy.

Specifically, FIG. 31A illustrates a process 3100 for an energymanagement system (e.g., energy management system 130) to manage energyin accordance with a bilateral contract between an energy managerassociated with the energy management system and a utility providerassociated with a utility provider computing system (e.g., utilityprovider computing system 130) according to an embodiment. To facilitateunderstanding, the process 3100 is described with reference to FIG. 1and FIG. 2, although it should be understood that embodiments of theprocess 3100 are not limited to the exemplary systems and apparatusdescribed with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2.

In operation 3102 the energy management provider enters into a contractwith the utility provider to remove a certain amount of load from a gridfor one or more demand-response events. For example, the utilityprovider associated with utility provider computing system 120 and theenergy manager associated with energy management system 130 may enterinto a contract for energy management system 130 to reduce the energyconsumption on power distribution network 160 by a certain number of kWhover a particular duration (i.e., DR event period).

In operation 3104, the energy management system identifies energyconsumers on the grid who, in aggregate, are likely to remove the agreedupon amount of load from the grid. For example, energy management system130 may identify some of residences 150A-150N to participate in a DRprogram and DR event who, in the aggregate, are likely to reduce theirenergy consumption on the power distribution network 160 the contractednumber of kWh over the DR event period.

In operation 3106 a demand-response event begins. For example, thebeginning of a DR event period defined by a DR event profile may bereached. It should be recognized that the beginning of the DR eventperiod may include the beginning of a pre-event energy managementperiod.

In operation 3108 the energy management provider manages the energyconsumers on the grid to remove the agreed upon amount of load. Forexample, the energy management system 130 may apply DR implementationprofiles for the residences 150A-150N associated with the participatingenergy consumers. The DR implementation profiles may be generated tocause the participating energy consumers to, in the aggregate, reducetheir energy consumption by the amount agreed upon and defined in thecontract described with reference to operation 3102.

In operation 3110 the demand-response event ends. For example, the endof a DR event period defined by a DR event profile may be reached. Itshould be recognized that the end of the DR event period may include theend of a post-event energy management period.

In operation 3112 the energy management provider determines the energyreduction contributed by each participating energy consumer. Forexample, for each residence 150A-150N associated with an energy consumerthat at least partially participated in the DR event, the energymanagement provider may determine the amount of energy reduced at thatresidence during the DR event period as compared to what the energyconsumer would have consumed but-for its participation in the DR event.

In operation 3114 it is determined, for each energy consumer, whetherthe actual energy reduction is greater than some threshold amount. Thethreshold amount may be zero or some energy value greater than zero. Ifit is determined that the actual amount of energy reduction does notexceed the threshold, then processing may continue to operation 3116where it is determined that no reward is distributed to the energyconsumer. In contrast, if it is determined that the actual amount ofenergy reduction exceeds the threshold, then processing may continue tooperation 3118 where an award is determined and distributed to theenergy consumer. The award may be relative the amount of energyreduction achieved by the energy consumer, such that if the energyconsumed reduces a greater amount of energy compared to another consumerthey will be awarded a greater reward computer to the other consumer. Inother embodiments, all energy consumers that meet some threshold ofenergy reduction may receive the same reward.

FIG. 31B illustrates a process 3150 for an energy management system(e.g., energy management system 130) to manage energy in accordance witha market-based sale of energy reduction according to an embodiment. Tofacilitate understanding, the process 3150 is described with referenceto FIG. 1 and FIG. 2, although it should be understood that embodimentsof the process 3150 are not limited to the exemplary systems andapparatus described with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG. 2.

In operation 3152 the energy management system 130 determines how muchenergy reduction for a grid it may achieve during a particular timeinterval. For example, the energy management system 130 may determinehow much energy consumption can be reduced by one or more energyconsumers associated with structures 150A-150N.

In operation 3154 the energy management provider offers the energyreduction on an option market. The energy management provider may offerthe energy reduction as an amount of energy reduction (e.g., number ofkWh) that may be achieved on a particular grid (e.g., power distributionnetwork 160) during a particular time interval (e.g., a particular dateand time interval). In some cases the offered energy reduction may alsobe accompanied by a probability of the reduction being achieved (e.g.,there is a 95% probability that 50 kWh of energy can be reduced on thegrid over the period from 2 pm-6 pm on a particular day)

In operation 3156 one or more third party entities accept the offeredenergy reduction. The entity may be any one or more of a variety ofentities, such as a utility provider associated with the utilityprovider computing system 120, one or more power operators associatedwith electrical power generators 110A-110N, etc. As a result of thethird party entity accepting the offer, the third party entity and theenergy management provider may enter into a contract for the energymanagement provider to reduce the amount of energy consumption consumedat the residences 150A-150N similar to that described in operation 3102.Further, once the contract has been entered into, a DR event may begin,the energy management system 130 may manage energy, and then rewards maybe distributed, as described in operations 3158-3170, which are similarto operations 3106-3118, so further description is omitted.

It should be recognized that one or more entities may determine andprovide rewards to the energy consumers. For example, the energymanagement system 130 may determine and provide rewards, and/or theutility provider computing system 120 may determine and provide rewards.In some cases, the rewards may be monetary. For example, the energymanagement system 130 may provide credits towards energy bills that aresent to the energy consumers for the energy consumption. In other casesthe rewards may be points. For example, the energy management system 130may award points which may subsequently be traded for goods or services.

In at least one embodiments, points may be used as a normalizer. Forexample, energy consumers may attempt to obviate DR programming byputting their scheduled setpoints at points that are less energyefficient (e.g., lower temperatures on hot days) than what the energyconsumer is actually comfortable at. A resulting DR implementationprofile, looking only at the energy consumer's scheduled setpoints,presumes that the setpoints are set at temperatures the energy consumerdeems comfortable, and adjusts the setpoints from those temperatures.Accordingly, the energy consumer ends up being compensated for theresulting discomfort of setpoints placed at temperatures higher than maybe comfortable for the DR event period. However, if the energy consumersets their scheduled setpoints to temperatures below what they'reactually comfortable at, the DR implementation profile may inadvertentlyset their DR event-modified setpoints to temperatures that the energyconsumer is actually comfortable at.

To obviate such behavior, an ‘average’ setpoint temperature may bedetermined. This may be determined using the setpoint temperatures ofsimilarly situated energy consumers (e.g., other energy consumers havingstructures with similar thermal retention characteristics, similarcooling capacities, similar outside weather patterns, similar occupancyprofiles, etc.). The average setpoint temperature may be determinedusing a number of similarly situated energy consumers so that thesetpoint temperatures that likely correspond to what most people deem‘comfortable’ may be determined. In the event an energy consumer setstheir scheduled setpoints to consume more energy than the averagesetpoints (e.g., in hot weather, they may be set lower than average), itmay be deemed that the energy consumer is possibly a ‘bad actor’ andthus entitled to fewer points upon successful completion of a DR eventthan an energy consumer that sets their scheduled setpoints to consumethe same energy or less energy than the average setpoints. Accordingly,points may be used as a way to normalize the behavior of energyconsumers. Other techniques for obviating such behavior may also oralternatively be implemented. For example, a history of the user'sscheduled setpoints may be compared to altered setpoints, and if thealtered setpoints differ significantly (e.g., more than a number ofdegrees) it may be deemed that the energy consumer is possibly a ‘badactor’.

In at least one embodiment, points may be used as incentive to not onlyincentivize positive individual behavior, but also or alternatively toincentivize positive group behavior. For example, energy consumers maybe associated into groups. The groups may be, e.g., friends, colleagues,geographically defined (within a same ZIP code), structurally defined(all tenants of an apartment complex), etc. Groups may be defined by theenergy consumer (e.g., one energy consumer can associate themselves withanother energy consumer), or may be defined by a third party (e.g., theenergy management system 130 may define a group including specifiedenergy consumers). If a group then achieves some particular goal, suchas reducing their aggregate energy consumption for a particular DR eventby a certain amount, they may receive an additional reward that is inaddition to what they receive for their individual contributions to theenergy reduction.

In some cases, points do not need to necessarily be awarded only basedon an amount of energy consumption reduction. Rather, points (or othergoods or services of value) may be awarded based on an energy consumer'sgood behavior. For example, points may be awarded if users participatein one or more DR events, if they successfully participate in at least acertain percentage of DR events in a program, if they maintain atemperature at some average temperature for a particular time period(where the average may be defined by similarly situated energyconsumers), if they consume less than some threshold amount of energyover the course of a DR event (where the threshold may be set as anaverage amount based on similarly situated consumers, based on utilitycapacity, etc.), or for other positive behavior.

In some embodiments, points may be used as a currency. For example,points may be traded for goods or services. In at least one case, pointsmay be used to enter into a sweepstakes. For example, the energymanagement provider may hold a sweepstakes for certain goods orservices, and a certain number of points may be traded by an energyconsumer to the energy management provider for one or more entries intothe sweepstakes. Further, points may also be used to grant a ranking orstatus. For example, the a particular status or level may be associatedwith different aggregate numbers of points, where increased levelsidentify an increased status, but are only achieved after certainthreshold(s) of points have been accumulated.

In at least one embodiment, various models for incentivizingparticipation in a DR program or DR event may be used. These mayinclude, e.g., a punishment model, a reward model, and a subscriptionmodel. In a punishment model an energy consumer may receive a highreward for successfully completing a DR event, and being given a limitednumber of opt-outs. After they expend those limited opt-outs, however,they get punished (e.g., reward reductions, higher utility fees, etc.)for each additional opt-out. In a reward model, the energy consumer mayreceive a medium-size reward for each DR event they successfullycomplete. In this case, there would be no punishment for opting-out, butthey would also not receive high rewards for each successful DR event.In a subscription model the customer may receive a constant, low, periodreward for them to enroll in the DR program. The customers may notparticipate in all of the DR events, or may not participate in any DRevent. However, there is no monitoring, no rewards, and no punishment.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIGS. 31A and 31B provide particular processes for an energy managementsystem to manage energy in accordance with different types of contracts.The various operations described with reference to FIGS. 31A and 31B maybe implemented at and performed by one or more of a variety ofelectronic devices or components described herein. For example, they maybe implemented at and performed by the energy management system 130, theutility provider computing system 120, one or more residences 150A-150N,etc. Other sequences of operations may also be performed according toalternative embodiments. For example, alternative embodiments of thepresent invention may perform the operations outlined above in adifferent order. Moreover, the individual operations illustrated inFIGS. 31A and 31B may include multiple sub-operations that may beperformed in various sequences as appropriate to the individualoperations. Furthermore, additional operations may be added or existingoperations removed depending on the particular applications. One ofordinary skill in the art would recognize and appreciate manyvariations, modifications, and alternatives.

As described with reference to FIG. 2, a number of intelligent,network-connected devices (e.g., thermostat 202) may be incorporated ina smart-home environment 200 and in communication with an energymanagement system 130 (e.g., remote server 264) that is disposed as anintermediary between the smart home environment 200 and a utilityprovider associated with utility provider computing system 120.Generally speaking, a typical smart home will usually have at least onehigh-speed broadband connection to the outside world, such as may beprovided by an Internet Service Provider (ISP), and such as indicated bythe link shown in FIG. 2, supra, between wireless router 260 and network262 (e.g., the Internet). Generally speaking, these high-speed broadbandconnections to the outside world will be characterized by very highspeeds, low network latencies, and generally high reliability,especially in view of growing consumer dependence on high-speedbroadband for home entertainment and other data communications needs. Insome embodiments the smart home environment 200 includes a smart meter218. The smart meter 218 monitors some or all energy (electricity, gas,etc.) consumed by the devices in and around the structure 250, and mayprovide such raw data to the utility provider using some type of datacommunications link. However, likely due in significant part to therelatively uneven historical development and adoption patterns of smartmeter infrastructures, the data communications link between the smartmeter 218 and utility provider (which can take various forms based ontelephone lines, special-purpose wireless metropolitan-area networks,powerline communications, etc.) can sometimes be characterized by slowdata rates, long latencies, and uneven reliability. Thus, for example,some wireless implementations known in the art tend to be problematic inthat the smart meter 218 provides updates to the utility provider onlyafter long time intervals. Further yet, some wireless implementationsknown in the art also tend to be problematic in that they raise healthconcerns due to the strong RF fields propagated by the smart meter 218in order to reach a receiving station. Provided according to one or moreembodiments herein is a method for providing improved datacommunications between the smart meter 218 and the associated utilityprovider by forming an alternative data communication channel betweenthe smart meter 218 and one or more of the intelligent,network-connected devices inside the smart home (e.g., thermostat 202),wherein the smart-home device then transmits the raw data to the utilityprovider through the smart home's high-speed broadband connection. Insome embodiments, the alternative data communication channel can beprovided by implementing a low-power RF connection (for example, usingZigBee, 6LowPAN, WiFi, NFC, etc.) between the smart meter 218 and one ormore electronic devices of the smart home environment 200 (e.g.,thermostat 202). In other embodiments, wired communications paths can beused. In such a case, real-time status updates may advantageously becommunicated to the utility provider computing system 120 from thesmarter meter 218 via another electronic device in the smart homeenvironment 200 (e.g., thermostat 202), router 260, network 262, andremote server 264/energy management system 130.

FIG. 32 illustrates a process 3200 for passing and supplementinginformation from an energy consumption meter to a utility providercomputing system via an energy management system according to anembodiment. For example, information generated by and stored at thesmart meter 218 may be read by thermostat 202, communicated fromthermostat 202 to energy management system 130, and communicated fromenergy management system 130 to utility provider computing system 120.

In operation 3202 a wireless connection is established with the energymeter that measures aggregate energy consumption for a structure. Forexample, a wireless connection may be established between thermostat 202and smart meter 218.

In operation 3204 energy-related information is received from the energymeter via the wireless connection. For example, information indicatingthe aggregate energy consumption for any given period of time at thestructure may be communicated from the smart meter 218 to the thermostat202.

In operation 3206 value-added data is appended to the energy-relatedinformation. The energy management system monitors and generates avariety of energy-related information such as a current insidetemperature or humidity of the structure, a thermal retentioncharacteristic of the structure, an HVAC capacity of an HVAC associatedwith the structure, an estimated or actual energy reduction associatedwith the structure before, during, or after a DR event, whether astructure is enrolled in a DR program or volunteered to participate in aDR event, an amenability of the residents of the structure to loadshifting, a baseline, etc. Any or all of this information may beappended to the basic information generated by the smart meter 218(i.e., aggregate energy consumption). This additional information may beused by the utility provider computing system to perform a variety offunctions, such as deciding whether to issue a DR event, the scope of DRevent, the magnitude of a DR event, etc. Accordingly, in operation 3206,such information may be added (either at the structure or at the energymanagement system 130) to the energy-related information acquired fromthe smart meter 218.

In operation 3208 a utility provider that manages the supply of energyto the structure is identified. For example, the energy managementsystem 130 may determine that the utility provider computing system 120provides power to the smart home environment 200 (i.e., a particularresidence 150A-150N over the power distribution network 160. In oneembodiment, the identity of the utility provider may be included in theinformation communicated from the smart meter 218.

In operation 3210 the energy-related information and the appendedvalue-added data is communicated to the utility provider. For example,the energy management system 130, after appending the value-added datato the information received from smart meter 218, may communicated bothsets of information to the utility provider 120. In some embodiments,such information may be communicated in real-time, or in very shortintervals (e.g., every 30 seconds), so as to provide the utilityprovider with a real-time perception of the energy consumptioncharacteristics of the smart home environment 200.

It should be appreciated that the specific operations illustrated inFIG. 32 provide a particular process for passing and supplementinginformation from an energy consumption meter to a utility providercomputing system via an energy management system according to anembodiment. The various operations described with reference to FIG. 32may be implemented at and performed by one or more of a variety ofelectronic devices or components described herein.

For example, they may be implemented at and performed by the energymanagement system 130, one or more residences 150A-150N, etc. Othersequences of operations may also be performed according to alternativeembodiments. For example, alternative embodiments of the presentinvention may perform the operations outlined above in a differentorder. Moreover, the individual operations illustrated in FIG. 32 mayinclude multiple sub-operations that may be performed in varioussequences as appropriate to the individual operations. Furthermore,additional operations may be added or existing operations removeddepending on the particular applications. One of ordinary skill in theart would recognize and appreciate many variations, modifications, andalternatives.

Specific details are given in the above description to provide athorough understanding of the embodiments. However, it is understoodthat the embodiments may be practiced without these specific details.For example, circuits may be shown in block diagrams in order not toobscure the embodiments in unnecessary detail. In other instances,well-known circuits, processes, algorithms, structures, and techniquesmay be shown without unnecessary detail in order to avoid obscuring theembodiments. Further, embodiments may include some or all of thesystems, methods, apparatus, etc. described in U.S. application Ser. No.13/632,118, filed Sep. 30, 2012, U.S. application Ser. No. 13/632,093,filed Sep. 30, 2012, U.S. application Ser. No. 13/632,028, filed Sep.30, 2012, U.S. application Ser. No. 13/632,041, filed Sep. 30, 2012,U.S. application Ser. No. 13/632,070, filed Sep. 30, 2012, U.S.Provisional Application No. 61/704,437, filed Sep. 21, 2012, PCTApplication No. PCT/US12/20026, filed Jan. 3, 2012, and PCT ApplicationNo. PCT/US12/00007, filed Jan. 3, 2012, all of which are incorporated byreference herein in their entirety for all purposes.

Implementation of the techniques, blocks, steps and means describedabove may be done in various ways. For example, these techniques,blocks, steps and means may be implemented in hardware, software, or acombination thereof. For a hardware implementation, the processing unitsmay be implemented within one or more application specific integratedcircuits (ASICs), digital signal processors (DSPs), digital signalprocessing devices (DSPDs), programmable logic devices (PLDs), fieldprogrammable gate arrays (FPGAs), processors, controllers,micro-controllers, microprocessors, other electronic units designed toperform the functions described above, and/or a combination thereof.

Also, it is noted that the embodiments may be described as a processwhich is depicted as a flowchart, a flow diagram, a data flow diagram, astructure diagram, or a block diagram. Although a flowchart may describethe operations as a sequential process, many of the operations can beperformed in parallel or concurrently. In addition, the order of theoperations may be re-arranged. A process is terminated when itsoperations are completed, but could have additional steps not includedin the figure. A process may correspond to a method, a function, aprocedure, a subroutine, a subprogram, etc. When a process correspondsto a function, its termination corresponds to a return of the functionto the calling function or the main function.

Furthermore, embodiments may be implemented by hardware, software,scripting languages, firmware, middleware, microcode, hardwaredescription languages, and/or any combination thereof. When implementedin software, firmware, middleware, scripting language, and/or microcode,the program code or code segments to perform the necessary tasks may bestored in a machine readable medium such as a storage medium. A codesegment or machine-executable instruction may represent a procedure, afunction, a subprogram, a program, a routine, a subroutine, a module, asoftware package, a script, a class, or any combination of instructions,data structures, and/or program statements. A code segment may becoupled to another code segment or a hardware circuit by passing and/orreceiving information, data, arguments, parameters, and/or memorycontents. Information, arguments, parameters, data, etc. may be passed,forwarded, or transmitted via any suitable means including memorysharing, message passing, token passing, network transmission, etc.

While the principles of the disclosure have been described above inconnection with specific apparatuses and methods, it is to be clearlyunderstood that this description is made only by way of example and notas limitation on the scope of the present teachings.

What is claimed is:
 1. A method for carrying out a demand response event via an intelligent, network-connected thermostat in a structure, comprising: controlling the operation of a cooling system associated with the structure for a characterization period according to an HVAC schedule for the thermostat; receiving, for the characterization period, information for determining a plurality of physical parameters associated with the structure that are at least partially determinative of a suitability of the structure for participation in a demand response event, wherein said plurality of physical parameters includes: a cooling capacity of the cooling system relative to a volume of the structure to be cooled by the cooling system; and a thermal retention characteristic of the structure; receiving at least one user input characterizing a user amenability to demand response load shifting; receiving a notification of a demand response event interval defined by the demand response event; receiving a weather forecast indicating a predicted temperature at the location of the structure for the duration of the demand response interval; determining an occupancy probability profile for the demand response event interval; jointly processing information derived from said HVAC schedule, said cooling capacity of the cooling system, said thermal retention characteristic, said user amenability to demand response load shifting, said weather forecast, and said occupancy probability profile to (a) determine whether said structure is qualified to participate in said demand response event, and (b) determine, if said structure is qualified to so participate, a demand response event implementation profile associated with participation in the demand response event; and controlling, in the event that said structure is determined to be qualified to participate in said demand response event, the cooling system according to said demand response event implementation profile during said demand response event interval.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein said controlling the operation of the cooling system according to said HVAC schedule, said receiving at least one user input characterizing the user amenability, said receiving the demand response event interval, said receiving the weather forecast, said jointly processing information, and said controlling the cooling system according to said demand response event implementation profile are carried out by said intelligent, network-connected thermostat.
 3. The method of claim 1, wherein said demand response event implementation profile includes one or more of: a direct load control profile, a precooling profile, a temperature setback profile, and a temperature snapback profile.
 4. The method of claim 3, wherein said demand response event implementation profile includes the precooling profile when the predicted temperature at the location of the structure for the duration of the demand response interval is mild to moderate and the thermal retention characteristic of the structure indicates the structure is medium to well-sealed.
 5. The method of claim 3, wherein said demand response event implementation profile includes the temperature setback profile when: the predicted temperature at the location of the structure for the duration of the demand response interval is mild to moderate, the cooling capacity of the cooling system relative to the volume of the structure is medium to oversized, the thermal retention characteristic of the structure indicates the structure is medium to well-sealed, and the weather forecast indicates a predicted humidity at the location of the structure for the duration of the demand response interval as being low to moderate.
 6. The method of claim 3, wherein said demand response event implementation profile includes the direct load control profile when: the predicted temperature at the location of the structure for the duration of the demand response interval is hot, the cooling capacity of the cooling system relative to the volume of the structure to be cooled is undersized, or the weather forecast indicates a predicted humidity at the location of the structure for the duration of the demand response interval as being high.
 7. The method of claim 3, wherein said demand response event implementation profile includes the temperature snapback profile when said notification of the demand response event indicates that an expected or actual aggregate energy load on an electrical grid servicing the structure may be excessive during a post-event interval immediately subsequent to said demand response event interval.
 8. The method of claim 1, wherein the at least one user input characterizing the user amenability to demand response load shifting is received at a user interface associated with said network-connected thermostat in the form of a user selection of an operating point along a user interface slider tool that ranges from a maximum load shifting setting at one end to a maximum comfort setting at the other end.
 9. The method of claim 1, further comprising: receiving, at a user interface associated with said network-connected thermostat, at least one user input during said demand response event interval indicative of a user choice to deviate from a currently active setpoint temperature indicated by said demand response event implementation profile; computing a predicted change in achieved load shifting that would occur if said choice to deviate is implemented; displaying at said user interface information associated with said predicted change in achieved load shifting to the user; requesting a confirmation from said user at said user interface of said user choice to deviate; and operating according to said user choice to deviate upon receiving a positive confirmation from the user at said user interface.
 10. The method of claim 9, wherein said displaying information associated with said predicted change in achieved load shifting includes displaying warning information indicative of a disqualification condition related to a demand response participation benefit.
 11. A method for encouraging an energy consumer associated with a structure to participate in a demand response event, comprising: one or more computer processors accessing a pre-existing HVAC schedule indicating a plurality of setpoint temperatures, the pre-existing HVAC schedule being operative to facilitate control of an HVAC system associated with the structure in accordance with the setpoint temperatures; one or more computer processors determining a demand-response implementation profile associated with a demand response event period defined by the demand response event, the demand-response implementation profile comprising a modified HVAC schedule incorporating one or more changes to the setpoint temperatures indicated by the pre-existing HVAC schedule over the demand response event period; one or more computer processors determining at least one physical parameter associated with the structure that is at least partially determinative of an effectiveness of the structure in supporting a shift of energy consumption from one time interval to another time interval; one or more computer processors calculating one or more metrics indicative of an amount of energy likely to be shifted from the demand response event period to another time period based on the pre-existing HVAC schedule, the demand-response implementation profile, and the at least one physical parameter associated with the structure; and causing the one or more metrics to be communicated to the energy consumer.
 12. The method of claim 11, wherein determining the demand-response implementation profile includes: identifying one or more basis characteristics including: an occupancy probability profile indicating a probability that the structure will be occupied at each of one or more times during the demand response event period; an amenability of the energy consumer to load shifting during the demand response event period; and a prediction of the weather covering the vicinity of the structure during the demand response event period; and determining one or more of a pre-event energy management profile, a demand-response event energy management profile, and a post-event energy management profile based on at least one of the one or more basis characteristics.
 13. The method of claim 11 wherein the at least one physical parameter associated with the structure includes: a cooling capacity of the HVAC system relative to a volume of the structure to be thermally managed by the HVAC system; and a thermal retention characteristic of the structure.
 14. The method of claim 11 wherein calculating one or more metrics indicative of an amount of energy likely to be shifted includes: determining a first amount of energy likely to be consumed by the HVAC system if the HVAC system were controlled in accordance with the pre-existing HVAC schedule over the demand response event period; determining a second amount of energy likely to be consumed by the HVAC system if the HVAC system were controlled in accordance with the demand-response implementation profile over the demand response event period; and calculating a difference between the first amount of energy and the second amount of energy.
 15. The method of claim 11 wherein calculating one or more metrics indicative of an amount of energy likely to be shifted includes: determining the amount of energy likely to be shifted from the demand response event period to another time period; and multiplying the amount of energy likely to be shifted with a likely per-amount monetary value of energy over the course of the demand response event period.
 16. The method of claim 15, wherein said determining the likely per-amount monetary value of energy over the course of the demand response event period comprises one or more of: receiving information indicating the per-amount monetary value of energy over the course of the demand response event period from a utility provider; determining an energy-using characteristic of the HVAC system; determining a history of energy costs; and receiving information indicating a contracted per-amount monetary value of energy over the course of the demand response event period.
 17. The method of claim 11 wherein said modified HVAC schedule is determined by one or more of: receiving information defining one or more of the setpoint temperatures of the modified HVAC schedule from the energy consumer; generating one or more of the setpoint temperatures of the modified HVAC schedule via a learning algorithm; identifying one or more historical setpoint temperatures distributed over a time period prior to the demand response event period, wherein the historical setpoint temperatures correspond to time periods during which an outside temperature was approximately the same as an expected outside temperature during the demand response event period; determining an occupancy probability profile of the energy consumer, the occupancy probability profile indicating a likelihood of the structure to be occupied during the demand response event period; and identifying one or more setpoint temperatures distributed over the demand response event period from one or more other energy consumers associated with structures similar to that associated with the energy consumer.
 18. A method for carrying out demand response for a population of structures having environmental cooling systems controlled by a respective population of network-connected thermostats, comprising: enrolling a plurality of energy consumers to participate in a demand response program, each said energy consumer being associated with one of the population of structures; determining a demand response event profile defining at least one attribute of an upcoming demand response event included in the demand response program, the at least one attribute including one or more of a time at which the upcoming demand response event is to begin, a demand response event period, and a magnitude of the demand response event; accessing, for each of said plurality of enrolled energy consumers, at least one qualification factor that is at least partially representative of their suitability for participation in the upcoming demand response event; identifying a subset of the plurality of enrolled energy consumers to be offered participation in the upcoming demand response event, the subset being identified by processing said qualification factors in conjunction with said demand response event profile; and causing an offer to participate in the upcoming demand response event to be transmitted to each of the identified subset of enrolled energy consumers.
 19. The method of claim 18, wherein the qualification factors include one or more of: an expected amount of energy shifting resulting from the participation of the energy consumer in the upcoming demand response event; an occupancy probability profile indicating a probability that the structure associated with the energy consumer will be occupied during the upcoming demand response event; a real-time occupancy of the structure; a thermal retention characteristic of the structure; a cooling capacity of the cooling system relative to a volume of the structure to be cooled by the cooling system; a past behavior the energy consumer; a current demand response energy program enrollment status of the energy consumer; a wireless communication capability of the thermostat; a capability of the thermostat to access weather forecast data; a learning mode of the thermostat; a logical pairing between the thermostat and the structure; a logical pairing between the thermostat and a user account associated with the energy consumer; and a likelihood of the energy consumer to accept the offer of participation in the demand response event.
 20. The method of claim 18, further comprising calculating, for each energy consumer in the identified subset, one or more metrics indicative of an amount of energy likely to be shifted from the demand response event period to another time period as a result of the energy consumer participating the demand response event, wherein causing a request to participate in the upcoming demand response event to be transmitted to each of the identified subset of energy consumers includes, for each energy consumer in the identified subset, causing the one or more metrics associated with the energy consumer to be communicated to the energy consumer.
 21. The method of claim 18, wherein identifying the subset of the plurality of energy consumers to be offered participation in the upcoming demand response event includes selecting, from the plurality of energy consumers enrolled to participate in the demand response program, a subset thereof that would result in a fewest number of participating energy consumers that, in aggregate, are likely to shift a predetermined aggregate amount of energy from the demand response event period to another time period.
 22. The method of claim 18, further comprising: calculating an expected aggregate amount of energy shifting likely to result from participation of the subset of energy consumers in the upcoming demand response event; comparing the expected aggregate amount of energy shifting to a desired aggregate amount of energy shifting; and varying the size of the subset of energy consumers based on the result of the comparison between the expected aggregate amount of energy shifting to the desired aggregate amount of energy shifting.
 23. The method of claim 22 wherein calculating the expected aggregate amount of energy shifting includes determining an expected participation rate of the identified subset of energy consumers to participate in the upcoming demand response event and calculating the expected aggregate amount of energy shifting based on the expected participation rate of the identified subset of energy consumers.
 24. The method of claim 18, wherein, of the plurality of energy consumers enrolled to participate in the demand response program, the request to participate in the upcoming demand response event is communicated only to the identified subset of energy consumers.
 25. An intelligent, network-connected thermostat comprising: a user interface for displaying information to an energy consumer associated with a structure and receiving user inputs from the energy consumer; a connector for coupling the thermostat to a cooling system associated with the structure; a communications component for communicating with a remote server; a memory for storing a demand response event implementation profile that defines a plurality of setpoint temperatures distributed over a demand response event period of a demand response event, and a processor coupled to the user interface, the connector, the communications component, and the memory, the processor being operable to: control the cooling system to cool the structure in accordance with the setpoint temperatures defined by the demand response event implementation profile over the demand response event period, receive a requested change to one or more of the setpoint temperatures defined by the demand response event implementation profile; determine an impact on energy shifting that would result if the requested change is incorporated into the demand response event implementation profile; and communicate to the energy consumer information indicative of the impact on energy shifting that would result if the requested change is incorporated into the demand response event implementation profile.
 26. The thermostat of claim 25 wherein the processor is further operable to: determine whether the requested change would increase or decrease the amount of energy shifting if the requested change is incorporated into the demand response event implementation profile.
 27. The thermostat of claim 26 wherein the processor is further operable to: in response to determining that the requested change would increase the amount of energy shifting, incorporate the requested change into the demand response event implementation profile without further input from the energy consumer.
 28. The thermostat of claim 26 wherein the processor is further operable to: in response to determining that the requested change would decrease the amount of energy shifting, cause the user interface to request confirmation of the requested change prior to incorporating the requested change into the demand response event implementation profile.
 29. The thermostat of claim 26 wherein the processor is further operable to: in response to determining that the requested change would decrease the amount of energy shifting, eliminate or suspend participation of the energy consumer from the demand response event.
 30. The thermostat of claim 25 wherein the information indicative of an impact on energy shifting includes one or more of a monetary value and an amount of energy.
 31. The thermostat of claim 25 wherein the requested change is received prior to the demand response event period and information indicative of the impact on energy shifting is communicated to the energy consumer prior to the demand response event period.
 32. The thermostat of claim 25 wherein the requested change is received during the demand response event period and information indicative of the impact on energy shifting is communicated to the energy consumer during the demand response event period.
 33. An intelligent, network-connected thermostat associated with an energy consumer, the thermostat comprising: a housing defining a shape of the network-connected thermostat and including a cavity for receiving one or more components; a connector coupled to the housing for electrically connecting the thermostat to a cooling system associated with the structure; a communications component for communicating with a remote server; and a processor coupled to the communications component and the connector, the processor being operable to: control the cooling system to cool a structure associated with the thermostat in accordance with a plurality of setpoint temperatures defined by a demand response event implementation profile over a demand response event period of a demand response event; monitor at least the electrical connection to the cooling system for tampering activity indicative of an attempt to obviate implementation of the demand response event implementation profile; and perform one or more responses in the event that said tampering activity indicative of an attempt to obviate implementation of the demand response event implementation profile is detected.
 34. The thermostat of claim 33 wherein said being operable to monitor at least the electrical connection to the cooling system includes being operable to detect an electrical disconnect from the cooling system such that the thermostat is inoperable to control the cooling system.
 35. The thermostat of claim 33 wherein the processor is further operable to determine a likelihood of tampering activity based one or more of: whether a suspected tampering activity occurred before or after the energy consumer was notified of the demand response event; whether a change in cooling systems occurred; whether a change in possession of the thermostat, ownership of the thermostat, and/or structure in which the thermostat is located occurred; and whether the environmental conditions within the structure changed according to an expected implementation of the demand response event implementation profile.
 36. The thermostat of claim 33 wherein the responses to said tampering activity detection include one or more of: communicating a warning to the energy consumer that tampering with the thermostat may result in exclusion from participation in current and future demand response events; communicating a notification to a remote server that manages demand response events for a plurality of thermostats, the notification identifying the thermostat and indicating that the thermostat was tampered with; and communicating a notification to a remote server that manages demand response events for a plurality of thermostats, the notification identifying the thermostat and one or more factors indicative of a likelihood that the thermostat was tampered with.
 37. The thermostat of claim 33 wherein: the connector includes: a plurality of wire connectors, at least one of the wire connectors being operable to establish an electrical connection with a cooling control wire of the cooling system; and a two-position switch associated with the wire connector for the cooling control wire, the two-position switch being in a closed state or an open state depending on whether a wire is inserted therein; and the processor is operable to monitor the two-position switch to determine whether the open or closed state of the switch has recently changed, said recent change being potentially indicative of an attempt to obviate implementation of the demand response event implementation profile. 